Heading Home to Chicago
To everyone who said the Cubs were in trouble after game one, shame on you. I’m sure the Arrieta versus Bauer matchup was giving you nightmares, wondering how the Cubs were ever going to pull out game two. Well, they did, and the series is now tied heading back to Chicago. On one hand, the team that wins game one has won the World Series 12 of the last 13 years, and 24 of the last 28. On the other hand, the Cubs did exactly what the road team is asked to do: split and head home to grab the series. So who has the edge?
The short answer is the Cubs do, and it’s for the same reason they always have. They’re the better team. For one thing, this is one of the best offenses in baseball. When you look up and down this lineup, every guy can do damage. An opposing pitcher can’t take any batters off, because one hitter is as dangerous as the next. The talent of Rizzo and Bryant is no secret to anybody at this point, especially with Bryant days away from the announcement of what will almost certainly be his first MVP award. The Cubs are hoping that those two guys can get hot, as neither has done much in the first two games of this World Series. That spark has come from other guys in the lineup.
Ben Zobrist already has five hits in this series, and it looks like his prominent role in last year’s World Series with the Royals is carrying over. Javier Baez has been hot, hitting .319 in the postseason, and Addison Russell has turned it on as of late after a major slump through the first half of the playoffs. Even Willson Contreras, who hasn’t been a regular starter, seems to get a hit every at bat, as he’s hitting .360 and has come up with big RBI’s late in games for the Cubs.
But the story of the series so far is a guy who had four at bats and no hits in the regular season. Kyle Schwarber was a surprise name on the World Series roster, and even more of a surprise name in the lineup for game one, coming off a torn ACL and LCL in just the third game of the regular season. The hope for manager Joe Maddon was that he could give them a few good at bats and possibly be able to make something happen out of the DH spot. In just two games, Schwarber looks to be in midseason form. The second year slugger out of Indiana had two big RBI singles Wednesday night, after raking a double off the top of the right field wall on Tuesday. He was denied medical clearance to play the outfield in Chicago, but Maddon will no doubt pinch hit him in crucial situations going forward, giving him a chance to further make an impact in this series.
Kyle Schwarber rips an RBI single in the 5th inning to give the Cubs a four run lead.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
The Cubs offense is well documented, as is their defense. Opponents have a .255 BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) against the Cubs this season, which essentially means that the Cubs convert 74.5% of balls in play into outs, the highest total in 35 years. Chicago also has five Gold Glove finalists, a true testament to this team’s defensive proficiency.
What really gives this Cubs team the edge is their starting pitching. The Cubs shut down opposing hitters this season with a trio of ace pitchers in Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA), Jake Arrieta, (18-8, 3.10), and Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13). Lester’s dominance has continued into the postseason, as he was named the NLCS co-MVP, but he ran into trouble in game one with uncharacteristic walks and hit batsmen at inopportune times, allowing the Indians to take a lead that they would never relinquish. The pressure was on last year’s Cy Young winner in Arrieta to take game two and he did just that, giving up only two hits and allowing only one run on a wild pitch. That’s been the beauty of this Cubs staff this postseason. They don’t have to rely on one guy to get the job done. Jon Lester doesn’t have to throw a shutout, because they have Arrieta throwing the next day against a number two starter, and Hendricks throwing against a number three. Having multiple aces puts less pressure on each guy to have a flawless outing, something we saw with the Mets last year.
Having said that, game three is huge for the Cubs to win, not just because teams have a 71% chance of winning the series when they go up 2-1, but also because of the matchup it creates in game four. The Cubs are heavy favorites in game three, since Josh Tomlin’s ERA this season was more than twice that of Hendricks’s. But if the Indians were to pull off the upset in game three, it would create a Lackey vs. Kluber matchup in game four, one that would heavily favor Cleveland and give them a very good shot to go up 3-1.
John Lackey is slated to start game four, and while Lackey has had a very solid 2016 season, he’s nowhere near the level of Corey Kluber, who has been unhittable this postseason. Kluber is this year’s Madison Bumgarner, and Indians’ manager Terry Francona plans to start him in games one, four, and seven, the latter two on three days’ rest. And who can blame him? Kluber has a 0.74 postseason ERA, and just shut out the Cubs in game one, striking out nine in the process.
Kluber quietly had a season that looked eerily similar to his 2014 Cy Young campaign, and has turned it on even more thus far in the playoffs. That shift can be attributed to one pitch: his two-seam fastball. Since the start of 2014 up until the end of this regular season, Kluber has struggled with his two-seamer, as opponents have hit it well, to the tune of a .294 batting average and 28 homers. All his other pitches have been spectacular, but his two-seamer is a pitch that he’s relied heavily on, and he throws it often and on all counts. This postseason however, that .294 number has dipped to .125, and in the World Series, it’s dipped to .091. He struck out six Cubs with his two-seamer in game one, and it’s a pitch that when located properly is nearly impossible to pick up on.
On Tuesday night, Corey Kluber became the first player in MLB history to strike out eight batters in the first three innings of a postseason game.
Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports
Kluber’s other strikeout pitch is his slider, and he disguises his pitches so well out of his hand that a hitter can’t pick up the difference until it’s already a third of the way to the plate. By that time the hitter has already decided whether or not he’s swinging, and the ball will either stay straight if it’s a four-seam fastball, curve outside to a right-handed hitter if it’s a slider, or tail back into the zone if it’s the two-seamer. Most of those strikeouts are looking, because the two-seamer moves an inch and a half away from the four-seamer, a difference that might not seem like much, but is the difference between a ball and a strike in the majors.
The problem with the Indians is they have no choice but to rely heavily on Kluber to get the job done every time he takes the mound. This might not be the case if Carlos Corrasco and Danny Salazar were fully healthy, but the formula has been Kluber one game, then Bauer or Tomlin and a heavy dose of the bullpen in the form of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in the others.
The good news is that Salazar made an appearance in game two, and looked good in his lone inning of relief. He walked two batters, but walks aren’t unusual for him, so it wasn’t really a sign of weakness. The hope is that Salazar will be able to start game five or six, and give the Indians five good innings so they can hand it over to their bullpen. Salazar was one of the top pitchers in baseball at the all-star break, before sustaining an elbow injury late in the season that put his postseason status in question. Like Schwarber, he was a surprise name on the World Series roster, and if he can come in and pitch like he did earlier in the season, that would be a massive boost for the Indians.
Right now, the Indians are taking the Royals’ approach to the big stage: solid starting pitching, good innings out of the bullpen, small ball, speed, and timely hitting. If they can execute in these areas, they’ll be able to knock off the powerhouse that is the Chicago Cubs, but if they can’t, the Cubs have too much firepower going forward. Either way, we’ll see the end of one of the two longest active World Series droughts, and for one fanbase, the greatest gift they can ask for before the holiday season.
