NBA Finals Preview: How I See It!
Nothing makes a morning like a reminder from a reader that I have yet to put out a Final's preview blog and there was less than 12 hours before the tip. Presently, we are one hour away from tip-off and I have advised myself to save my money and not bet a cent! This improves my chances to actually be right about something and gives me enough money to golf this weekend.
Oh what a difference a year makes:
Spurs Changes Heat Changes
In
Jeff Ayres Michael Beasley
Marco Belinelli Toney Douglas
Austin Daye Justin Hamilton
Damion James Greg Oden
Out
Tracy McGrady Juan Howard (Sort of: Assistant Coach)
Nando De Colo Mike Miller
Dejuan Blair Jarvis Varnado
In my opinion, the Spurs did a better job of tweeking their lineup. While the Spurs are older, the Heat have aged more. Shane Battier, my favorite Heat player despite being a Dukie, looks like father time has caught up and passed him. The departure of Mike Miller to Memphis hurt them more than I thought it would. Despite early returns, Beasley has fizzled out and Oden never really got started. Chris Bosh has also changed his look as he doesn't attack the rim very often and is more comfortable shooting threes for a living. Wade seems to be in better shape than last year but he is a hard foul away from an early summer. Unfortunately, James has improved his killer instinct and is no longer Mr. Nice Guy Who Sits on the Fence. His reaction to the Sterling debacle demonstrated his willingness to take a stand and on the court he looks to control the final play.
The Spurs brought in Belinelli and he is a better scorer than the departed Gary Neal. He is also more likely to provide a spark off the bench and is a better fit in Pop's offense. Duncan looks to maintain his fine wine/ cheese persona and Borris Diaw looks less pudgy. The big difference for the Spurs could be McGrady; just kidding, I wanted to make sure you were not just skimming this. It could actually be veteran Ginobili. He looks to be in better shape and wants to improve on last year's poor performance.
Style of Play
The Heat still love to trap the screen using the Miami Show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htct7szExng
They double the ball on screens and everyone else recovers. The Heat are great in offensive transition. Unfortunately, Wade has a tendency to whine to refs and will jog back if he believes a call was missed. Half court sets often involve attacking and looking for the open man.
The Spurs are a Jekyll and Hyde team. When Parker is in the game, they run a lot of pick and roll. He will dribble the air out of the ball and it sometimes leaves teammates standing around. But when he is on, it can kill the opponent. Chalmers and Cole will have their work cut out for them guarding Parker. Then when Parker gets a rest, the Hyde ball movers come into the game and it is a thing of beauty. Against the Thunder, the Spurs had 500+ more passes during the series. Against the Heat, the Spurs will have to battle their busy defensive hands and it could open the door for some Miami runs.
Coaching
I love Pop and think he is a great coach. One on one against Spoelstra, I would give him the edge but it is not as great as you might think. The big difference in this matchup though is the man behind the scenes. Pat Riley is one of the greatest basketball minds of the last 35 years. I am sure Spoels bends his ear from time to time and Pops does not really have anyone but himself to help out. Pops also needs to bounce back from a bad final last year.
Expert Picks
Presently, 12 ESPN experts have the Spurs winning while 6 have the Heat winning. (Obviously, this is bulletin board material for Lebron!)
Vegas is a little less decided as they favor the Spurs by the slightest of margins.
In Canada, 63.5% of those who voted in the TSN poll has Miami winning.
Personal Thoughts
I am a sports history nut so I am intrigued beyond belief with this match-up. I think the Heat 3-peat is a great story and I don't hate Lebron like I did in 2010. However, I love the Spurs game and so many of the people within their organization. They are a true team and it would be great to see Duncan finally get one for the thumb.
Head Says: Don't bet against the Champs!
Heart Says: Let's get it done Duncan
Prediction: It's gonna be fun!
If I have to,
Each team will have a blow out win.
There will be 3 games within 5 points.
Lebron will set at least one finals record
Danny Green will set a final's 3 point record
Bosh will miss a game winner.
Duncan will never out of the game in the last 2 minutes if it is close unless he has fouled out or is injured.
Popovich will be fairly nice to the sideline reporters.
Spurs in 7.
