TCU Visiting Undefeated #12 WVU
Today at 2:30 pm CT, the TCU Horned Frogs (4-2) will be in Morgantown, WV to attempt an upset of the undefeated #12 Mountaineers. TCU may be an unranked 4-2 team however they are in a position to prove a challenge to the Mountaineers and potentially shaking up the top of the Big 12 leader board. Their two loses were close, tough games against Oklahoma and Arkansas losing by a combined 9 points. They have lost some key starters from last season and are in somewhat of a rebuild but they aren’t so young that you can discount their capabilities.
Break Down
QB: Kenny Hill ranks 5th in the NCAA for passing yards, throwing for 2142 yards so far with 12 TDs and there’s still plenty of football left in the season and with WVU’s somewhat inconsistent pass defense, this could prove to be a big key in how today’s game will end. However, WVU faced a great QB last week in Lubbock and was able to handle him and the Texas Tech offense. Offensively, both teams average within 3 yards of total offense per game of one another so even with Kenny Hill behind center for TCU, Skyler Howard and his offense is still just as explosive. Howard has the slight edge on passer rating but significantly less passing yards on the season. The TD passes and INT are relative when compared to overall pass yardage but the number that seems the most interesting is the sack number. Hill has been sacked 13 times, while Howard is tied for 6th in all of FBS for QBs with over 1000 yards passing with only 4 sacks. Bottom line, Hill has the slight edge in his passing game but overall, QB’s are comparable.
RB/WR: Kenny Hills and the TCU offense has the edge in the passing game but the Mountaineers have the edge in total rushing yards per game. Play-makers to keep an eye on: TCU’s Taj Williams is the key receiver with 506 yards on the season and 4 TDs with Shelton Gibson being WVU’s go to with 472 yards and 2 TDs. On the ground, WVU has Justin Crawford for 373 yards and 3 TD with Kyle Hicks of TCU going for 479 yards and 7 TDs. Neither RB has more than 2 games over 100 yards so neither team really has a player that outshines their counterpart. Regardless, all 4 players are expected to make key plays today that could be the difference in the game.
Defense: Being a sucker for ending a story with a bang, I saved the best for last and the defenses today will be the biggest key factor in who goes home the victor. TCU's defense is rank 65th overall compared to WVU's 16th ranking in the FBS with total yards allowed this season. WVU has a significant advantage over the Horned Frogs in points allowed per game. WVU's defense is only allowing 19 pts/game this season compared to the 30 pts/game TCU is allowing. The WVU defense has had an up down pass defense but overall, they are keeping teams to a manageable and beatable score coupled with an offensive that although not the best in the nation, can still punish you for your mistakes. The WVU has a 67% defensive efficiency while TCU is sitting at 48%. In overall efficiency across offense, defense, and special teams, WVU again has the edge at almost 72% compared to TCU's 59%. The defense is the biggest difference and will be the difference in this game this afternoon. If WVU's defense puts it on TCU like they did against Texas Tech, WVU will end the day 6-0 and remain a top of the Big 12 leader board and potentially find themselves in the top 10.
Prediction: WVU has shown they can play all angles of football very well and at the same time, they will need to continue that trend in order to hand TCU their 3rd loss of the season in convincing fashion. WVU is a big underdog in the world of FBS and it does not help that Big 12 is looked down upon by the majority of the big time analysts and announcers. Skyler Howard has to keep his INTs at no more than 1 and not give Hill an opportunity to capitalize on the turnover. Even with WVU's defense being one of the best in the nation right now, a big swing in momentum can hurt the Mountaineers. Respecting TCUs threat is paramount to keeping an undefeated season intact and TCU would love nothing more than to break it up. This spot is nothing new for WVU but this is typically the time of year they start to unravel so it is up to the team leaders to keep this team alive and going. This is a time for Howard's leadership to shine. He has to keep the offense productive and maximize on coverage's while being aggressive and not letting up. TCU can hurt you when you least expect it and you can’t let up against a big team like them. WVU's defense has to keep the pressure on Hill and take out his threat down field and disrupt their offensive flow. If WVU can do those things and execute effectively, I have WVU by 10.
WVU By 10!
