2016-2017 Total Wins Projection: Southwest Division
Did you saw the first game of your favorite team? Did they do well? Don't worry or don't get too happy, the season is just beginning. Today, I challenged myself again as I give my total wins prediction for each team.
I will give you two win ranges:
Extensive Range: It will be a 10 games range. Example, 29-38 wins.
Definite Range: It will be a 5 games range that is inside the Extensive Range. Example, 31-35 wins.
But, those ranges will be revealed before the end of December.
Today, I will give you my initial ranges; Extensive Range - 14 games range. Definite Range - 7 games range. The main ranges will be inside the initial ranges.
I am putting my blog on the line here. I need to score 15 points in my projection. The extensive range is worth 1/2 point while the definite range will be a full point.
Today, we will tackle the Southwest division.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Extensive Range: 36 - 49
Definite Range: 40 - 46
We can say that the Mavericks is second behind the Spurs in terms of under-estimation. Even with a veteran and washed up laden roster last season, they still went over 50% winning percentage. And the replacing Zaza Pachulia and Chandler Parsons with two better team players in Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes will be a big plus.
And let me remind you that they are coached by one of the elite coaches in the league, Rick Carlisle. Coach Rick averaged 47.5 wins in his time in Dallas. One thing that could drag them this season is the regression of Dirk Nowitzki. If he regressed beyond expectation, it will be hard to fill the void.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Extensive Range: 39 - 52
Definite Range: 40 - 46
They faced a lot of controversies and problems last season but the Rockets still finished the season in the playoffs. Now that they have a better locker room and a coach that fits the cravings of their star, James Harden, this season is looking bright for the Rockets, right?
That could be just in paper because their bench doesn't look good in paper and in the court. With a high-octane offense, the bench is so much more important. To balance that out, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza will need to shoot lights out.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Extensive Range: 40 - 53
Definite Range: 44 - 50
The Grizzlies made a semi face-lift in the offseason with the addition of Chandler Parsons and coach David Fizdale. Their biggest problem this season will be the same as last year, injuries. So, it was encouraging that they managed to win over the Timberwolves.
With a more versatile line-up and a coach who is known for player development, Memphis could be a good team to ride on this season. Zach Randolph looks comfortable and more aggressive playing off-the-bench.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Extensive Range: 26 - 39
Definite Range: 28 - 34
I really feel bad for Anthony Davis after his 50 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks went for nothing. He needed to post those numbers because his main support of Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans were not in ball game due to family matters and injury, respectively.
Even with one of the top 5 player in the league and with a good coach, it will be hard to count on Pelicans to reach 40 wins. The good news of falling to that 26 wins base is a high pick in a very loaded draft. One thing to look out for this season is Buddy Hield. If he surpass the projections, that 39 wins is achievable.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Extensive Range: 55 - 68
Definite Range: 61 - 67
The Spurs has a different vibe this season. They look like a team that wants to prove something. And that silent kid named Kawhi Leonard, he looks pretty good. Nope, that is an underestatement. He is a bad ass in both ends of the court. Beyond the Leonard-Aldridge combo, Spurs will be parading the best bench in the league and they did their job in their first two games.
One of the biggest risk that they have is the health and the possible decline of Tony Parker. If that happens, it will be hard to expect Patty Mills running the offense consistently for 30 minutes. Other than that, Kawhi's big baggage in the defensive end can juice out negative things in the latter part of the season.
