COX PLATE DAY
Race 1 First race is a lottery with the majority of the field being unraced, Have to go with the exposed for in Luiza, won impressively in Sydney first-up and is in the right stable. Institution looks to be a handy type for team Smerdon, worked well at the Valley on Tuesday morning. Would be happy to see market support. Miss Wahoo was good enough first-up to warrant support It’s just a question of how good are these first starters.
Numbers 8-6-9-13
Race 2 O’Malley has raced in better races than this in his two previous starts at the Valley behind Hetherly and Wild Rain respectively. Gets the class relief and goes down 4.5kg, will get the speed on here and look for him to be swooping late. Trevinder raced against Hellbent and Sheidel last time out at Caulfield, last race over this track and distance was a forget as he raced 5 wide the trip and was entitled to drop look, with an easier run here look for significant improvement. Gun Case got everything made to order last start getting the perfect run and gap when needed, It was a good win but the margin flattered him. Is more than capable of running a big race though, I’m watchful of Diamond Oasis who barely missed in this race last start, probably isn’t going as well as last year but needs to be respected.
Numbers 10-6-7-3
Race 3 Happy to forgive Prompt Response, did a great job to keep going and finish 5th last start after receiving a big jump around the 200m, In a race with an even field I think she can improve significantly here. My Country just missed Hear the Chant in the dying stages of the Thoroughbred Club which is the predominant form reference for this race, only has to produce that run to figure in the finish. Sweet Sherry ran a suburb third in the Atlantic Jewel last start behind Merriest and Whispering Brook, she has the best form in the race, my concern is drawing the outside barrier, she likes to settle midfield and will more than likely have to do it tough here. Overstep has a weaker form line but worked impressively Tuesday at the valley and is drawn to box seat.
Numbers 6-4-3-13
Race 4 Forget that Archives went around in the Guineas Prelude, he was three wide the entirety and pulled hard. He worked well with stablemate Holler Tuesday morning running a very impressive last 200m, expecting a very big run. Ken’s Dream should’ve been unbeaten going into the Blue Sapphire stakes, he gets back to the Valley which holds no fears and should run well. Palladian looks a very promising type from Sydney, this is a big step up in grade and his first time at the Valley but he impressed me so much last start i have to put him in the numbers here. Dalradian was exceptional behind an erratic Flying Artie in the Blue Sapphire stakes last start beating Ken’s Dream home, that could’ve well been his peak run and I want to see that performance again before I back him.
Numbers 2-1-6-3
Race 5 Metaphorical was impressive first in the Lets Elope behind Don’t Doubt Mamma, was then unlucky second up, he gets out too a mile here which will suit down to the ground. Last start at the Valley was a third in the Sunline Stakes to Miss Rose De Lago, that’s good enough here. Lady Le Fay is a smart type finishing a close second to Dixie Blossoms last start, I priced her at around the 5-1 mark however, expecting her to drifit from that 2.60 quote. Alaskan Rose worried me that she peaked on her run at around the 100m last start behind Euro Angel, however she worked the house down Tuesday morning so on that I’m willing to forgive. Antelucan raced bravely last time out behind Euro Angel but was no match for her, has to be included in the numbers.
Numbers 4-1-9-7
Race 6 I Am A Star got the run of the race In the Thousand Guineas to finish a close runner-up to Global Glamour, drawn to get the same type of run again and only has to replicate the run to be winning or going very close here. The Waller visitor Sezanne poses a real threat, was only 2.5L away from two stars in Global Glamour and Yankee Rose, Wide gate and first time around the Valley at the Melbourne way of going are my concerns, is good enough to win. I’m willing to forgive Stop Making Sense’s flop last start after she was found to have internal bleeding whilst i don’t think she’s up to the class of the top two she is certainly over the odds. Chipanda, Exocet and La Luna Rossa are all ones to through in your excotics.
Numbers 1-3-6-4
Race 7 The United States won the Moonee Valley Cup on this day last year defeating Prince Of Penzance, He then beat Hauraki and Criterion in the Autumn and finished second to Lucia Valentina in the Queen Elizabeth, he was fantastic in his return run in the Feehan Stakes being three wide the trip and getting checked around the home turn only finishing four lengths from the winner, WIll be fitter here and ready to win. Ulmann is the horse in form for the D.K.Weir stable, won well enough last start and from the inside draw should get a gun run and be in the finish. He Or She is coming back from a throw at the stumps behind Winx and Black Heart Bart, this is obviously easier and look him to be flashing late. Royal Raptures winning ways broke last start bue he always runs an honest race.
Numbers 1*-8-3-5
Race 8 This is a race in two for mine. I’m going with Excess Knowledge he’s progressed through his runs well this campaign and Gai will have him peaking for this run, His run last start behind Almandin suggested that he’s ready to win. Sydney cup winner Gallante first up run was unbelievably good behind Jameka beating Excess Knowledge home and the jump in trip will suit. Willing to go around Who Shot Thebarman, he just hasn’t struck me as a horse that’s ready to win so far this campaign and will need to lift to win this. An unknown on the International Second Wave, this looks a match race for me though.
Numbers 4-1-3-9
Race 9 Not saying anything that anyone doesn’t already know but this will surely be a Cox Plate for the ages, I’m going with the mighty mare Winx, she’s proven herself time and time again and has been there and done this before. While she won’t get the dream passage through when The Cleaner rolls off the fence this year I’ve seen nothing that convinces me to tip to otherwise. Gate three is ideal and should be sitting behind hartell more than likely one out and two back. Hartnell has flourished into a star winning the Chelmsford and Hill stakes in Sydney but a space and then coming to Melbourne and winning the Turnbull smashing Caulfield Cup winner Jameka. Winx is however on another level and it will be intriguing to see how he measures up to her. I’m under the impression that Yankee Rose is a very special filly, her win in the Spring Champion Stakes shouldn’t be taken lightly and with the 47.5kg will be very competitive and in another other Cox Plate I’d almost be taking her on top, my one query is D.Yendall is far from a big race rider. Vadamos is the obvious watch horse.
Numbers 8-3-10-6
Race 10 Prized Icon was very good behind Yankee Rose and Swear in the Spring Champion stakes, was in the top three from trackwork on Tuesday sizzling the last 400m and handling the Valley very well, drawn ideally, very happy to be in his corner. I’ve waiting for Harlow Gold to get to a trip, She draws wide and will be running home very strongly, I’m happy to go with Prized Icon for this race and then Harlow Gold for the Oaks. No knock on Whispering Brook’s effort in the Thousand Guineas, a similar story with So Si Bon who looks Derby bound.
Numbers 1-11-10-6
