A Look Ahead At the NL East, 2017
The National League East has always seemed to be one or two teams really battling it out over the years while the other three languish. And each of the teams have been in a certain spot over the time. Last year in 2016, the Nationals, with probably the best talent, won the division for the third time in 5 years. However, once again, they fell in the NLDS and with the free agency of Bryce Harper looming, it seems to be a now-or-never situation for them. The Mets had to overcome struggles with injuries to pitchers and key players, still sneaked in the Wild Card before being bounced out by San Francisco. Miami was a sleeper pick to some, but had their world shaken when Jose Fernandez was killed in the boating accident. Philadelphia showed signs of progress from the rebuilding mode they have been on. And Atlanta, while they weren't ever a factor in the season, got better after the young players started to pan out and have given some hope to a good 2017 in their new ballpark. So, let's look and see what the teams look like heading into 2017.
1. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Key Additions: OF Adam Eaton (Trade/Chicago White Sox), C Matt Wieters (FA/Baltimore), P-Matt Albers (FA/Chicago White Sox), 1B Adam Lind (FA/Seattle), Derek Norris (Trade/San Diego), P Enny Romero (Trade/Tampa Bay), P Vance Worley (FA/Baltimore)
Key Losses: P Matt Belisle (FA/Minnesota), P Mat Latos (FA/Toronto), SS Danny Espinosa (Trade/Los Angeles Angels), P Mark Melancon (FA/San Francisco), P Yusimero Petit (FA/Los Angeles Angels), C Wilson Ramos (FA/Tampa Bay), OF Ben Revere (FA/Los Angeles Angels), P Marc Rzepczynski (FA/Seattle)
2017 OUTLOOK: The Nationals made headlines on what they DIDN'T do or will not do this off-season. For a while it seemed like Washington had all the pieces in place for TWO blockbuster moves, of trading for Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale. McCutchen didn't get moved and Boston made a better offer for Sale. So Washington went out and traded for lead-off hitter/CF Adam Eaton from the White Sox. And honestly, that is a good move for what they NEED. Of course, there is a sense of urgency as Bryce Harper's upcoming free agency is becoming talk and given how he is believing he is a $300 million dollar man, and how Washington will not go that high, there is a strong "win now" mentality in DC. They do have reigning Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg heading the rotation, but many believe the big issue as it has been has been the bullpen. Of course they weren't going to go all in on Melancon but that is a problem and given the rest of the rotation after Scherzer and Strasburg is wishy-washy, that bodes to be big problems. It can subside if the Nationals can keep healthy with the arms and the bats as it always seems like somebody is on the DL, whether it is Zimmerman, Werth, etc. That said, the talent of the Nationals should get them a 2nd straight division title and a 4th in 6 years.
Player to Watch: Bryce Harper: Harper fell back a good bit in 2016, as he wasn't keen to the idea of getting the Barry Bonds treatment. Cough it up to experience/maturity, but with one truly GREAT year and a couple of good ones, Bryce cannot afford to have a "good" season, but another MVP caliber season that many National fans and baseball gurus in the media and think he can get paid $300 million..........probably from the Yankees.
2017 PROJECTION: 92-70
2. NEW YORK METS
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: P Bartolo Colon (FA/Atlanta), OF Alejandro De Aza (FA/Oakland), OF Kelly Johnson (FA), 1B James Loney (FA/Texas), P Jonathon Niese (FA/New York Yankees), P Logan Verrett (Trade/Baltimore)
2017 OUTLOOK: The main goal was to sign Cespedes and they did that. But the Mets probably would have preferred adding a few more bats to a lineup that is somewhat inconsistent. The rotation is top notch, but people hold their breath with the injury issues as it hit a good number of them last year, which really propelled Washington to win the East. But with the rotation they have that is healthy, the Mets figure to be in the thick of the NL East and the Wild Card.
Player to Watch: Matt Harvey: Harvey's 2016 was a disaster year for sure before being shelved with more arm trouble. He hasn't looked sharp either in Spring Training. That said, New York is hoping he can pitch like he was in 2014 when he took the league by storm. If not, you can think of him being Jason Isringhausen 2.0 or Bill Pulsipher 2.0.
2017 Projection: 87-75
3. ATLANTA BRAVES
Key Arrivals: P Bartolo Colon (FA/New York Mets), P RA Dickey (FA/Toronto), 2B Brandon Phillips (Trade/Cincinnati), P Jaime Garcia (Trade/St. Louis), C Kurt Suzuki (FA/Minnesota), P Kris Medlen (FA/Kansas City), 2B/OF Micah Johnson (Trade/Los Angeles Dodgers), P John Danks (FA/Chicago White Sox)
Key Losses: C AJ Pierzynski (FA), OF Mallex Smith (Trade/Tampa Bay), P Chris Withrow (FA/Kansas City), P Williams Perez (FA/Chicago Cubs), P Rob Whalen (Trade/Seattle)
2017 OUTLOOK: New team, new ballpark. The Braves did a small reversal of the last few years where they went into fire sale mode and signed/traded for some veterans such as Bartolo Colon, RA Dickey, Jaime Garcia, and Brandon Phillips. Add in the fact of how the Braves finished 2016 and it has given people within the Atlanta organization of a strong contending team THIS YEAR. Of course, questions abound if Colon & Dickey can still pitch given their age, as well as how the new park plays out. Is it a pitcher's park or a hitter's park? But they do have some good young players up such as Dansby Swanson and a few others. If the Braves played like they did near the end of last season, they can create some havoc in the NL.
Player to Watch: Matt Kemp. For those who didn't pay attention last year, Kemp hit 35 HR with the Padres and Braves (23 in San Diego and 12 in Atlanta) and really looked like the Kemp of old in Atlanta as the season progressed. If the Braves are to make a legit run, Kemp has to be hitting like the old Matt Kemp and keep healthy.
2017 Projection: 80-82
4. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Key Arrivals: OF Michael Saunders (FA/Toronto), IF/OF Howie Kendrick (Trade/Los Angeles Dodgers), P Clay Buchholz (Trade/Boston), P Joaquin Benoit (FA/Toronto), P Pat Neshek (Trade/Houston), C Ryan Hanigan (FA/Boston), C Bryan Holaday (FA/Boston), OF Daniel Nava (FA/Kansas City)
Key Losses: P Charlie Morton (FA/Houston), P David Hernandez (FA/San Francisco), 1B Ryan Howard (FA), C AJ Ellis (FA/Miami), OF Peter Bourjos (FA/Chicago White Sox), OF Cody Asche (FA/Chicago White Sox), P Elvis Araujo (Waivers)
2017 OUTLOOK: I may be high on the Phils a good bit, but they upgraded a few key areas, notably in the bullpen. But questions are abound if Philadelphia has enough pitching to really be competitive. But they did add more experience in the rotation (Buchholz) and acquired a few vets to help out with this young team (Kendrick, Saunders, Hanigan). Similar to Atlanta, Philadelphia may be a year off, but this will be a team nobody will want to see by September, especially if teams are in the playoff chase.
Player to Watch: Clay Buchholz. The mystery that surrounds this guy is unbelievable. Some games he looks like the Buchholz he was from 2010-2013, but since then he looked like he lost it. But he is in a new atmosphere so it may help him, or that's what Philadelphia fans hope helps him. If not, the Phillies are going to be hurting for help in the rotation.
2017 Projection: 77-85
5. MIAMI MARLINS
Key Arrivals: P Dan Straily (Trade/Cincinnati), P Brad Ziegler (FA/Boston), P Junichi Tazawa (FA/Boston), P Edinson Volquez (FA/Kansas City), P Jeff Locke (FA/Pittsburgh), C AJ Ellis (FA/Philadelphia), P Severino Gonzalez (Trade/Philadelphia), P Kyle Lobstein (FA/Pittsburgh), C Ramon Cabrera (FA/Cincinnati)
Key Losses: P Mike Dunn (FA/Colorado), P Andrew Cashner (FA/Texas), C Jeff Mathis (FA/Arizona), 3B Chris Johnson (FA/Baltimore), OF Jeff Francoeur (FA), P Fernando Rodney (FA/Arizona),
2017 OUTLOOK: This was supposed to be a year where they would continue building the rotation around Fernandez, but it does make me wonder if Miami is now snakebit. The Marlins did their best in adding starters of Straily and Volquez, but let's face it, neither one are close to Fernandez. So this is a cross-your-fingers bit with the Marlins this year. They do have quality players, especially position players, but the starting pitching will have to step up. The bullpen is going to play a big role too. If the starters pitch great, the Marlins could make things VERY interesting in the East.
Player to Watch: Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton is one of the most intimidating hitters in baseball, but his issue is either he can't keep healthy or he just isn't what people are hoping he will become. Last year he was in only 117 games (injured) and did hit 27 HR. But he needs to be in the lineup more than 117 times and not hit .240 for Miami to be competitive in the NL East.
2017 Projection: 74-88
QUESTIONS TO THINK ABOUT:
1. Will Washington make a huge move at the deadline since the Nationals failed to get Sale and McCutchen? If the Nationals are leading and really trying to distance themselves from the likes of the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, and maybe Cardinals? Yes. But if they really wanted those two, they would have ponied up offers. Do you look at Braun or Martinez? Do you look at going after McCutchen again? Or do you make a splash to bring in a key pitcher for the stretch like Greinke? I think the Nationals will make a big move, but it will be pending on need.
2. Is David Wright done? Sadly, yes. He's dinged up and has an injury that will pretty much remain. New York may have to consider and offering Tampa Bay a fortune to get Evan Longoria.
3. Could the Braves be a threat for the Wild Card? Yes. It just depends on how the young players do. We know Freeman, Kemp, and Teheran will do their thing, but a lot of great hope resides with Swanson and probably Ozzie Albies. But the youth on the Braves is very impressive with the likes of Swanson, Inciarte, and Foltynewicz. It will have to come down if they all step up as a unit.
4. Is Philadelphia ready to make the next step in returning to glory? Yes. Maikel Franco is a guy that can be an all-star on a consistent basis while the added veterans like Kendrick and Ellis can guide the rest of the Phillies to win on a regular basis. But other players also have got to take the next step, like Cameron Rupp, Odubel Herrera, and Tommy Joseph. That part I am not worried with, but the starting pitching that could be a problem in Philly once again. There are some pieces like Velasquez and Eickoff, but they're going to need more.
5. Did Jose Fernandez's death really doom Miami? Yes because of what he brought for that town. A Cuban refugee himself, he resonated with the base big time and the games that he started were packed. But he also was a true Ace and a Cy Young candidate year in and year out (he probably should have won the Cy Young this year, even with the accident). You don't replace a guy like him and expect the staff to pick up like normal. Dan Straily maybe the Opening Day starter, but he isn't a Fernandez. So it may be a long year down in South Beach. Or yearS.
That is it for the NL East. One final look ahead next week with the AL West.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
