Why the Committee Got it Right
As college football on Saturday drew to a close, the Selection Committee probably sat at their respective homes dreading the meetings that would ensue. Why couldn’t Clemson win? Why couldn’t Michigan win, or Washington even? They were probably praying that everything went according to plan, and they could just bang out the same playoff rankings as last week with no questions asked. Of course, things didn’t turn out that way. Alabama took care of business as usual, but with the two, three, and four seeds all losing, there were a lot of questions. The committee answered them perfectly when they released their rankings Tuesday night. Here’s why they got it right.
The Top Four
1. Alabama
This one was a no brainer. Alabama is undoubtedly the best team in the country, and they proved it again with a dominating performance, destroying Mississippi State 51-3. Jalen Hurts looks like the best quarterback Alabama has had in years, and this is the best defense in the nation, as they showed when they shut down Leonard Fournette. For Alabama to miss out on the playoff, it would take two losses in their next three games, one of which is against Chattanooga. Alabama will run the table to get to the playoff. Book it.
2. Ohio State
Now it gets interesting. Ohio State was the favorite to grab the two seed after steamrolling Maryland this past week, and the committee rewarded them. It’s pretty clear that the SEC isn’t the best conference in football anymore. That title goes to the Big Ten, with four teams in the top ten this week. The Buckeyes have lost one game to a top ten team in Penn State by a field goal on the road. They clearly didn’t play their best football against James Franklin’s group, but they have the past two weeks, beating Nebraska and Maryland by a combined score of 124-6. Ohio State was ranked second before they lost, knocking them down to five, but when the three teams ahead of them finally lost too, they reclaimed their rightful spot. Don’t look past an early victory over a top team in Oklahoma either.
3. Michigan
A lot of people might be surprised to see the Wolverines keep their number three spot despite losing to unranked Iowa. Don’t be. Michigan has put together an extremely impressive résumé, with three victories over current top ten teams in Wisconsin, Penn State, and Colorado. They defeated Penn State by a whopping 39 points, and Colorado by 17. Save for the Wisconsin game, every win has been by more than one score, with the majority of their games being blowouts. Jim Harbaugh’s team may have laid an egg against Iowa, but at the end of the day it was a one-point loss to an admittedly good football team. People may point to Wilton Speight’s injury as reason to drop the Wolverines, but the committee can’t fault teams for what may happen in the future. Having said that, Michigan has a tough matchup against Ohio State in two weeks, with the loser of that game most likely falling out of the top four for good. The winner of that game should be looking ahead to the playoff, regardless of what happens with Penn State and Wisconsin.
With Wilton Speight (3) out for the season, the Wolverines will have to rely on backup quarterback John O'Korn to come through in a desperate time.
Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
4. Clemson
The biggest debate heading into this Tuesday was whether or not Louisville could jump Clemson despite losing to the Tigers earlier in the year. The answer to that question from the committee was no, they can’t, and rightfully so. Both teams are 9-1. In the NFL, when there’s a tie in the standings, head to head always solves it. It’s the best way of determining which team is better. So why are we beating around the bush here. Clemson beat Louisville, so they should be ahead of them. College Football Playoff committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said it best. “The committee still places a high value on the head-to-head that Clemson has over Louisville at this time.” For most people, it’s a little more complicated than that, so let’s delve deeper. Louisville is in the conversation because of a future Heisman trophy winner in Lamar Jackson and a blowout win at home against Florida State. In fact, those are the only two things the Cardinals have to hang their hats on. When you look at their résumé, it isn’t as strong as Clemson’s. Louisville is 1-1 against top 25 opponents. Clemson is 3-0. The best out of conference team that Louisville has beaten is Marshall. For Clemson it’s Auburn. There is also precedent here. In 2014, when TCU and Baylor were vying for the last spot in the playoff, both teams had one loss, but Baylor had beaten TCU, and while neither made the top four, the committee rewarded Baylor by putting them ahead of TCU because of the head-to-head victory with all else being equal. In this case, Clemson has a bad loss to Pittsburgh at home, but both teams have one loss, and the head-to-head win is strong enough to push them over the edge.
Outside Looking In
5. Louisville
Most of why the Cardinals sit at number five right now can be explained above. For Louisville fans who are angry at the results, breathe. You control your own destiny. If Louisville wins out, they will be in the playoff. If they don’t, then they don’t deserve to be. It doesn’t matter that they’re sitting outside it right now. If Louisville wins their next two games, they will automatically move up a spot after the outcome of the Michigan at Ohio State game bumps one of those teams from the playoff. Even if everyone else around them wins out, Louisville would be one of five one-loss teams. They currently sit ahead of Washington, and even if Washington wins the Pac-12, Louisville will still likely finish ahead of them. While Houston isn’t as strong as people thought after beating Oklahoma in week one, they’re still a quality opponent, and a win over the Cougars will boost Louisville’s résumé. Bobby Petrino has his guys in a good place, and if the heroics of Lamar Jackson continue, Louisville won’t be sitting outside the top five for long. For now, it’s where they belong.
Lamar Jackson may be running away with the Heisman, but he's going to have to stay on top of his game to vault Louisville into the top four.
Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
6. Washington
If former Washington athletic director Scott Woodward knew that his football team was going to be this good, he probably would have scheduled non-conference games against stronger opponents. Woodward has the same job in College Station now, but his scheduling is having a big impact on the placement of Washington in the playoff rankings as they currently stand. Washington is the committee’s worst nightmare: a team with a good enough record in a power five conference that has a poor strength of schedule. A down year for the Pac-12 and the weakest schedules of any team in the conference has them on the outside looking in. Of all the one loss teams, Washington has shown the committee far less than the other teams, as the committee ranked one-loss Texas A&M over them two weeks ago when Washington was still undefeated. To get in, Washington will need to win the Pac-12 and hope that either Clemson or Louisville loses one of their upcoming games.
Best of the Rest
7. Wisconsin
The top six seemed pretty obvious. Once you get to the two-loss teams then it starts to get tricky again. The bottom line here is that the Badgers have the two most excusable losses of any team in the country. Ohio State and Michigan are both top three teams. Wisconsin does still have a path to the playoff, but they’d need some help. A conference championship is a start, and it looks feasible, as Wisconsin is very likely to get their rematch against either of the teams that defeated them.
8. Penn State
More Big Ten? Why not. Penn State has a signature win over Ohio State, and dominant wins against good conference opponents in Iowa and Indiana. Penn State has a clear path to win the Big Ten if Michigan loses, and if they win it, they could make a splash in the top four. Until then, they still have something to prove against Michigan State in two weeks.
9. Oklahoma
Don’t look now, but Oklahoma has won seven straight games and remains undefeated in the Big 12. The Big 12 is a significantly weaker conference than it has been in past years, but the Sooners have two tough games coming up against West Virginia and Oklahoma State. If they win those, and hope for a mess in the Big Ten, they might be able to sneak in. This might be the best offense in college football, but they’ve played suspect defense all season leading to two losses and close games against worse opponents.
14. West Virginia
So we’re skipping around here a bit, but this is the first time the committee got it wrong. West Virginia isn’t much different from Washington. They’re a one-loss team in a power five conference that’s worse than usual with a weak strength of schedule. Yet somehow the Mountaineers are ranked eight spots lower than Washington with virtually no shot of being in the playoff. If you had told Dana Holgorsen that his team would have one loss at this point in the season and not even crack the top ten, he’d probably be even angrier than he was this weekend.
With week 13 in college football will come more changes and maybe even another shift at the top, but for right now, the committee has spoken, and their message is clear. You have to beat the best to be the best. We still have a while to go. It’s crunch time.
