Super Bowl 51 Preview/Prediction
?We are less than 24 hours away from the biggest game in all of sports, the Super Bowl. Sunday evening, the New England patriots will face off against the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51, in a matchup the pits the number one versus the number one defense. In previous matchups of this sort, the number one defense has gone 6-1 in the Super Bowl against the number one offense. This certainly bolds well for the New England Patriots then right? Not so fast my friend.
The New England Patriots are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. After much turmoil in the beginning of the season with Tom Brady being suspended, the Patriots were still able to obtain a 14-2 record, and home field advantage throughout out the playoffs in the AFC. While getting Tom Brady back after his four game suspension was great for New England, this defense is what held this team together. Over the first four games of the season without Brady, New England went 3-1 and showed the world they are more than just the two-time MVP.
Over the course of the regular season, the Patriots held 11 of their opponents under 20 points, including three games where the opposition scored three or less. Was that because this Patriots defense is that good, or is it because of the opponents they had to play?
Only two games played this season for the Patriots had their defense go against a top 10 offense in yards or scoring (Pittsburgh and Arizona). Nine games were against teams that ranked 24th or worst in yards offensively and 21st or worst in points per game. A side note, when they played Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger did not play. So that means the Patriots faced Landry Jones.
Speaking of quarterbacks, the only top 10 QB in the league New England faced was Russell Wilson in Week 10. The end result of that game? A 31-24 loss for Tom Brady and company. The Quarterbacks this defense went up against are as followed: Bryce Petty, Jared Goff, Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, and Matt Moore just to name a few. This defense has not faced a team like Matt Ryan and the Falcons.
The Atlanta Falcons were the number one offense for a reason. Matt Ryan had a MVP season throwing for over 4,900 yards and 38 TDs. The most interesting stat for Matty Ice is he threw a touchdown to 13 different players. We all know is favorite target is Julio Jones, and for good reason, but Ryan knows how to distribute the ball. The offense doesn’t just stop with Matt Ryan. The Falcons have a two headed monster in the backfield by the names of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. These two backs rushed for a tick under 2,500 yards combined to go along with 24 touchdowns. The Falcons offense as a whole had 6,653 yards and 58 touchdowns. That means “Devonta Coleman” ,as some are calling this rushing duo, were nearly 40% of the teams production.
Defensively is where many aren’t talking about the Dirty Birds. Dan Quinn, the second year Head Coach for Atlanta, has a defensive background. He was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014 where they ranked first in total yards given up and points per game both years. Quinns defense in Atlanta his first year was average, which was a step up from the previous year. In fact, the 2014 season had Atlanta as the worst team in yards given up and 27th in points per game. In just one year Dan Quinn turned this defense into the 14th best in the league in terms of yards and points per game.
2016 started off shaky for this defensive group. They gave up 28 or more points in seven of their first ten games. In that stretch, they went 6-4. The last six games is where the defense came alive. Four of those games, Atlanta didn’t give up 20 points. In the first ten games of the season, the Falcons sacked the opposing QB 24 times and forced 10 turnovers. In the last six games of the season, Atlanta got to the QB 12 times and forced 11 turnovers. The defense got hot at the right time and it has carried throughout the playoffs.
The only thing that Atlanta hasn’t seen this year is exactly what they will be facing on Sunday, a complete team. Atlanta had wins over good teams like Oakland, Seattle, and Green Bay in the regular season or the post season, but those teams either had a good offense or good defense, not both at the same time. New England, as stated earlier, has the best defense in the league, but to make matters worse for Atlanta, the Patriots offense is ranked third. That may be a little much for this falcons team to overcome.
At the end of the day, this game is going to come down to one thing, which team makes the least amount of mistakes. The Hoodie and Tom Brady rarely make mistakes and on top of that, they have played on this stage six times previously. Matt Ryan and company did a great job this year at not making many mistakes, but they have never made it this far into the season.
Oh, want to know the last time New England had the best defense in the league and made it to the Super Bowl? That would be 2003, when they beat a NFC South opponent, Carolina Panthers, in Houston 32-29.
Give me the New England Patriots to beat the Atlanta Falcons 31-27. Who’s excited to see Tom Brady on stage with Roger Goodell? I know I am.
