Giants/Packers preview
After a bye, Green Bay is back in action Sunday night against the New York Giants. New York is 2-2, but has lost its last two, while the Packers come in at 2-1. Green Bay has not played in two weeks, while the Giants just played on Monday night. The Green and Gold will be without Sam Shields once again as well as Jared Cook, but everybody else who missed the Detroit game will more than likely be back. Aaron Rodgers will try to build upon his game against the Lions in which he tossed four touchdown passes. And, of course, the spotlight will be on Giants star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who has has had major blow-ups the past two weeks. The Giants will give the Packers opportunities for takeways, so the Green Bay secondary will have to take advantage. If they do that, Green Bay should win comfortably.
When Green Bay runs the ball...
Fantasy owners of Eddie Lacy have been frustrated with the lack fantasy production. However, when you look closer at the numbers, the big running back is actually having a nice year. He is quietly averaging five yards per carry. Although rushing for only 214 yards so far, he has only carried the ball 43 times so gar. The is an average of just 14.3 attempts per game, which is not enough carries. The Detroit game was a good start, carrying the ball 17 times for 103 yards, but he needs the ball at least 20 times a game to wear defenses down. New York is third in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. However, the Giants allowed Minnesota’s Jerick McKinnon to run for 85 yards and a touchdown. Lacy could find some room on the ground against the New York front seven, especially if he receives 20 carries and Rodgers has success through the air. I still believe the Packers should run the ball to open up the pass, and it all starts with big Ed.
Edge: Push
When Green Bay passes the ball...
Rodgers is looking to build upon his four touchdown pass performance against Detroit with another big game this week. New York has been middle of the pack so far in terms of pass defense so far, but is the only team in the NFL without an interception. The Giants also have just four sacks on the season, which is tied for last in the league. If they can’t put any pressure on Rodgers, he will carve them up. Cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are listed as questionable for the game. If neither can go like last week, Rodgers will have a field day. Going into week five, Jordy Nelson was tied for the league lead with four touchdown receptions, so look for Rodgers to throw it early and often to Nelson.
Edge: Packers
When New York runs the ball...
Rashad Jennings is 50/50 to play, but he will probably sit this one out, which means Orleans Darkwa will receive the bulk of the carries once again. New York is 18th in the NFL in rushing average with a 3.9 yards per carry average. Green Bay, on the other hand, is No. 1 in the league in rush defense by a wide margin. The Packers have allowed just 42.7 yards per game on the ground and a microscopic 1.8 yards per carry. Granted, they have not played the cream of the crop of rush offenses in their first three games, but very impressive nonetheless. The Packers will get back Letroy Guion and Clay Matthews back, which will be a big help as well. Green Bay will need to stop the New York running game in order to force Eli Manning into long third downs.
Edge: Packers
When New York passes the ball...
This is the toughest matchup for the Packers on the day. Manning will drop back to pass and throw it at least 40 times. Cornerback Damarious Randall has had a miserable start to the season so far and with Shields out again, he will draw the assignment of covering Beckham. Manning also has other weapons as well in Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard. Green Bay is averaging giving up 307 passing yards per game, while the Giants are fourth in passing yards per game. Green Bay needs to put pressure on the Giants quarterback with Matthews and Nick Perry to force him into poor decisions. Manning has thrown four picks on the year and New York has turned the ball over nine times this season. The Packers need to take advantage of that, as the Giants are a -8 in turnover differential so far this season, which is 30th in the league. Look for New York to air it out early and often on Sunday night.
Edge: Giants
Special Teams
New York has had one of the better special teams units in the league so far this season. It is a small sample size, but the Giants are No. 11 in kickoff return average, while the Packers are No. 22. Green Bay is last in the league at punt return average. Both teams have good kickers, but the Giants are also better at punting. New York is also much better at covering kicks and punts as well. This one is a no-brainer in favor of New York.
Edge: Giants
Prediction: Packers 41, Giants 24
