The Obstructed AFC Championship Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
While the NFC has the legendary Packers going against the Falcons who want to start a legend themselves, the AFC is going to have a championship of the two best teams in the Super Bowl Era. The Steelers and Patriots have 10 Super Bowls among them, 16 Super Bowl appearances, and just great players to go along with two great fan bases. Pittsburgh, for the longest time has ran the AFC while New England under Belicheck and Brady have been the one running the show for really the past 15 seasons, even putting down the Steelers in 2 playoff games (both in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship in 01 and 04). The Patriots have been pretty much the NFL's best team in 2016, beating everybody down, offensively, defensively, special teams, etc. Pittsburgh however, rolled at the halfway point and hasn't looked back themselves to put themselves in the AFC Championship. So, who will take it? How can they win? Let's see.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 6:40, CBS:
PITTSBURGH WINS IF:
Kicking six field goals won't help Pittsburgh much against the Patriots.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY CAN SCORE TOUCHDOWNS: Beating Kansas City with field goals is one thing. The Chiefs have a somewhat of a sub-par offense especially when the likes of Hill & Maclin aren't making big plays. And it is also predictable with them really making Kelce as the main/only option at times. But they need to finish drives. Pittsburgh, despite winning by 2, seemed like they were the dominant team in that game. But it is a problem if they cannot do that in New England because we know that the Patriots will put up points. The Steelers have to answer back as many times as they can. Field goals won't cut it.
Pittsburgh needs to find a way to neutralize Blount and focus on Brady.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
2. FIND A WAY TO MAKE NEW ENGLAND ONE-DIMENSIONAL: Easier said than done of course. Obviously it means stopping Blount & the running game. The Steelers will have to really take one aspect out to focus on another and while the Patriots didn't really look "weakened" by Houston last week, there were some things Houston was doing well on the Patriots, even in their passing game. But that dimension of running for New England is what really keeps teams off-balanced.
Pittsburgh needs to come up big in terms of getting a few takeaways.
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
3. WIN THE TURNOVER WAR: Brady showed he was human to the #1 defense in football last week, despite winning. And it was one reason why the game was very close for a while between the Texans and Patriots. Then Houston realized they had Brock Osweiler and that was that. But the one concern is Pittsburgh, notably Roethlisberger, has issues of turning the ball over as well. They have to take the ball instead of give the ball. If they cannot do that, this game is going to be an easy Patriots win.
Lewis will have to be in the Steelers minds Sunday.
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
4. DO NOT LET THE PATRIOTS WIN THE FIELD OF POSITION BATTLE: There are 3 teams in the NFL all season that if you gave them great field position to start drives they make you pay every time. And those three are still alive (Patriots, Falcons, Packers). Pittsburgh has to make sure the Patriots start deep as many times as possible. Not an easy task, but this game could come down to who has better field position. Pittsburgh also has to make sure they have good field position themselves so they can have an easier time punching it in.
Big Ben will have to outplay Brady.
5. ROETHLISBERGER OUTDUELS BRADY: Again, easier said than done. Big Ben has been a strong quarterback and a better passing quarterback over time and has the weapons. But even this year, sometimes he gets a bit flustered with blitzes and tries to do too much. He has to stay within his game and play like he is capable of playing. But Big Ben will have to play out of his mind in New England in order for the Steelers to have a chance.
NEW ENGLAND WINS IF:
Brady will have to orchestrate some long drives to keep the Killer B's off the field.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY KEEP PITTSBURGH'S OFFENSE ON THE SIDELINES: The Patriots and the Falcons are probably the only two teams whose offenses can beat you in numerous ways, either via the big play or ball control the tar out of teams. This might be one game where the Pats just try to keep Ben, Bell, and Brown on the sidelines with short passes and running the clock so they can keep them from establishing any rhythm.
Keeping Big Ben uncomfortable will be a key factor in New England's success.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
2. PRESSURE ROETHLISBERGER: I mentioned earlier that Roethlisberger sometimes tries too much when teams come after him. Even in these playoffs that has been the case. I can see the Patriots blitz Big Ben all day just for that. If the Patriots pressure him a good bit, I can see Roethlisberger making a mistake or two, which could ultimately be the deciding factor of this game.
Pittsburgh can be frustrated if they aren't punching it in again.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
3. KEEP THE STEELERS OUT OF THE END ZONE: New England can play shootout with the likes of Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Green Bay if they wanted to. However, if you're a Steeler fan, you can't be but a little alarmed the Steelers had issues getting a touchdown in Kansas City. And the Chiefs aren't the Patriots either offensively or defensively. If New England can manage only allowing a touchdown and the rest being field goal attempts, they will be pretty safe.
The Patriots will easily dictate the tempo if they get off to a fast start.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
4. TAKE AN EARLY, DECISIVE LEAD: Sounds semi-redundant in all my previews, but Pittsburgh, despite all the offensive power they do have, has not been the best of teams of coming back from deficits (throw the Cleveland game out of the equation given that was like a pre-season for the Steelers and the fact they played the Browns with 2nd stringers). But if New England does get off to a fast start, it will be problems for the Steelers and Le'Veon Bell is pretty much out of the equation in that aspect. So a big start for the Patriots pretty much sets them up for the rest of the game.
MY PREDICTION: I think this game is going to be close throughout. I don't see either side making a big early jump on the other and points will be put up in this game as well. However, I think that Roethlisberger will commit a key interception at some point in the second half that will really tilt the favor for the Patriots in this game and I think it will be enough for New England to dictate the game late, which means a 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years and a chance for Lombardi Trophy #5 in Foxboro. PATRIOTS 34, STEELERS 27
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
