Sep. 15, 2020
NFL Season Long Best Bets
The NFL season is finally upon us! Here are my favorite season long bets for the 2020 season.
Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins
The Cowboys finished a disappointing 8-8 last season. Their offensive and defensive units both improved this offseason. They drafted WR CeeDee Lamb with this first round pick and CB Trevon Diggs with their second round pick. They also signed DE Everson Griffen from the Vikings and DE Randy Gregory has been reinstated by the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins
I don't understand how the Chiefs' over/under is only 11.5 wins. Last season, the Chiefs went 12-4. Patrick Mahomes missed 3 games due to injury, the Chiefs lost 2 of them. The Chiefs should win at least 12 games, if not 13 or 14.
San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins
The 49ers surprised everyone and went 13-3 last season. Jimmy Garoppolo was coming off his ACL surgery and had a great season. Running Back Raheem Mostert broke out late last season and will start the season as the #1 back. The 49ers lost WR Emmanuel Sanders but return Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne and drafted Brandon Aiyuk. TE George Kittle is a monster over the middle. Defenses will have difficulty once again trying to defend this team. And speaking of defenses, the Niners lost DT DeForest Buckner but replaced him with first round pick Javon Kinlaw. The rest of the defense returns and young players Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw and Emmanuel Moseley should continue to improve.
Tom Brady under 4,225.5 passing yards
I'm not on the Tom Brady hype train this season. He's now 43 years old, on a new team, new system, and didn't have a preseason to build continuity with his new receivers. Last season with the Patriots, Brady had 4,057 passing yards.
Kyler Murray over 25.5 passing TDs
Last season, 12 quarterbacks threw for at least 26 touchdowns. Kyler will join that group in 2020. In his sophomore season and year number 2 of the Kliff Kingsbury system, the offense will be even better and more efficient. On top of that, the Cardinals added star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had 7 touchdowns last season and will give Kyler another red zone weapon.
Phillip Rivers under 26.5 passing TDs
Last season, Phillip Rivers had 23 touchdown passes. Now, Rivers is on a new team with an unfamiliar system and teammates, and he didn't have a preseason to build continuity with his receivers. The Colts also have a great offensive line and two running backs who can run the rock into the end zone with second year back Marlon Mack and rookie Jonathan Taylor. They should get the majority of the goal line work instead of passing into the end zone.
James Conner over 825.5 rushing yards
Mike Tomlin has made it clear that James Conner will be the bellcow back for the Steelers. He struggled with injuries last season, but in 2018, he played in 13 games and finished with 973 yards. As long as Conner stays healthy, he will get a bulk of the carries and will easily surpass the 825 rushing yard threshold.
Le'Veon Bell under 800.5 rushing yards
Bell has recently been practicing with the second team during the Jets' practices. The Jets signed Frank Gore this offseason. Bell had 789 rushing yards last season while averaging only 3.2 yards per rush. Gore had 599 rushing yards with 80 fewer carries than Bell.
CeeDee Lamb over 4.5 receiving TDs
Lamb is 6'2", 200 pounds, he will be a good red zone threat for Dak Prescott. He had 25 receiving touchdowns his last 2 years at Oklahoma. The Cowboys lost Jason Witten (4 touchdowns) and Randall Cobb (3 touchdowns) from last season, so there are plenty of red zone targets available for Lamb.
Devante Adams over 104.5 receptions
Last season, Adams had 83 receptions in 12 games. That would have been on pace for 110 receptions if he had played 16 games. Adams is the only reliable receiver Aaron Rodgers has right now. If he plays 16 games, he'll see more than 150 targets. Also, with the limited numbers of practices and no preseason, defenses will suffer, especially in the beginning of the season. The Rodgers to Adams connection will feast this season.