Lions/Packers preview
The weekend continues with another matchup between the state of Wisconsin and the state of Michigan. Like the Hail Mary ending in 2011 between the Spartans and Badgers, the Packers and Lions had a Hail Mary ending the last time these two teams played. Detroit jumped out to a 20-0 third quarter lead, but the Packers scored 27 of the game’s final 30 points to pull out the win. On the last play of the game, Aaron Rodgers launched a Hail Mary into the end zone that was caught by Richard Rodgers to win the game. I am guessing that play will be replayed a few times during tomorrow’s game. However, the last time these teams met at Lambeau Field, it was Detroit ending a long losing streak in the state of Wisconsin with an 18-16 win. Jordy Nelson will be playing this time around and, while not 100 percent, he is getting closer. Each team will be without multiple starting defenders. Both teams come in at 1-1 and are looking to keep pace with Minnesota in the NFC North race.
When Green Bay runs the ball...
Eddie Lacy has rushed for 111 yards in two games. Not impressive. But he has only rushed 26 times in the two games, good for a 4.3-yard average. It is not spectacular, but certainly not bad. In this game, Lacy needs to be fed the ball early and often. The Packers need to run Lacy to open up the passing attack instead of dropping back to pass 40 times and running it half as much. Detroit has allowed 5.1 yards per carry in the first two weeks neither opponent is what I would consider a great running team. Lacy will need the ball this game. Not only to keep Detroit’s offense off the field, but Green Bay’s banged up defensive unit as well.
Edge: Packers
When Green Bay passes the ball...
Everybody is sitting and waiting for Rodgers to break out of his lengthy slump. This would seem like a solid opportunity to beak through, as Detroit has allowed an average of 312 passing yards per game in the first two weeks and a completion percentage of 70 percent. The Lions defense has allowed six touchdowns to a combination of Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota. That is not quite the cream of the crop at the quarterback position. In his last 14 games, Rodgers has just 5.95 yards per attempt. In his first 116, he had 8.22 yards per attempt, which was third all-time. He also has not had a passer rating of 100+ in any of those 14. Normally, this would be a slam dunk edge for the Packers, but not so much right now with Rodgers struggling so mightily. I still believe the Packers should try to run the ball to open up the passing attack. Rodgers will break out of his slump eventually. He is too good not to. But will it be this week? Until he proves otherwise, I will remain skeptical.
Edge: Push
When Detroit runs the ball...
The Lions have not been a good running team for years. That will not change this year as starting running back Ameer Abdullah was placed on injured reserve. Detroit has run the ball well against Indianapolis and Tennessee, gaining 253 yards and an average of 5.4 yards per carry. Abdullah was averaging 5.6 yards per carry, but now he is on injured reserve. Theo Riddick now becomes the starting running back. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but is still a much better receiving threat than he is a running one. However, the Lions are running into a Packers defense that is leading the league in rush defense. Green Bay has allowed just 78 yards on 48 carries in the first two games, for just 1.6 yards per rush. Granted, the offensive lines of Jacksonville and Minnesota are not exactly great, but still impressive nonetheless. Mike Daniels is continuing to be a beast. However, Clay Matthews and Morgan Burnett are out and Datone Jones and Letroy Guion are doubtful. If the Packers can force the Lions into third-and-longs, the Green and Gold will be in good shape. Reddick and Dwayne Washington are capable backups, but losing Abdullah will be hard to overcome.
Edge: Packers
When Detroit passes the ball...
Going into the season, many thought the Detroit passing game would regress considerably after the retirement of Calvin Johnson. Free agent pickup Marvin Jones is no Megatron, but he has done quite well in his first two games with the Lions. Jones has 12 catches for 203 yards in the first two weeks and even though he has not done much so far, Golden Tate is still a nice receiving target for the Motor City Kitties. Add in the fact that Green Bay once again will be without Sam Shields and Matthew Stafford could have a big week. Green Bay also needs to somehow generate a pass rush without Matthews tomorrow. Detroit will throw early and often against the Packers secondary, especially after Damarious Randall was torched by Stefon Diggs last week. That does not even take into account Riddick coming out of the backfield. Stafford has many weapons at his disposal and the Packers have a banged up secondary. Green Bay needs to slow done this passing attack in order to win.
Edge: Lions
Special Teams
Detroit has a tremendous special teams unit. Washington is a decent return man as a kick returner and Green Bay allowed a couple of nice returns to Minnesota’s Cordarrelle Patterson last week. Both kickers are very good, although Detroit’s Matt Prater did miss an extra point in Indianapolis and missed a pair of extra points in last year’s meeting at Lambeau Field. Detroit has a great punter in Sam Martin, who has averaged 50 yards per punt in his nine punts and an impressive seven punts inside the 20. It will be tough to consistently drive the length of the field, even though Detroit’s defense is not good and banged up.
Edge: Lions
Overview
I think Lacy will have a big game this week. After having 26 carries combined in the first two weeks, I have a feeling the big running back will have 20-25 carries and will deliver 100+ yards and a score or two. I think Rodgers will make a step toward returning to form, throwing for 250+ and a few touchdowns. Stafford will keep the Lions in the game, at least for awhile. However, he will give the Packers defensive backs chances for interceptions. Both teams are really banged up on defense, so I expect a shootout. It will be nice to be back at Lambeau for the first time in more than a month, and Green Bay will feed off the crowd to get the win.
Prediction: Packers 37, Lions 27
