Indians Get An Expensive Upgrade In Edwin Encarnacion

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB off-season has been an odd one this year. Relievers & closers are in high demand while the sluggers have been somewhat on the side (save Ian Desmond who signed with Colorado this off-season; if you want to know my analysis of that move I'll sum it up: he'll do well but the Rockies will still lose 85-90). But yesterday one of the top sluggers went off the market: Edwin Encarnacion going to the Indians. The deal 3 years, $60 million with a club option for a 4th year which could make the total up to $80 million.

Great, yes? Well, in terms of the AL Central with the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers all selling or leaning towards being sellers, it pretty much solidifies Cleveland as the obvious favorite to win the division, and probably similar to those years in the mid-90's where nobody touched them. But does it really make the Indians all THAT better?  

Encarnacion never materialized completely in Cincinnati

I don't really zero in on fantasy baseball like I do fantasy football, but I do play it. And every year I always have had the same mentality with Edwin Encarnacion: steer clear of him because I wonder if he will revert to his earlier years. Maybe because when he first arrived onto the scene in Cincinnati he was merely average. His numbers were pretty good as a whole, but in a ballpark like the Reds, I figured he'd be a key figure in that lineup alongside Dunn, Votto, and others. And he never really panned out.   Cincinnati chose to go with a more experienced third baseman and traded Encarnacion to Toronto for Scott Rolen. In Encarnacion's first two years in Toronto, he didn't do a whole lot (38 HR total in 10 and 11) but then he went off, as only Chris Davis has hit more HR than Encarnacion since 2012. And the power numbers are near the top of the majors (HR, SLG%, RBI, OPS-though it took a nice drop in 2016). So what was the issue of Encarnacion unable to get a massive deal?

Probably because of the slight drop in performance in 2016 (despite hitting a career high 42 HR and 127 RBI). Encarnacion has never been one that hits for average. His career high is a .280 and last year went to .263 and the walks were the highest it's been. But he also played 160 games and had 600 AB's. The On-Base Percentage was lower than the year before as was his SLG%. Granted they are small drops, but drops nonetheless. Can Encarnacion play DH everyday in Cleveland, especially in the first month where temperatures are known to be in the 40's while having to go to places like Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago, also known to have cold weather in the first month? It is something to think about. Another factor is Encarnacion's age. He will be 34 when the season starts. Granted we've seen players have big years in this age and who knows, he might be one of them. But any slight drop from the year before does warrant a concern.  

Progressive Field is not like the Rogers Centre and the AL Central Ballparks aren't the AL East Ballparks

Also the ballpark factors. Encarnacion has been enjoying the benefits of being in a launching pad in Toronto. And then when he got out of the Rogers Centre he played in the other AL East parks (Baltimore, Boston, New York, Tampa Bay) where most of them are considered hitters' parks. And that is nearly 3/4ths of Toronto's season is in those parks. And while we remembered Cleveland being a launching pad in the 90's with Belle, Thome, and Ramirez, it has been more known now as a pitcher's park, to go along with Detroit, Kansas City, and Minnesota (yes, Chicago is also a launching pad). So there is going to be an adjustment going from bandboxes to more of the spacious parks in the AL. Granted, with the White Sox shipping away Sale, the only major threat of pitchers in the division will be Verlander, but still.....this could also play into a role in Encarnacion's performance. And looking at the numbers (albeit a semi-small sample), Encarnacion's numbers have not been too strong in those ballparks. 

AL CENTRAL BALLPARK

GAMES (AB'S)

AVG.

HR

OPS

PROGRESSIVE FIELD (CLEVELAND)

21 (91)

.275

2

.766

Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago White Sox)

14 (52)

.288

3

.906

Comerica Park (Detroit)

25 (96)

.229

3

.687

Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City)

22 (93)

.253

4

.861

Target Field (Minnesota)

23 (98)

.294

7

.930

Of course, the numbers are okay (great if you zero in on Minnesota and Chicago and given how he's torn up), but only 2 HR in Cleveland and 3 in Detroit?  Now granted, all of this, small sample size, but hypothetically if we got a gist of what Encarnacion can do in a full season with the Indians, we're talking a pace of 6 HR at Progressive and 15 overall in the division, give or take and that's nearly 3/4ths right there.  You're hoping for 25 more HR in about 45 games, give or take.  Not what I call bang for the buck.  

If you looked at Encarnacion's numbers in the AL East, career:

AL EAST BALLPARK

GAMES (AB'S)

AVG. 

HR

OPS

ROGERS CENTRE (TORONTO)

499 (1777)

.272

115

.895

Oriole Park (Baltimore)

62 (234)

.286

16

.922

Fenway Park (Boston)

50 (189)

.286

14

.892

Yankee Stadium (New York Yankees)

60 (230)

.270

15

.828

Tropicana Field (Tampa Bay)

63 (225)

.204

9

.673

Coincidentally the ballpark that has been regarded as the lone pitcher's park in the AL East has been considered Tampa Bay.  

To look at this signing, I think Cleveland did need that slugger they should have gotten at the deadline last year.  It will keep them a healthy distance away from the next competitor in the division (probably Detroit).  But I am not sure if Encarnacion is the guy that they should have ran out and gotten.  The numbers might look great, but time will tell if it is more about of what division he resided in.  

Mike Napoli was a solid bat to the Indians lineup last year, but obviously he wasn't the guy they could go for "long-term."  Encarnacion is an upgrade, but how big of an upgrade is it really?  Mike Napoli served the Indians well last year and while Encarnacion's numbers are overall better, it is not by a massive margin.  And, he is only a year younger than Napoli.

So overall, the Indians made an upgrade, but it is a very costly one at that. They are hoping Encarnacion will continue hitting 30-40 HR a year because if not it will be considered another signing similar to Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn.  But all will be forgotten if the Indians can hoist their first world championship in 69 years.

-Fan in the Obstructed Seat

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