What if the Red Sox didn't trade Jeff Bagwell?

Yesterday, on January 18, 2017, Jeff Bagwell, along with Tim Raines and Ivan Rodriguez, were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. And all of them deservedly so. Bagwell, however, is a much more interesting backstory. Many know that Bagwell was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 4th round of the 1989 MLB Draft out of the University of Hartford. Many also know that Bagwell was traded to the Astros for pitcher Larry Andersen in one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history in order for Boston to make a late playoff push. But I'm here to ask: What if Bagwell was never traded? What if, on August 30, 1990, the Red Sox did not trade the native son of New England? Well, to start, given Andersen's WAR for the Red Sox in 1990 (1.2) we can assume that the Red Sox would finish with approximately 87 wins, clinching the AL East by one game over the Blue Jays. The Astros, with the extra 1.2 wins from Andersen, would finish 76-86, in the middle of the NL West. Come 1991, the Red Sox would finally call up Bagwell, directly from Double A New Britain. At this point, however, Bagwell had exclusively played third base in the minors, with the exception of a couple games. And at third base, the Red Sox had Wade Boggs, fresh off his sixth straight All Star season. It's also unlikely he would move cross-diamond to first, as the Sox had then-25 year old Carlos Quintana at first. A move back to his college position of shortstop would also be unlikely, as the Red Sox had then-27 year old Luis Rivera. (And though they didn't know it, he would post a career high 1.8 WAR that season.) But there would still be a spot for Bagwell in the lineup: at DH. With Dwight Evans departing for Baltimore, the Red Sox signed Jack Clark to DH for them. Clark was 35 at the time and was a far cry from his glory days in San Francisco. He would still be signed, but take a lesser role. Bagwell posted a 4.8 WAR that season, with Clark posting a 2.3 WAR, giving the Red Sox three extra wins en route to a 87-75 record, 2nd in the East. The Astros would lose nearly 5 wins without Bagwell, and would finish 60-102 for the worst record in the NL. Bagwell would actually NOT win Rookie of the Year, finishing behind Chuck Knoblauch in the voting. The NL Award would go to Orlando Merced from the Pirates. In 1992, Bagwell would still be manning the DH position for the BoSox, with Mo Vaughn now taking over first for Quintana. Bagwell's 4.7 WAR would help the Red Sox to a 78-84 record, while the Astros would finish a near-identical 76-86. Come 1993, Bagwell would begin to blossom as a DH. With Bagwell hitting, the Red Sox have no need to sign Andre Dawson. Without Dawson, the Red Sox would gain 0.2 wins, and combined with Bagwell's 5.4 WAR, gives the Red Sox just enough to gain 6 wins on the season, finishing 86-76, third in the AL. Houston would conversely lose 5 wins, finishing 80-82. In 1994, Bagwell would post a 8.2 WAR, and without Dawson, would gain 9 wins towards a 63-52 finish. Houston would lose Bags' 8 wins, going 58-57. Bagwell would actually capture the AL MVP over Frank Thomas this season, with Matt Williams winning it for the NL. 1995 is the year the Red Sox finally break through into the postseason, winning 91 games. The Indians would still eliminate them in the ALDS despite a strong performance from Bagwell due to an O-fer performance from the MVP Mo Vaughn. In 1996, postseason history is rewritten. Bagwell powers the Red Sox to 8 more wins than real life, winning the AL East on the last day of the season. The Yankees would slide to the wild card spot, facing (and beating) the Indians in the ALDS, and meeting the Red Sox for a chance to play the Braves. Like OTHER Red Sox-Yankees postseason series, this went 7 games. In the end, the Red Sox prevailed. However, they simply could not beat the high powered Braves, losing in 5. The Red Sox would go back to the cellar in 1997, and now we are reminded Houston exists. The Astros won the Central in 1997, but would lose 8 more games without Bags, meaning the Pirates would capture the crown at

*sigh*

79-83.

(Wow, I can't believe I actually typed that)

Enter 1998. The Red Sox and Astros would both win 96 games, with Houston capturing the NL Central. However, both of them would be eliminated in the Division Series. In 1999, Mo Vaughn would leave the Red Sox for Anaheim, and an experimenting Jimy Williams puts career-DH Jeff Bagwell at first, with Scott Hatteburg and Brian Daubach splitting DH duties. Bagwell gives the Red Sox 7 more wins (and the Astros 7 less) as Boston wins the AL East. Without Bags, Houston goes from NL Central champions to out of the playoffs entirely. Once again, Boston and New York square off for a chance to play the Braves. And once again, the Red Sox win. And once again, the Braves beat the Red Sox (this time in 6 games.) Bagwell had an off year once he entered the new millennium, posting only a 5.4 WAR. This, however, is still enough to power the Red Sox to the AL East title, knocking our 2000 World Series champions Yankees out of the playoffs. There's nothing to stop the Sox at this point. Not the A's, not the Mariners, not the Mets. Nothing stops the Red Sox as the ride the shoulders of World Series MVP Jeff Bagwell to their first World Series since 1918. Rather uneventfully, the Sox would miss October in 2001. But with no Bags in Houston, they also fall out of the playoffs, and the Giants jump in. Nothing in the postseason changes, except that the Giants lose to the Diamondbacks in the NLCS instead of the Braves. Come 2002, and Bags' decline is now beginning. Still a productive player, but not what he was. Both the Red Sox and Astros miss the playoffs. In 2003, in an attempt to extend Bagwell's career, he is shifted back to DH, his previous Major League position. To fill the void left at first, they not only brought in Kevin Millar a couple years later than in real life, they also signed a relatively unknown player in David Ortiz. The Red Sox once again lose in a heartbreaker, and once again, the Yankees lose in the World Series to the Marlins. Bagwell has a semi-swan song in 2004, helping the Red Sox to an AL East title, an AL Pennant, and another World Series. With no Bagwell in Houston, they once again drop out of the postseason. Finally in 2005, Ortiz takes over the DH spot from Bagwell, although he still occasionally plays. Bagwell ends his last season a shell of his former self, and the Red Sox quietly lose in a sweep in the ALDS. The Astros, however, go on a Cinderella run to the World Series, losing to the White Sox in six games. Bagwell quietly retires after the season, and is elected to the Hall of Fame in 2017.