The Downfall of the 2016 Denver Broncos: the Offense
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A month and a half ago, the Denver Broncos were 7-3. Yeah, they had to deal with the red-hot Oakland Raiders, but it didn't matter. They were rolling. Denver had the #2 defense in all of football and were en route to January football to defend their championship. And then..........................
1-4 in their last 5 games. In those games, the Broncos have scored 20 or less in the last 4 and 10 or less in the last three. And now the Broncos are joining the couch with their Super Bowl counterparts in the Panthers. So, where did it all go wrong? What caused Denver to go from having a great shot at defending their Super Bowl to being bounced out before Week 17?
It is simple: the offense, notably the running backs and the quarterback.
Trevor Siemian started off well, but has fallen apart down the stretch.
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The irony is, the writing was on the wall probably at the beginning of the season at quarterback with Trevor Siemian. A 7th round pick out of Northwestern in the 2015 draft, Siemian was the guy Denver announced would be the quarterback to replace Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler who surprisingly left for Houston, over the likes of future quarterback Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez. People held their breath on Siemian and thought it was a bad decision for him to start. However, Siemian rolled in his first five games, going 4-1, 64% completion rate, 7 TD, 3 INT and 1,054 yards with a 95 QBR in those games. It made fans feel good and laughed at the Houston Texans for throwing all the money at Brock Osweiler. All seemed fine.
Of all games, the changing point for Siemian was a 27-9 win over Osweiler and the Texans.
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Then inexplicably, things changed, and it started with Osweiler and Houston. The Broncos won 27-9, but Siemian didn't play great. Didn't play bad, but didn't play great (14/25, 157 yds and a TD). But given it was the Texans and that defense, it seemed understandable. Since that game however, Siemian has played below par. He completed only 58% of his passes, 8 TD's 6 INT, and 1,984 yds, but a 79 QBR. In those 7 games, the Broncos went 2-5 and Siemian was sacked 21 times, including 18 in a 4 game stretch. While he didn't get sacked against Kansas City, he was rushed and had his worst game to date, thus giving Broncos fans the vibe that Siemian is clearly not the man to replace Peyton Manning. Then again, Denver drafted Paxton Lynch for that mindset, and he is not really ready at this point himself.
Siemian did underachieve down the stretch, but to put the entire blame on him is silly. The two staples of Denver over the years dating back to the John Elway/Terrell Davis years where the Broncos won their first two Super Bowls was their running game and their offensive line. Denver had a good passing game all throughout this run, but it was the running backs and the offensive line who bullied opposing defenses to get the Broncos as one of NFL's premier teams.
But let's start at the backs, which might have been a house of cards for a while and it finally imploded in 2016. The Broncos average under 90 yards per game on the ground, good for 28th in the NFL, a far cry from the #1 running offense 5 years ago. Devontae Booker leads the Broncos with 555 rushing yards. Yes, 555. Now, it is mind-boggling to think Denver has gone so far backwards in the run game because we are thinking of an offensive power with the Broncos, but it is the case and it has failed the Broncos this year. Ironically, the running game, while wasn't overly dominant, took a key part in Denver's successes early on when Denver started off 7-3. They averaged 140 yards per game in the first two games against Carolina and Indianapolis (both wins) and any game they went over 100 yards, Denver went 5-1. Since their 3-game losing streak, the Broncos have averaged 46 total yards on the ground, thus showing a great sign of the collapse.
So with Siemian getting sacked and hit a lot, the running game nonexistent, it has to fall on the underachieving line or were there injuries? Outside of Donald Stephenson, who missed 4 games, the line has been very healthy. So they have underachieved. And this is a group that features the likes of Russell Okung, who hasn't been playing like his Seattle days this season. And that's where it really has gone south for Denver.
Manning was obviously at the end of his career and it showed, but Denver's line did not do him a lot of favors in 2015.
People believed Manning's age showed in his final season in Denver as he looked very human to the point he probably wasn't a top 20 quarterback. And that might have been true. But if 2016 said anything it said even Manning probably could have done better had the line was a bit better (Manning and Osweiler were sacked 39 times in 2015) and Denver's ground game wasn't overly strong then either. But the line has been a mess the last few seasons.
Denver will need to decide on what to do with Okung.
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Of course, many think it is time for Lynch to replace Siemian at quarterback. And perhaps it is a logical argument, but Denver's solution to improving the offense isn't really about a new quarterback, whether that is keeping Siemian, Lynch, or possibly bringing in Tony Romo (you want him to QB behind an underachieving offensive line?????) and drafting the likes of a Leonard Fournette or a Christian McCaffrey won't mean much if they cannot upgrade the line. They need to do upgrades. The Broncos will need to decide on Okung for next year, which means if they exercise it, he will stay around for 2 more years and $21 million. Is what Okung did enough for the Broncos to keep him around or were they let down? But the line needs more than just Okung to help out. Are they better served by drafting somebody like Cam Robinson or go after TJ Lang? I guess we will find out in March/April when the off-season rolls in.
While Denver's "collapse" is nothing like Carolina in 2016, there are some key issues on the team. Yes, the running game is very weak right now, even with a great line and there are questions at quarterback. But the first thing to do is get a good offensive line to evaluate what exactly the Broncos have with Lynch, Siemian, or Booker. If not, then Denver might remain in the middle of the pack for a while.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
