Mariners, Diamondbacks Double Dip?
The Seattle Mariners need starting pitching help if they want to have even a slight chance of breaking their 15 year playoff drought. The Arizona Diamondback have announced they are willing to trade some of their pitching depth, namely Patrick Corbin and/or Shelby Miller. While the Mariners should have interest in both, they should aim higher and really go "all in". The Diamondbacks have insisted that he isn't available, and he very well might not be. However; if somebody made an aggressive offer for him, I think the Diamondbacks would have to reconsider. Lets go Around the Bases with Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray.
The Player- Robbie Ray is a 25 year old LH Pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ray has 2 full seasons under his belt, and in 2016 Ray went 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 174.1 innings. Although those seem like mediocre numbers, Robbie Ray is anything but a mediocre pitchers. Ray averaged 11.25 K/9 and posted a xFIP( metric that assumes neutral defense and park) of 3.45. Ray also boast a 45.7% groundball rate, 30th best in all of baseball among qualified pitchers.
Ray's unusual blend of strikeouts and groundballs puts him in great company. In fact, of the 29 qualified pitchers with a higher GB% than Ray, nobody has a higher K/9. In fact, of the top 30, only 4 have a higher GB% and a K/9 greater than 10. Those pitchers are Chris Archer, Michael Pineda, Noah Syndergaard, and... Robbie Ray.
Ray is essiantly a 2 pitch pitcher right now, relying heavily on his 92-94 MPH fastball that can touch 97. His best secondary pitch is a decent slider, which sits between 83 and 85, with a good sinking movement. Ray also has a curveball and changeup, though he rarely uses either (they account for about 10% of his pitches thrown combined).
Ray can struggle with his command at times, leading to a 3.67 BB/9. Coupling his iffy command with a lack of a dominate secondary pitch, and Ray is anything but a finished product. But at 25 years old, there is still time for him to develop those skills.
The Fit- Ray likely would slot either 3rd or 4th in the Mariners rotation, depending on Manager Scott Servais preference to break up same handed pitchers. Ray's high groundball rate should benefit him with a solid infield defense, and his HR rate should dip a little moving from Chase Field to Safeco.
Finacially, Ray isn't a concern. He will not even be arbitrtaion eligible until after the 2017 season, giving his team 4 years of club control. He will make the league minimum in 2017.
The Cost- Because he is a young, high upside, controllable pitcher, Robbie Ray would be pricey. In fact, it is entirely possible that the Mariners simply do not have the prospects to get a piece like Ray. However; I think General Manager Jerry Dipoto can at least put together an offer to make the Diamondbacks reconsider their position. The Mariners and Diamondbacks already made the Segura Walker trade earlier, so both teams are familiar with one another.
Any trade for Robbie Ray has to start with one of Kyle Lewis or Tyler O'Neil. The Diamondbacks also would like some bullpen help. Could the Mariners entice Mike Hazen by offering Tyler O'Neil, Christopher Torres, and Edwin Diaz? It seems like a high price, and it is for the Mariners. But consider what you are getting in Ray: a young, controlable starting pitcher with a nice floor and significant upside left. Ray isn't a rental, and it is much easier for the Mariners to replace Diaz than it would be to find a starting pitcher like Ray.
The Verdict- I am not getting my hopes up. Even if the Mariners and Diamondbacks were discussing a trade for starting pitching, it would more than likely be centered around either Shelby Miller or, even more likely, Patrick Corbin. Both Corbin and Miller are intirguing cases, but I would like to see the Mariners pay the extra to get an pitcher as excitable as Robbie Ray.
