Super Bowl Preview: Pair of Elite Offenses Ready to Create Fireworks in Houston
Remember when the NFL universe came to the conclusion that defense wins championships, and that the league was shifting away from offensive powerhouses? Don’t think back too far. It was less than a year ago, when the Broncos and the Panthers, two of the premier defensive juggernauts in the league, faced off in the Super Bowl. Denver was a team with a ferocious pass rush, two shutdown corners, and the league’s third-ranked rush defense. Carolina sported a ball-hawking defense that led the league in interceptions, forced fumbles, takeaways, and turnover margin. It looked like the start of a defensive revolution in the NFL.
Fast forward a year, and that thought is long gone. The Broncos and Vikings couldn’t reach the playoffs, the Chiefs and Giants flopped in their opening round games, and the Texans and Seahawks were steamrolled in the divisional round. What was on the menu this postseason was offense, and a lot of it. The conference championships were both offensive clinics by two teams that had excelled in that facet of the game all season, and it looks like the Super Bowl is going to be more of the same.
This Super Bowl matchup is an intriguing one, as it pins a surprise team with little past success and few expectations going into the year against one of the greatest dynasties in the history of sports.
The Atlanta Falcons flew under the radar for the bulk of the season, but they have demanded national attention with dominant playoff victories, and now look well equipped to bring home the Lombardi trophy for the first time in the franchise’s history. The Falcons were mediocre the past few seasons, as inconsistency always held back a team with the unquestionable talent to play in January. That all seems like ancient history now, as they led the league in scoring behind a high-flying offensive attack. At the center of it all was Matt Ryan. A perennial slightly-above-average quarterback, Ryan broke out with an MVP-caliber season, tossing 38 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. He also finished second in the league in passing yards with nearly 5,000.
Ryan’s efficiency coupled with the best receiver in football in Julio Jones makes for a dangerous duo that will likely take a lot more than just Malcolm Butler to stop. Bill Belichick emphasizes stopping the opposing team’s biggest threat, and neutralizing Jones is a nearly impossible task, but even doing so would create other problems for the Patriots defense. Ryan and the Falcons’ offense showed absolutely no dip in production when Jones was forced to miss time with a toe injury. Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu were able to come up big, and Ryan found 13 different players in the end zone this season. Atlanta also possesses a unique running back duo that is a huge part of the passing game, boasting an all-pro runner in Devonta Freeman and perhaps the league’s best backup in Tevin Coleman.
There wasn't much conversation early on about the greatness of this Atlanta offense, but now the discussion ought to be where they rank among the top offensive units of all-time.
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To say the Falcons have an oustanding offense would be an understatement. This offense is historically great. In a season where teams produced extremely high scoring outputs, Atlanta blew everyone out of the water, scoring 33.8 points per game, the seventh highest total of all-time. That’s 11.1 points more than the league average, and 4.5 points higher than the second-ranked New Orleans Saints. The Falcons are 2.7 standard deviations above the mean in this department, which ranks among the top 1% of offenses in league history. If it feels like they score whenever they touch the ball, it’s because they do. Well, more than half the time at least. Atlanta scores on 52.6% of offensive possessions. In comparison, the median is 35.9% – a measurement more accurate than the mean in this instance because of teams like the Browns and Rams that rarely score and severely impact the average – and the second highest total is the Saints at 45.9%.
There seems to be no formula for stopping this offense either, as the Falcons have torched everyone they’ve lined up against. Atlanta entered the season with the second toughest strength of schedule. They faced only two of the league’s bottom ten pass defenses, while squaring off against six of the league’s top ten pass defenses, including wins against two of the three past Super Bowl winners in the Seahawks and Broncos. They’ll have a chance to make it all three this Sunday in Houston when they take on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are the equivalent of if Pitbull was a professional football team. They peaked in 2001 and have been at the top of the league year after year, but nobody actually likes them and they just won’t go away. This year is no different. They may have traded a pro-bowler in Jamie Collins, and lost their best offensive weapon in Rob Gronkowski for the season, but Bill Belichick and his football team seem unfazed. New England yet again finished the season with the best record in football, and have won 13 of their last 14 games with Tom Brady on the field.
The narrative for the Patriots is static. As long as they have the best coach/quarterback duo in the history of the sport, they will be one of the top teams in football. Tom Brady is on the verge of cementing his legacy as the greatest quarterback of all-time, and at this point there isn’t much that hasn’t been said about his greatness. But he’s not doing it alone. Lost in the Tom Brady hype is the fact that the Patriots possess a very talented offense, even without the big names that Atlanta possesses.
It all starts with Brady, but where New England really excels is in the run game, and that’s all thanks to LeGarrette Blount. Blount finished eighth in the league in rushing, eclipsing 1,000 yards for the first time since his rookie season in Tampa. He was also as reliable as they come in short-yardage situations, picking up 67 first downs and running for a league-high 18 touchdowns. Even with Dion Lewis and James White often in on third-down situations, Blount still functions as the workhorse, finishing second in the league in rushes and taking the pressure off Brady.
In the passing game, Julian Edelman has been a rock for this team ever since he stepped foot in the starting lineup. Edelman is the NFL’s premier slot receiver, accumulating 98 receptions on the season on 158 targets, finishing top five in both categories. Chris Hogan functions as New England’s number two, and he was able to thrive in a new home, averaging just under 18 yards per reception. Of course, Hogan’s recent success has been well-documented, as after putting together an impressive showing to the tune of 95 receiving yards against the Texans, he torched the Steelers in the AFC championship. Hogan caught nine balls for 180 yards and two touchdowns, an identical stat line to the one that Julio Jones put up just hours earlier. Edelman and Hogan are no Julio Jones, but they possess a unique skill set that makes them extremely difficult to cover. Most top cornerbacks are comfortable covering out wide, New England’s receiving duo is able to thrive in the slot, where they’re often guarded by nickel corners, safeties, or outside linebackers, creating massive mismatches.
Chris Hogan took a long and hard road to the NFL, but he looks poised to show out on the biggest stage of them all.
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On one particular play in the first quarter of the AFC championship, the patriots lined up in an I-formation. Bennett lined up adjacent to Marcus Cannon on the right side of the formation, and James Devlin lined up in the backfield. Hogan was positioned in the slot, and Edelman was sent in motion. It was a play that looked like a sure run, or at the least, a quick play action pass. Instead, the Patriots shifted to a five-wide formation, with Hogan and Edelman in the slot. Pittsburgh didn’t have the appropriate personnel in the game, and upon examining the formation, Hogan drew a matchup with James Harrison. Hogan was able to run right by the bigger and slower Harrison, and Brady hit him for an easy 27-yard gain. The Patriots might not have the same dazzling offense the Falcons do, but they have quick receivers that are able to create mismatches and stifle opposing defenses, something the Falcons will need to game plan heavily against for Sunday’s matchup.
The number that jumps out perhaps bigger than any other coming into this matchup is 11. Both teams turned the ball over just 11 times all season, tied for the lowest number in the league. They’re able to come up with one big play after another without risking giveaways. If that can continue to hold true Sunday, we’re in for a shootout. So to Gary Kubiak, Ron Rivera, and all the defensive enthusiasts out there, sorry, but this is an offensive league, and with offenses like these, that’s not going to change any time soon.
