NFL Statistical Playoff Probabilities After Week 7

By Derek Leger
Oct. 18, 2016

Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports


Since 1995, teams that have started 5-0 have a 90% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 5-0 win 12.1 games that season.
List of 5-0 teams: 
Minnesota Vikings 


Since 1995, teams that have started 5-1 have an 81% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 5-1 win 11 games that season.
List of 5-1 teams: 
New England Patriots 
Dallas Cowboys 


Since 1995, teams that have started 4-1 have a 74% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 4-1 win 10.6 games that season.
List of 4-1 teams: 
Seattle Seahawks 



Since 1995, teams that have started 4-2 have a 60% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 4-2 win 9.5 games that season.
List of 4-2 teams:
Buffalo Bills 
Pittsburgh Steelers 
Houston Texans 
Oakland Raiders 
Denver Broncos 
Washington Redskins 
Atlanta Falcons 


Since 1995, teams that have started 3-2 have a 48% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 3-2 win 8.8 games that season.
List of 3-2 teams: 
Kansas City Chiefs 
Philadelphia Eagles 
Green Bay Packers 


Since 1995, teams that have started 3-3 have a 37% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 3-3 win 8.2 games that season.
List of 3-3 teams: 
Baltimore Ravens 
Tennessee Titans 
New York Giants 
Detroit Lions 
Los Angeles Rams 
Arizona Cardinals 


Since 1995, teams that have started 2-3 have a 22% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 2-3 win 7.1 games that season.
List of 2-3 teams: 
Jacksonville Jaguars 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
New Orleans Saints 


Since 1995, teams that have started 2-4 have a 9% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 2-4 win 6.4 games that season.
List of 2-4 teams: 
Miami Dolphins 
Cincinnati Bengals 
Indianapolis Colts 
San Diego Chargers 



Since 1995, teams that have started 1-5 have a 1% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 1-5 win 4.9 games that season.
List of 1-5 teams: 
Carolina Panthers 
San Francisco 49ers 
Chicago Bears 
New York Jets 


Since 1995, teams that have started
0-6 have a 0% chance of making the playoffs that season. On average, teams that start 0-6win 3.2 games that season.
List of 0-6 teams: 
Cleveland Browns