A Look Ahead At the NL Central, 2017
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
With football season over (yes, I will do more bits on that over the time), it is time to think to baseball and the upcoming season and see where it may take us, what it may do, may not do, and so on. So for the next six weeks I will look at each division and give them a "capsule" so to speak. Who they added, who they lost, what the outlook is, and a prediction. So sit back, and enjoy the first of the previews, the National League Central, home of the World Champion Chicago Cubs (still odd to say that, but I like saying it nonetheless).
1. CHICAGO CUBS
Key Additions: OF Jon Jay (FA/San Diego), P-Brian Duensing (FA/Baltimore), P-Koji Uehara (FA/Boston), P Wade Davis (Trade/Kansas City)
Key Losses: OF Jorge Soler (Trade/Kansas City), P Aroldis Chapman (FA/New York Yankees), OF Dexter Fowler (FA/St. Louis)
2017 Outlook: The defending champs open up as the heavy favorites to repeat after 108 years of heartache. The pieces are there for another run despite losing some key guys such as Soler and Chapman. But they added more depth to the bullpen and to the outfield and they get Kyle Schwarber back. The only way the Cubs get derailed in 2017 is if they get hit by the injury bug, notably in the rotation, where they are a bit thin after those starters of Arrieta, Lester, & Co. But really, this team is built for another long October run and given the rest of the Central, they should do it with ease.
Player to Watch: Jason Heyward. Last year in Chicago was a major flop. I didn't think he was worth the money, but I know he is a far better player than what he showed last year. If he gets it going, this team will be incredibly deadly from top to bottom.
Projected Record: 98-64
2. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Key Additions: OF Dexter Fowler (FA/Chicago Cubs), P John Gant (Trade/Atlanta), P Brett Cecil (FA-Toronto)
Key Losses: OF Matt Holliday (FA/New York Yankees), P Jaime Garcia (Trade/Atlanta), Brandon Moss (FA/Kansas City), P Seth Maness (FA), OF Jeremy Hazelbaker (Waivers/Arizona)
2017 Outlook: This is the first year in a while there hasn't been GREAT expectations in St. Louis. They added Fowler, which is a huge move and upgraded the pen with Brett Cecil, but really this isn't the same intimidating Cardinals squad we've come to know for the past 10-15 years. That said, it is also a team you cannot sleep on at all. The offense is solid and they have good pitching, so they will be there when September rolls around. If the bullpen is improved they can definitely fight for a Wild Card spot.
Player to Watch: Matt Adams. It's time for this guy to step up. He could be a 30 HR hitter if he can get it together, but it always seems like something sets him back. He could be due for a big year in St. Louis.
Projected Record: 88-74
3. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Key Additions: P Daniel Hudson (FA/Arizona)
Key Losses: P Neftali Feliz (FA/Milwaukee), OF Matt Joyce (FA/Oakland), Jeff Locke (FA/Miami), IF-Sean Rodriguez (FA/Atlanta-injured), Ryan Vogelsong (FA/Minnesota)
2017 Outlook: For as talented as some of the players the Pirates have, it is not a whole lot of wonder they are somewhat in neutral right now with the lack of depth this team has. Add on that Andrew McCutchen had a horrible 2016 season didn't help and his name was mentioned in trade talks in the winter. Also, McCutchen seems to be on the outs as he will move to right field in 2017. Strange given it was just a couple of years ago he was the face of the franchise. Pittsburgh will rely on Gerritt Cole to carry them into contention as well as Ivan Nova, but I don't know if it will be enough for the Buccos. Sad as they have two great youngsters in Polanco and Marte.
Player to Watch: Andrew McCutchen. Simply put McCutchen is going to be under the scope more ways than one. If he struggles again and somehow Pittsburgh is in the thick of a race, the Pirates may try to find a taker to improve the team. On the other hand if he produces and Pittsburgh is out of any race, he could net a king's ransom for the Pirates. That said, Pittsburgh would be a far better team when he is performing at a high level. He needs to step up one way or the other.
Projected Record: 82-80
4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS:
Key Additions: P-Neftali Feliz (FA/Pittsburgh), P-Tommy Milone (FA/Minnesota), OF-Travis Shaw (Trade/Boston), 2B-Eric Sogard (FA/Oakland), OF Eric Thames (FA/Korea)
Key Losses: P Blaine Boyer (FA/Atlanta), P Chris Capuano (FA), 1B Chris Carter (FA/New York Yankees), Martin Maldonado (Trade/Los Angeles Angels), P Tyler Thornburg (Trade, Boston)
2017 Outlook: Milwaukee could be that team that surprises a lot in 2017 and be in the thick of a Wild Card spot, or they can fall apart and fast. Obviously it isn't easy to replace Carter despite his .220 average. Those 40 HR will be tough. Travis Shaw is a good option, but it costed the Brew Crew Tyler Thornburg to get him. Of course, it is all dependent on what the Brewers do with Ryan Braun, a guy whose name has surfaced in every trade discussion since last year. If the Brewers are out, they will definitely see what they can net for Braun, but I don't know if they will just go away completely. But the young talent Milwaukee has in the farm seems to be near ready and if they can get some jolts down on the farm, watch out.
Player to Watch: Scooter Gennett. Similar to how I feel on Adams in St. Louis. Gennett needs to have a better year than last year for sure. His HR total went up to 14, and really it isn't his power that is what makes him, but he's got to start being more of an offensive threat and get on base more. The Brewers are not the Harvey's Wallbangers squad for sure but they need to generate as much offense as they can. He's got to step up more.
Projected Record: 76-86
5. CINCINNATI REDS
Key Additions: SS Arismendy Alcantara (Waivers/Oakland), P Louis Coleman (FA/Kansas City), P Drew Storen (FA/Seattle) P Bronson Arroyo (FA/Washington)
Key Losses: 2B Brandon Phillips (Trade/Atlanta), P John Lamb (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Ross Ohlendorf (FA/Japan), P Keyvious Sampson (FA/Arizona), P Alfredo Simon
2017 Outlook: The Reds can generate some offense in part because of playing in Great American Ballpark. So in a way, you can consider them Rockies Lite. Outside of Joey Votto, their offense is pretty much all or nothing. But the issue will reside back with the pitching. Currently, the Ace of the staff is Anthony DeSclafini. Granted he isn't bad, but if you're telling him to go against Kershaw, Bumgarner, Arrieta, and others you're pretty much wasting your best pitcher in that rotation early. On the flip-side is the bullpen which was godawful as godawful could be last year. I don't know if the duo of Coleman and Storen are going to be the answers the Reds need down there. The offense might be solid, but I don't think the pitching will pan out at all. And when you're bringing back 39-year old Bronson Arroyo after more arm troubles, you know you're in major trouble.
Player to Watch: Eugenio Suarez. The light-hitting infielder the Tigers let go became a 20 HR hitter in Cincinnati. Of course, we can probably credit Suarez's numbers to Great American Ballpark, but you wonder a player like Suarez who has a big season will come back to earth. If he does struggle, the Reds will hurt more.
Projected Record: 65-97
QUESTIONS FOR EACH TEAM
1. CUBS: Will Chicago have a championship hangover? Hard to say. My guess is with Maddon at the helm, no. He keeps it fresh and lively and with a mix of youth and experience, it bodes well for the Cubbies. But sometimes teams do have that lag early on before picking it up. I think they should be fine though.
2. CARDINALS: Is the system finally starting to show signs of wear & tear? Some think so. Me personally, I say until it actually does, I will say no. That said, the vibe of St. Louis isn't the same as it was with their young players. So maybe the system is showing signs of weakness.
3. PIRATES: Will Andrew McCutchen be somewhere else by the end of the season? Yes. I don't think Pittsburgh will be really in the thick of it in 2017 for a playoff spot. And they are not afraid, even when they really aren't sellers of moving key pieces to other teams. And it seems like Pittsburgh is ready to move on from him. My guess is he will either be in Houston, Seattle, or the Dodgers. Just a guess.
4. BREWERS: Is Ryan Braun days numbered in Milwaukee? Absolutely. My wonder is who gets moved first, Braun or McCutchen? If Milwaukee is out fast, then I can see Braun traded in June. But if they hang around longer, the Brewers will have some fun taking offers from the Giants, Dodgers, and if you want a sleeper team, the Indians.
5. REDS: Would Cincinnati ever consider trading Joey Votto? Not anytime in the next couple of years, but SHOULD they? Absolutely. The issue is his contract. It is huge and for a small-market squad like the Reds, they really cannot afford to keep him and have a bunch of other guys that are not quite ready to be in the Majors with him. You trade him, you could really get more out of that than you would of Braun and McCutchen.
That's it for this week. AL Central next week.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
