Wisconsin/Michigan preview
If you would have told me before the year that Wisconsin would start out the season 4-0, I would have thought you were crazy. But here we are, with the No. 8 Badgers at 4-0 and are about to try to tackle their biggest tests to date in back-to-back games. First off, the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Michigan is also 4-0 and has scored at least 45 points in all four games with the closest margin of victory being 17. Wisconsin is coming to Ann Arbor off a dominating 30-6 win in East Lansing against Michigan State. This is one of three matchups between top 10 teams this weekend. Both defenses are very good, but Michigan has a significant edge on offense and in special teams. However, the Badgers will have to deal with the loss of star linebacker Vince Biegel for a month or so. This will be the first time these two teams have met since Wisconsin won a 48-28 decision in Ann Arbor in 2010. It will be an intriguing game as both teams have something to prove and a win could catapult either team to a trip to Indianapolis......or maybe even the playoffs.
When Wisconsin runs the ball...
Michigan has one of the best front sevens in the nation. It will be a tall task for the Wisconsin offensive line, but there is no doubt they’re up for the challenge. The Badgers only averaged three yards per carry last week in East Lansing and while the Spartans front seven is very good, it is not as talented as Michigan’s. Jon Dietzen will need to play in the game in order to possibly have success in the running game. The Badgers will need to be able to get the running game going. In his first career start, Hornibrook was able to convert a number of third downs, but Michigan is a different animal. Wisconsin will need to be able to move the ball running it instead of putting Hornibrook in the tough position of having to consistently convert 3rd-and-5+. The Badgers struggled without Dietzen, but were able to move the ball consistently on the ground with Dietzen in the lineup. Running the ball would also help open up the passing game, specifically play action passes.
Edge: Michigan (especially if Dietzen is out)
When Wisconsin passes the ball...
Michigan’s defensive coordinator Don Brown blitzes frequently and Hornibrook will have to prepare for that. Because of it, the Wisconsin receivers will have plenty of single coverage and will need to win some of those one-on-one matchups. The Wolverines secondary is better than Michigan State’s, so Hornibrook will have to take his game to another level in Ann Arbor. He will have to utilize tight end Troy Fumagalli since his matchup might be the most winnable. Michigan’s front will put more pressure on the Badgers quarterback than the Spartans, but Hornibrook has shown the willingness to stand in the pocket and will deliver the ball on target while being hit. This goes along with the running game, but Wisconsin will not be able to afford to be behind the chains and consistently have 3rd-and-longs like it did against Michigan State. The Wolverines lead the nation in third down defense, allowing just six third down conversions in 50 chances. No team has converted more than twice in any one game. It will be interesting to see how Hornibrook does against this Michigan defense.
Edge: Michigan
When Michigan runs the ball...
The Wolverines are averaging 230 yards per game on the ground, while Wisconsin is 10th in rushing yards allowed per game with just 80.5. I think Wisconsin has been more impressive in this matchup so far, as the Badgers have slowed down both Leonard Fournette and L.J. Scott, two of the better running backs in college football. Fournette ended up averaging six yards per carry, but he did most of his damage in the second half on a few long runs. Michigan has not played a great defense yet. The loss of Biegel hurts, but Ryan Connelly showed he is up to the challenge after filling in for Chris Orr when he was injured on the first defensive snap of the season. ‘Three sack Jack’ Cichy will likely take over at outside linebacker, with Connelly starting at inside linebacker. It has been a struggle with injuries for the Badgers vaunted linebacking core. Not once this year have the four linebackers projected to start in 2016 taken the field together for a regular season game. Of those four (Biegel, Orr, T.J. Edwards, T.J. Watt), only Watt has stayed healthy this season. Even without Biegel, Wisconsin still has a solid pass rush, led by Watt. So Wisconsin needs to slow down the run and force Michigan’s sophomore quarterback, Wilton Speight, to beat them through the air on third downs. If the Badgers cannot slow down the Wolverines rushing attack, it will be a long day for Wisconsin’s defense.
Edge: Wisconsin
When the Wolverines are passing the ball...
LSU and Akron both have solid starting receivers, but Michigan’s duo of Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh at wide receiver is one of the best in country. Throw in one of the best tight ends in the country in Jake Butt and it is a deadly passing attack for the Wolverines. Wisconsin will need to put pressure on Speight to have a chance to slow down the passing attack. Without Biegel, it is a bit more challenging, but Cichy is a very capable fill-in. Michigan has a good and experienced offensive line, so putting pressure on the Michigan quarterback will be tough. Sojourn Shelton has played really well so far this season for the Badgers, so it would not shock me to see Derrick Tindal being picked on quite a bit tomorrow. Butt is also a big target for Speight and the Badgers will have to know where he lines up every play. I mentioned Michigan is great at third down defense, but Wisconsin is not bad either. The Badgers have allowed just 24 percent on third down (11-of-45), which ranks 11th in the country. The key will be getting the Wolverines into third down. Well, that and seeing how the Badgers do in their first game without one of their senior leaders on defense.
Edge: Michigan
Special Teams
I can’t think of any team in the country that would have an edge over Michigan when it comes to special teams. The Wolverines have the most dynamic return man in college football in Jabrill Peppers, who can take it the distance any time he touches the ball. And even when he does not touch the ball on a punt, he affects field position when the opposition tries to kick the ball away from him. Even if the Badgers were at full strength, this would still be a big Michigan victory. But with the news that kicker Rafael Gaglianone is out for the season and kick returner Natrell Jamerson still out, this becomes more lopsided. Fortunately, Michigan’s kicker is not off to a great start. After missing just four field goals in 22 attempts last season, Kenny Allen has already missed two in six attempts this season. Andrew Endicott will handle the place kicking duties once again for the Badgers. He missed an extra point last week, but then proceeded to drill a 41-yard field goal to give Wisconsin a 23-6 lead.
Edge: Michigan
Prediction: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 10
