2018 FIFA World Cup Final: One Year Away
One team will raise the FIFA World Cup Trophy in Moscow, Russia, 365 days from today. Over half the eligible field of countries has been weeded out of contention, but dozens have yet to be eliminated in the months before the group stage draw in December. At this point, only three of the 32 teams to fill the group stage have been decided: Russia, the host nation, Brazil, and Iran. Twenty-nine more teams will claim their spots over the next several months. With plenty of time before the draw and the build-up to the actual tournament, let us review the nations fighting still fighting to qualify for the tournament at this point.
Locks (By Order of Qualification)
#63 Russia - Considering the former USSR once finished 4th in the 1966 World Cup, the #63 world ranking Russia currently holds is quite lousy. They have only qualified due to their winning bid to host the tournament back in 2010. Don't expect this squad past the group stages unless they rig the draw. Their sub-par performance in the home-based Confederations Cup shows this team needs improvement if they want to do that.
#1 Brazil - The #1 ranked country in the world has found their way back into the group stage of the World Cup, qualifying over a year before the start of the tournament. One of the most decorated national teams of all time, Brazil has reached the quarterfinals in seventeen of the twenty FIFA World Cups. They look to make it back with Neymar leading the surge.
Pictured: Brazil defending a Chilean free kick at Copa America.
#30 Iran - Through eight games in the AFC third round of World Cup qualification, Team Melli has won six and drawn just two, with no losses. The remarkable thing about this unbeaten run is that only eight Iranian goals were scored in six matches. Their defense has been perfect--zero goals in 720 minutes of football. Eight straight clean sheets (2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0 in home games, and 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, and 0-0 in away games) and counting have been maintained by the Iranian defense, led by backup-turned-starting goalie Alireza Beiranvand. Iran is back in the group stage and will hope to ride their wave all the way to the knockout stage next year.
Teams Left in Qualification
AFC (In order by points)
#45 Japan
#53 Saudi Arabia
#48 Australia
#43 South Korea
#62 Uzbekistan
#75 United Arab Emirates
#77 Syria
#88 Qatar
#82 China PR
Japan and South Korea are the best bets to get in from this group. Japan is already nearly qualified and South Korea leads the other group. I like Saudi Arabia over Australia in Group A, and Saudi Arabia over Uzbekistan in the play-off to advance to a play-off tie with Honduras for a World Cup berth.
CAF
#39 DR Congo (6), #41 Tunisia (6), #72 Guinea (0), #92 Libya (0)
#38 Nigeria (6), #32 Cameroon (2), #99 Zambia (1), #53 Algeria (1)
#47 Ivory Coast (4), #56 Morocco (2), #86 Gabon (2), #66 Mali (1)
#41 Burkina Faso (4), #65 South Africa (4), #27 Senegal (3), #84 Cape Verde (0)
#20 Egypt (6), #71 Uganda (4), #49 Ghana (1), #85 Congo (0)
DR Congo and Tunisia have effectively broken away from the rest in Group A. They play a home-away tie on September 1st and 5th, which will likely decide which squad will see the World Cup next year.
Nigeria is in a comfortable position to make the World Cup from Group B, I see no situation where they give up the lead in this group, even with Cameroon just four points behind.
Cote D'Ivoire, or the Ivory Coast in English, currently has a slim lead over the pack, but I'm going to go off on a whim and say that Morocco will come back and win the group. Their two 0-0 ties were a display of offensive patience and defensive perfection. If they can get the ball in the back of the net against Mali and get four or six points out of that tie, I feel as though they will overwhelm Ivory Coast and steal their spot from Group C to qualify.
If there is a "group of death" in the CAF qualification, it has to be Group D. Burkina Faso is the surprise leader in a tight race between them, South Africa, Senegal, and even Cape Verde, sitting just four points from first place despite losing their first two qualification matches by two goals each. As of right now, I'll say South Africa has the best chance of going, just based on their experience (they hosted back in 2010), but it's a toss-up. A trip to the World Cup is up in the air.
Similarly to Group A, Group E is a two-team race between Egypt and Uganda. Their home-and-away tie, played during the same week as the DR Congo-Tunisia set, will likely decide the group and the spot in the World Cup. Egypt has a two-point lead on Uganda, so a loss for Uganda would be devastating.
CONCACAF (In order by points)
#17 Mexico
#19 Costa Rica
#23 United States
#59 Panama
#69 Honduras
#77 Trinidad and Tobago
Pictured: Christian Pulisic of the United States makes a pass.
Mexico and Costa Rica are near-locks for the World Cup. The United States is nearing that point but they are not there yet. Panama, Honduras, and Trinidad and Tobago are fighting for the playoff spot at the moment. Although they currently sit in fifth, I believe Honduras will steal a win and edge out Panama for the play-off spot.
CONMEBOL
#5 Colombia
#16 Uruguay
#4 Chile
#2 Argentina
#24 Ecuador
#15 Peru
#36 Paraguay
Argentina needing a play-off to get through? At the moment, yes, but I think they will overtake Chile for a direct qualification. Colombia and Uruguay are also in. Chile must defeat the winner of the New Zealand-Solomon Islands tie to qualify. Ecuador, Peru, and Paraguay are on the outside looking in.
OFC
#95 New Zealand vs. #180 Solomon Islands
The probable winner, New Zealand, will be forced to face the fifth-place finisher from the CONMEBOL qualifiers. That would-be opponent is currently the defending World Cup runner-up Argentina, ranked #2 in the world. The OFC will likely not be represented in the knockout stage, if the tournament at all.
UEFA
A - #34 Sweden (13), #6 France (13), #31 Netherlands (10), #60 Bulgaria (9)
B - #9 Switzerland (18), #8 Portugal (15)
C - #3 Germany (18), #28 Northern Ireland (13), #44 Czech Republic (9), #76 Azerbaijan (7)
D - #50 Serbia (12), #26 Ireland (12), #13 Wales (8), #35 Austria (8)
E - #11 Poland (16), #52 Montenegro (10), #51 Denmark (10)
F - #14 England (14), #21 Slovakia (12), #56 Slovenia (11), #61 Scotland (8)
G - #10 Spain (16), #12 Italy (16)
H - #7 Belgium (16), #40 Greece (12), #29 Bosnia and Herzegovina (11), #91 Cyprus (7)
I - #18 Croatia (13), #22 Iceland (13), #25 Turkey (11), #37 Ukraine (11)
Pictured: Iceland defender Hjortur Hermansson with a nice display of sportsmanship.
UEFA Longshots (Points behind second place)
#83 Belarus (-8), #33 Hungary (-8), #123 Georgia (-9), #161 Moldova (-10), #46 Romania (-4), #68 Armenia (-4), #104 Lithuania (-7), #66 Albania (-7), #55 Israel (-7), #98 Estonia (-8)
Belarus could only manage a draw with already-eliminated Luxembourg. I've seen enough. Group A is a four-team race. Bulgaria is a longshot and the 2010 World Cup runners-up Netherlands need to pull some tricks out of the hat if they want to get in the mix with Sweden and France.
In Group B, Andorra's 1-0 upset of Hungary in June in front of just 2,400 Andorran fans all but ruined the Hungarian 2018 World Cup Bid. To be fair, Switzerland and Portugal are two extremely strong teams and Group B was just an unlucky draw for the #33 national team in the world. The Faroe Islands, Andorra, and Latvia can all technically qualify via play-off but it is unlikely any of the three will survive the August 31st to September 3rd stretch.
Germany and Northern Ireland should pull away from the rest of Group C, but Serbia (!!) and Ireland's four-point lead on Wales and Austria in Group D is not as promising. Gareth Bale has not been called up for a national team game for months due to his suspension for a second yellow card back in March against Ireland, meaning Wales could be the highest world-ranked team to miss the cut.
Montenegro is the lowest-seeded second-place team in UEFA Qualifying at the moment, meaning if the first round were to end today, they would be the only second-place team not to make the second round. Poland has all but sealed a spot in the World Cup, leading Group E by six points.
Group F is a four-team race between England, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Scotland, all separated by just four points.
Group G is all but won by Spain and Italy, with the team that finishes in second in a good position to win the second-round tie and advance to the World Cup comfortably.
The penultimate Group H is a three-way battle between Belgium, Greece, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As it stands right now, Belgium looks to be the only team that will qualify for the Cup from this group.
Croatia and Iceland lead Group I, but Turkey and Ukraine are just two points back from first place. First place is wide open and two teams will likely enter the World Cup from this group.
Possible Play-Off Scenarios
Saudi Arabia vs. Honduras
Chile vs. New Zealand
The 32 as of Today
Group A (Locks) - Russia, Brazil, Iran, Japan
Group B (Very Likely) - Nigeria, Mexico, Poland, Colombia
Group C (Likely) - Egypt, Costa Rica, Germany, Uruguay
Group D (Probable) - United States, Belgium, South Korea, Spain
Group E (Possible) - Switzerland, England, South Africa, Portugal
(Toss-ups)
Group F - Australia, Chile, Italy, DR Congo
Group G - Serbia, Morocco, France, Argentina
Group H - Saudi Arabia, Iceland, Honduras, Croatia
Close But No Cigar
Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Slovakia, Greece, Montenegro, Uzbekistan, Panama, Tunisia, New Zealand, Solomon Islands
Check back next month for more World Cup information!
