NFL Week 7: Texans (4-2) at Broncos (4-2) Monday Night Football Preview
Tonight’s matchup on Monday Night Football pits the AFC South’s leading Houston Texans versus the West’s Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium. The Texans are coming off a home win against the Colts while the Broncos are coming off back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Falcons, losing by a touchdown in each contest. Denver is sitting at 2-1 at home while the Texans have yet to win a road game this season but are perfect at NRG Stadium. The overall match-up appears to be fairly even for both team’s season numbers. Both defenses rank in the top of the conference for allowing the least amount of passing yards and total yards per game however, Houston recently placed CB Kevin Johnson on IR so they have lost a top-rated corner which could prove beneficial to the Broncos. The biggest difference coming from the relative tough offenses the teams have faced, giving the slight edge to Houston with a defensive rating of 80.4 compared to 71.0 for Denver. Offense is where the difference will most likely be tonight and the offense that executes the best while minimizing turn overs will be the winner.
Offense break down: Brock Osweiler had an amazing last 7 minutes of regulation against the Colts and performed excellent in overtime, however he was not able to get the Texans offense moving before that point. If the Texans offense starts off the same way this week, they will find themselves playing catch-up once more and will most likely find themselves with another loss. Brock has yet to finish a game without throwing an interception and is awful on the road. Osweiler has an overall QB rating of 74.1 compared to Siemians 92.4 but on the road, Brock is a low 58.3. Granted, Brock has more game time this season than Trevor Siemian but entering tonight’s game, Brock has 8 TD passes and has thrown 8 picks while Trevor has 7 TD passes to 3 interceptions. Additionally, Houston ranks last in the AFC with an average of 18 points per game and have not won a game when Osweiler has passed for < 200 yards and thrown < 2 TD passes. Broncos have the slight edge in receivers with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas both having over 400 yards with 3 TDs apiece. Houston has DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller both with over 300 yds on the season with 3 and 2 TDs respectfully. Houston has the edge on the ground however with Lamar Miller at 520 yards on the season but only 1 TD compared to C.J. Anderson who has 330 yards and 3 TDs on the season. The only drawback to the Denver offense is Siemian has not played exceptionally well at home this season with a home rating of 74.4 with only 1 passing TD and all 3 of his picks have come at home. Bottom line, Osweiler is horrible on the road and Siemian is slightly better at home than Osweiler is on the road. Since both defenses are very comparable across the board for total yards, passing, and rushing yards per game, the game will come down to QB performance and execution.
Takeaway: In order for Osweiler to notch his first road win this season, he will have to win the turnover battle which favors Denver who is +3 on the season compared to Houston’s -4. If he can execute like he did at the end of the Colts game, the Texans will win this one. However, considering his lack-luster performances on his first two road games this season, I do not expect much different until he starts to settle down in the pocket and become more patient. If the Denver defense can keep their pressure on him, Brock will crumble as he has shown he is very capable of doing, and can keep Lamar Miller from being able to move the ball down the field, Denver will walk away 5-2.
Winner: I give this one to Denver, winning by 7.
Broncos win by 7!
