Since They Won't Expand, Will the Big 12 Collapse? More Than Likely
The Big 12 Conference announced earlier in the week that they WON'T expand, so my post over the summer of which teams were considered candidates and after Week 1 I honestly thought it was a slam dunk BYU and Houston would be teams #11 and #12 is all over. So there is my Skip Bayless moment......
So what does that mean for the Big 12's Future? Cloudy in every aspect.
The first report was that it was unanimous that all 10 schools voted "no" to expansion. However, it doesn't sound that way as it is quite possible half were in favor of it, but couldn't get the needed votes so they all went with "no." So right off the bat, you probably have a lot of dissent between the schools in the Big 12 now.
And that's where the problems begin.
The face of the Big 12........or that's what Texas wants everybody to believe.
The Big 12 was created via Southwest and Big 8 conferences pretty much merging together about 23 years ago, thus making this conference the youngest out of the 5 power conferences........by a wide margin. While there is history in the schools, the history of the conference isn't there. Which means one thing: the big university teams have the sense of self-righteousness (Texas) while the rest are just pawns to their greatness.
TEXAS IS MESSING IT UP
For while it seemed like the Big 12 was the conference that even the SEC wished to have in 94-05. You had teams like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and even the likes of Texas A&M and Kansas State had quality years. Everything seemed ship-shape. And in 2010, the conference took a major hit: Nebraska and Colorado split for the Big Ten and the PAC-12 respectively. And these two programs were rivals and really major faces of the Big 12. So why did they split?
Texas. The Longhorns went into power-grab mode, trying to make money without helping out the conference. First the Longhorn Network and it seemed whatever decision the Big 12 made, benefited Texas, not necessarily the conference. It infuriated two more schools, including the Horns #1 rival, Texas A&M, and Missouri (who pretty much wanted to split at the same time as Nebraska to the Big 10) bolted for the SEC.
The Big 12's response? "We don't need storied programs like Texas A&M and Nebraska. We'll take TCU and West Virginia!"
7 years ago a TCU/West Virginia conference game would have been considered a hilarious joke.
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Good idea.
Don't get me wrong because I have always liked TCU and I am loving West Virginia possibly having a chance to win the Big 12, but these two aren't the same as the Aggies or Cornhuskers. I bet fans of the other Big 12 schools not named Texas went "oh Nebraska is coming to town!" or "hey, the Aggies are coming to town!" I don't think you get the same reaction to either the Mountaineers or TCU now. The Big 12 can cut it up however they want to but it isn't the same with those two programs.
And if Texas has been the culprit of driving them off, then that is one major reason why the Big 12 is in serious trouble.
BIG 12 PURISTS AGAINST EXPANSION? WHAT PLANET ARE THEY ON??????
Ohio State throttling Oklahoma in Norman is just one of the many out-of-conference losses the Big 12 has suffered.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
I love this thing that the Big 12 fans believe the conference doesn't need to expand. Honestly don't understand why. It is simple especially when you look at football. Without question they are worst of the Power 5 conferences. And it is like with 10 programs (and really 8 if you discount Iowa State and Kansas, both of whom would probably struggle against Division 2 programs) and they love playing "their style" of football, meaning let's light up the scoreboards and get fans to "ooh and ahh" over how they play while the defenses are total junk. Then they take credit for having some of the greatest offenses, where it is quick-strike, no-huddle, which many argue would keep baffling the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, etc. The problem is, not adding two programs, especially to offset the nightmare programs in Lawrence and Ames, makes the conference far weaker. And in case you didn't see it this year, the Big 12 has already gotten some black eyes during the season (Oklahoma lost to Houston and Ohio State, Texas has lost to California, TCU to Arkansas, Texas Tech to Arizona State, etc.) Yes, BYU and Houston might not have been sexy picks for improving the football especially or financially strategic areas (though Houston's market would have been big given that they had now been dominated by the SEC in ratings), but it was needed and it would have given them equal footing.
The TCU/Baylor game probably kept the Big 12 out of the first playoff.
Which brings me up to this and I have said it over & over: the Big 12 is severely handicapped from the playoff. You have the other power conferences playing an extra game. And we saw in 2014 that Ohio State's added game and winning the Big Ten while the "Co-Champions" of TCU and Baylor played 12. Fans of the Big 12 were up in arms and even the committee said "Ohio State played a championship game and they were the undisputed conference champ of their conference." Ohio State jumps ahead of both and TCU and Baylor get a pat on the back for two New Year's Six bowl games.
Oklahoma fans argued they should have played Bama instead of getting bullied by Clemson a second straight year.
The next year? Oklahoma gets in with an 11-1 record. Stanford lost two so the PAC-12 champ is out. But even then, Michigan State, by the fact they played an extra game in the Big Ten Championship, jumped ahead of the Sooners. And the committee looked at that. Was Oklahoma perhaps better than Michigan State? Probably, but that extra game jolted Michigan State. And the Sooners still got stomped by Clemson.
And the Big 12's reaction to both years? "We'll look into it."
At this point I want to say "You can take a good look at a t-bone steak by sticking your head up a bull's.........."
Now an interesting scenario presides. Let's say if West Virginia runs the table and so does Ohio State. Who probably gets the nod in the final playoff spot? The Buckeyes. They played an extra game and facing the likes of Michigan, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Nebraska (and probably either Wisconsin or Nebraska again) would possibly outweigh the likes of Oklahoma, Baylor, and "enter team here." What you will have is people in Morgantown scream bloody murder and then the Big 12 saying we got screwed. No you won't Big 12. You COULD have added teams and you refused. You were happy about it too (or is it Texas that is happy?) But hey, if the Big 12 backers want to support this decision of no-expansion, they will have to support the committee's decision.
SO WHAT NEXT?
The SEC with Oklahoma? It could be more & more likely.
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
DOMINO-KLAHOMA: Listening to the local radio where I am at and they discussed it a bit was the team to watch after this decision was made would be the Sooners. My first reaction after the decision was made was that Texas & Oklahoma used a power trip to make sure the expansion didn't happen. However, listening to it, I don't see how Oklahoma benefits from it either and it sounds perhaps, just perhaps, the Sooners are unhappy with the decision. Which means it could be a distinct possibility the Sooners might be looking at either the SEC or the PAC-12 for new membership. And as much as I ripped Bob Stoops and the Sooners style of play (especially after that 66-59 game against Texas Tech last Saturday), they are probably the most prestigious program the Big 12 has (yes, over Texas). And I think right now they are thinking "why on earth are we fiddling around with the likes of Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas Tech and not trying to improve ourselves against the likes of Alabama (don't want to hear about the Sugar Bowl win), LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn?" They HAVE to be at least considering the idea of talking to the SEC or the PAC-12. And I don't blame them.
If Oklahoma splits, that might be it. They would have been the last program to really stand up against to big bad Texas. Kansas? Iowa State? TCU? Baylor? No way. If Oklahoma leaves, you will see another re-alignment bit where probably ALL the teams save Texas joins a conference (there is already rumblings the Horns might join the Big 10 but I think Ohio State and Michigan would keep them in check, so that eliminates that idea).
Hypothetically speaking: Oklahoma joins the SEC. NC State joins the SEC (thus the SEC gets footing in NC). West Virginia joins the ACC. Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State joins the PAC-12 (which would in turn be the PAC-16), Kansas joins the Big Ten, Iowa State joins the Big Ten, Texas Tech joins the Mountain West or American. And Texas goes as an Independent.
Yes, I know, crazy and my idea. But if Oklahoma goes, the conference folds.
This scene could be history if the Big 12 doesn't make a decision soon.
WHAT THEY CAN DO TO SAVE THE CONFERENCE? If they hold out for an 8-team playoff, they might have to wait another 6-8 years, something that Oklahoma might not wait around for.
So they need to re-consider expansion, at least next season. If Texas has been pulling all of the strings, the other 9 teams need to stand united and tell them to screw off with their little TV contract. Losing Texas is nothing compared to losing Oklahoma I think. Now, the Big 12 would need to jump after a top program from another power 5 school, whether that is bringing back Nebraska and Texas A&M (though I think the Aggies are firmly entrenched in the SEC now) in order to survive. But right now, the Big 12's decision last week might have the beginning of the end for the conference.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
