Predicting the MVP for the 2020 NFL Season
The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes QB
The obvious favorite for the 2020 NFL MVP Award is Patrick Mahomes. Last season Mahomes threw for 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 14 games. While it was a clear regression from his 2018 NFL season, in which he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, I expect Mahomes to reach that 2018 level again. The Chiefs retained most of their weapons this offseason. In fact, they added more help when they drafted running back Clyde Edwards-Helarie. If Mahomes stays healthy he's the front runner for MVP.
Contenders: Lamar Jackson QB, Russell Wilson QB
My tier two for 2020 MVP rankings is clear: Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson will look to have a repeat of his 2019 MVP season. Jackson not only threw for 3,127 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, he also ran for over 1,000 yards. The Ravens will have another strong year with Jackson at the helm, making him a top candidate for MVP.
Wilson may be the most underappreciated quarterback in the NFL. Playing behind below-average offensive lines the past few seasons hasn't stopped Wilson from playing at an MVP level. Wilson has less of a supporting cast than Mahomes and Jackson. Wilson has been carrying the Seahawks to the playoffs each and every year despite their issues. The 2020 season will be no different.
Sleepers: Tom Brady QB, Kyler Murray QB, Christian McCaffery RB
Fans may not like it, but Tom Brady is back in the MVP hunt. While not likely, Brady with more weapons than he's had in years is a threat to the MVP award. Playing with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gronk will surely improve his stats from a year ago. I don't think Brady is done yet, but his ability to carry a team with no weapons is not there anymore. Luckily, in Tampa Bay that won't be the case.
Kyler Murray has a chance at a Lamar Jackson type second-year breakout performance. Murray can throw and run the football. Don't forget the Cardinals also added DeAndre Hopkins to the mix at wide receiver. I see a big second-year jump statistically for Murray. The key to winning the MVP will be the Cardinals' team success. If Murray puts up big numbers on a losing team, it won't be enough to win the award.
The only non-quarterback on the list is Christian McCaffery. McCaffery had a huge 2019 NFL season. He ran for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns. On top of that, McCaffery had 116 catches for 1,005 yards. The problem I see with his MVP chances is team success. The Panthers will likely be bad this season. It would take something truly historic for McCaffery to win the award.
