Colts @ Texans Preview 10/16/16

Houston enters tonight's match-up a top of the AFC South at 3-2.  However, they only lead the tied for 2nd place teams, Titans and Colts, by one game.  The Texans were able to handle the Titans two weeks ago but have yet to play Andrew Luck and Co. this season. 

Offense: The Colts are not lacking in offense with Andrew Luck behind center.  He is averaging 2 passing TDs per game this season with only 3 picks on 1469 yards.  His go to wide-out is T.Y. Hilton and as long as he is healthy, he will continue to see targets and he's dangerous as he is averaging about 14.5 yards per catch with 35 receptions thus far.  Frank Gore is not having a breakout year but with an average of 4 yards per carry, he can ground and pound his way to a first down.  The biggest difference in offenses is at QB.  Brock Osweiler is having a rough and choppy start this season with 7 INT through 5 games already.  In order for the Texans to stay on top of the AFC South, Osweiler will need to settle down and start making much better decisions because he has two great WRs in Fuller (averaging 16 yards per catch and 2 TDs) and DeAndre Hopkings (averaging 13 yards per catch).  The Texans running game is comparable to the Colts with Lamar Miller running for about 74 yards/game.  As it sits for game day lineup, I do not see a major advantage for either offense if the Texans can keep their turnover margin in check. Winner: Andrew Luck is more consistent with less picks, he has an opportunity to make a big impact if he can keep the Texans defense on their heels.

Offense Winner: Colts with Andrew Luck

Defense (this will make or break the game tonight):  The obvious loss here is J.J. Watt's season ending injury for the Texans.  He is arguably the best DE in the NFL and easily a Hall of Famer if he can continue on the tear he's been on once he is healthy.  The Texans have needed someone to step up and Whitney Mercilus has started to take on the roll of getting to the QB.  The biggest issue between these two defenses is the Colts pass D is hurting and in need of some serious help.  They are allowing 307 yds/game in the air compared to 196 yds/game for the Texans.  Both teams rush defense is pretty solid and within 10 yds per game between the two teams and their respective offensive yards  are within 60 yards of each other. Winner: Texans defense is holding teams to 100 less yards per game than the Colts defense and the majority of that 100 yard difference is as a result of the Colts pass defense.

Defense Winner: Texans defense has been solid so far this season. Colts pass defense is their biggest downfall and will cost the Colts a win tonight.

Prediction:  The game tonight is at NRG Stadium in Houston and Osweiler is 3-0 this season at home.  He has some great receivers that can punish a subpar Colts pass defense.  If the Texans can keep their turnover margin in their favor tonight, Osweiler connects with Hopkins and Fuller with an average night out of the backfield, Osweiler will improve his home record to 4-0.  Texans by 7.

Texans by 7.