The Obstructed NCAA Preview for Week 12
The end is near.
The college football season is in the final two weeks before bowls. And things are always fun this time of year for football. Some of the craziest things happen that we never expect. Everything can change with one loss here or there.
Since I was at the Clemson/Wake Forest game I didn't do any picks so I am doubling it this week because of rivalry week. This year I am currently 90-44 with my picks (8-6 two weeks ago thanks to upsets galore). And it would be an injustice to not do the rivalry games or "rivalry" games as some are faux rivalries, but I'll cover those too.
(16) LSU @ (25) TEXAS A&M, THURSDAY, 7:30, ESPN: Better known as the Alabama Hangover Bowl or another one might be "Losing Coach Leaves Town Bowl" as it seems like after both teams play Alabama, they go into a tailspin and never recover. LSU has somewhat reverted back to the offensive style of what Les Miles had going before he got canned, save for the Arkansas game, which the Razorbacks are a giant mess on defense this season. Texas A&M has gone 2-2 since losing to Bama and both losses were to the lowly Mississippi schools and the lone wins were to New Mexico State and UTSA. Not necessarily giving the Aggie fans a lot of hope. The question is can the LSU offense move on the Aggie defense and if the Aggie defense can play 4 quarters, which they really haven't since the Tennessee game actually. But the Texas A&M QB situation might be on the same level as LSU's at this point and that is not a compliment. But LSU if they have Fournette for that game, should be fine. It will depend on who has any kind of passing game. My guess will be LSU given the Aggies have gone in self-destruct mode again. And one has to wonder if Kevin Sumlin (if he loses to LSU, he will be 1-9 v. Alabama and LSU) will have a new job next year as the Longhorns might not be the only team in the state to look for a new head coach. MY PREDICTION: LSU 17, TEXAS A&M 13
NC STATE @ NORTH CAROLINA, FRIDAY, 12:00, ESPN: I had some hopes for the Wolfpack early on as I thought they were going to be a sleeper team in the ACC (in the sense of not going 4-8 or 3-9), but ever since they lost that heartbreaker in Clemson, the Wolfpack have gone into self-destruct mode themselves. North Carolina has something to play for however. If they win and Virginia Tech loses, the Tar Heels get a rematch with Clemson in the ACC Championship. Also a storyline is both Larry Fedora and Dave Doeren are answering questions about job statuses. Fedora is rumored for bigger jobs (LSU maybe?) while Doeren is avoiding the "hot seat" question so that could factor as well as NC State fighting for a bowl game. But with on-field stuff, I think Mitch Trubisky will have a field day throwing on the Wolfpack's secondary and NC State just has no answer at all for the Tar Heels offense. MY PREDICTION: NORTH CAROLINA 38, NC STATE 21
ARKANSAS @ MISSOURI, 2:30, FRIDAY, CBS: Battle Line Rivalry. Well, hard to think this is an offensive-minded game, but it is quite possible, given how both sides love to play a Big 12 style game now of scoring or allowing 50 points per game. The Razorbacks can play some offense, but give up way too much on defense. And well, the same definitely applies for Missouri, but neither side plays any defense at all. This could be a running back's delight here and a fun game to watch in the sense of offense, but defensively, this is going to be ugly. Missouri just cannot play any defense while Arkansas plays very little defense. Hence, the advantage goes to Arkansas. And the Tigers become one step closer to being the SEC's favorite whipping boy. MY PREDICTION: ARKANSAS 55, MISSOURI 41
TCU @ TEXAS, 3:30, FRIDAY, FS1: Well, this is probably Charlie Strong's final hurrah as coach of Texas. But while the Longhorns did lose to Kansas last week, the Frogs played as listless as possible against Oklahoma State. It was like they didn't even bother showing up. That is troubling for a team that already had some issues and let's face it Kenny Hill makes some of the worst decisions at the most inopportune times. I think the Longhorns wake up and bring down TCU fairly easy. The Frogs definitely mailed it in for the season after last week. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS 38, TCU 20
(18) NEBRASKA @ IOWA, 3:30, FRIDAY, ABC: Heroes Game. If Tommy Armstrong plays, it improves the Huskers chances. But right now, the win over Michigan gave Iowa that jolt they needed to really save their season from falling into the toilet. And Nebraska while they have played better since the shellacking they took against Ohio State, haven't shown they can take down a top 25 team on the road. If Armstrong doesn't play, the Huskers will have major issues moving the ball against the Hawkeyes. If they do, he will have some success, but probably not a whole lot. Iowa still has a pretty good defense that can bully opposing offenses around. I like Iowa here. MY PREDICTION: IOWA 20, NEBRASKA 14
(5) WASHINGTON @ WASHINGTON STATE, 3:30, FRIDAY, FOX: The Apple Cup has great meaning. This year is win and you're in the PAC-12 Championship. The Huskies had a great rebound win over Arizona State, throttling them (who hasn't this year?) But the question lingers if the Huskies are the same team before the USC game? Washington State was rolling until they got to Colorado and lost to the Huskies, a team that played some physical defense. I said at the beginning of the year the PAC-12 North would come down to this game and had the Cougars winning. I think overall the Huskies are a better team, but the game is in Pullman and it is a rivalry game with great implications. For some reason I think the Cougars stun the Huskies here as they get up for this game, thus likely opening the door for the likes of Colorado, Ohio State, and possibly the Big Ten winner not named Ohio State (Wisconsin/Penn State). MY PREDICTION: WASHINGTON STATE 38, WASHINGTON 35
(20) BOISE STATE @ AIR FORCE, 3:30, FRIDAY, CBSN: If the Playoff Committee placed the Broncos of Boise State over the Broncos of Western Michigan, it is probably because of the Washington State game. However, again, game played in a hostile environment where it can get super cold (though Boise is accustomed to it) and against a pesky Air Force squad. I don't think Boise State likes playing physical games and the Air Force game constitutes as one. I think the Broncos will get tripped up this weekend thus solidifying the other Broncos team across the country to get a New Year's Six playoff. Even if they win, they need Wyoming to lose. MY PREDICTION: AIR FORCE 24, BOISE STATE 21
TOLEDO @ (21) WESTERN MICHIGAN, 5:00, ESPN2: Final week of the regular season, a Michigan school plays an Ohio school with great implications of a conference championship on the line. You'd think I'd be talking Michigan/Ohio State and you're actually right, but also this game. The Broncos want that 12-0 season and propel them ahead of Boise State. Toledo, if they win will take the division away from the Broncos. This game will be a fight I think and could come down to the last play. Western has gotten some big wins but they also had close games too. This will be another close game and let's see if Toledo, whose lone two losses were a total of 7 points (then we'd really have some fun if the Rockets were 11-0) can finish the job. Western Michigan will be rabid that game I think because this means slightly more than it does for Toledo. But just slightly. MY PREDICTION: WESTERN MICHIGAN 31, TOLEDO 27
BAYLOR VS. TEXAS TECH, 6:00, FRIDAY, ESPN: "The Allas Bowl-missing D" When does a team that loses to IOWA STATE 66-10 become a more stable team than the one they are facing? When you have to face Baylor. More off-field issues with the Bears (associate AD getting arrested now) and of course all the sexual assault allegations still hover the team. It is why Baylor has lost 4 in a row including another embarrassing home loss to Kansas State. Baylor just looks beaten in every way possible. Even a team who got thumped by Iowa State by 56 (no excuse) should not have many issues against Baylor. But if the Red Raiders lose and big, Kingsbury should be gone the minute he sets foot in Lubbock. MY PREDICTION: TEXAS TECH 59, BAYLOR 41
ARIZONA STATE @ ARIZONA, 9:30, FRIDAY, ESPN: "Duel in the Desert" Well I was right that neither team would do much this year, but evidently wrong on both coaches probably being canned for it. Why I don't know. Graham and his no-huddle, move the ball quick, quick-strike offense is failing badly and the defense is paying for it (35 or more points allowed 7 times, 5 of them in losses; bear in mind the two wins were to godawful defenses of Cal and Texas Tech). Rodriguez and Arizona crashed and burned with the spread............and also being unable to stop anybody. And the only game you came close to winning was BYU Week 1. However, the Sun Devils are also reeling. It is in Tucson and I think Arizona will score just enough and make one more stop than Arizona State will and at least give RichRod a W to end this miserable season. But both will be on a red hot seat for 2017. MY PREDICTION: ARIZONA 45, ARIZONA STATE 41
GEORGIA TECH @ GEORGIA, 12:00, ESPN: "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate." Fans of both teams gear up for this one for bragging rights for the next 365 days. More of it has gone Georgia's way lately but the Jackets did win the last time in Athens. Georgia has rebounded from an abysmal start and have turned it around since the Kentucky win, while Tech had a resounding W in Blacksburg 2 weeks ago and then handled Virginia last week. This could be a fight again and if Georgia Tech keeps rolling, it will be a last play kind of game. But I think Georgia is just too physical for Tech though to really get the Jackets moving the ball at will Tech's offense falls into Georgia's strength. MY PREDICTION: GEORGIA 21, GEORGIA TECH 17
PURDUE @ INDIANA, 12:00, ESPNU: "Old Oaken Bucket." I thought Indiana would surprise to the point they could have been what Penn State was this year. However, after the Michigan State win they never got anything rolling and unable to beat Nebraska and Northwestern when it counted. That's where it mattered. However, while Purdue will put up a fight, they aren't anywhere as talented and still haven't learned to play 4 quarters yet. Indiana should be bowl eligible after Saturday. MY PREDICTION: INDIANA 38, PURDUE 24
KENTUCKY @ (?) LOUISVILLE, 12:00, ESPN: What a difference a week makes. As everybody thought Louisville would sneak in the playoff as a 1-loss non-conference champ, they get pulverized by Houston. Well, the playoff is out of the consideration. So now what is next because it looked like the Cards were hung over playing Houston and possibly angry at the idea of them being #5 instead of top 4. Whatever the case, the Cardinals need to recover and win the Governor's Cup to a Kentucky team who finally will make a bowl game. That said, the Wildcats defense is a mess again after a nice run of playing well. Lamar Jackson at this point just needs to do his thing for his case as the Heisman Trophy winner. It might be ugly in Cardinal Stadium. MY PREDICTION: LOUISVILLE 59, KENTUCKY 24
RUTGERS @ MARYLAND, 12:00, ESPNNEWS: I'm coining it the "This is a Big Ten Game Bowl?" With Kansas winning Saturday, the Knights take over the moniker as the worst Power 5 school in the nation. And it hasn't even been close. They are not competitive, awful on offense, awful on defense, etc. Maryland has a bowl berth to play for and I think they get the job done this week in a big way. They alongside Penn State and Nebraska are an improved team in the Big Ten. MY PREDICTION: MARYLAND 49, RUTGERS 7
(3) MICHIGAN @ (2) OHIO STATE, 12:00 ABC: The game of the day obviously. But questions abound Michigan with Wilson Speight. Can he play and if so what condition is he in? That does give an advantage to the Buckeyes as it does take the passing game away from Michigan. So the question is, can the Wolverines run on Ohio State's defense? Remember, Michigan State did run it VERY well on Ohio State last weekend. So Michigan will have to go one-dimensional if Speight isn't available to go. But the last time a team from Michigan went to Ohio State without their starting QB, that team won so anything is possible. But can it happen two years in a row? MY PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 17, MICHIGAN 13
VIRGINIA @ VIRGINIA TECH, 12:00, ESPN2: "Commonwealth Cup." Obviously, the story is can the Hokies punch their ticket to the ACC Championship? Bronco Mendenhall might feel like he is in a nightmare right now but the thing is, the Cavs have fought hard despite the 2-9 record. This might not be a game to overlook for the Hokies, but Virginia will have to play above their minds especially on offense to have a shot. But the Hokies should keep them at bay on both sides. MY PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 34, VIRGINIA 24
KANSAS @ KANSAS STATE, 12:00, FS1: "Sunflower Showdown". Really? That is the best they came up with? Congrats are in order for Kansas for winning a Big 12 game over Texas. But now you get a Kansas State squad where any team in the Big 12 doesn't want to deal with. But the Jayhawks might use that win over Texas for momentum. That said, it might be close for a half until the Wildcats pull away in the 2nd. MY PREDICTION: KANSAS STATE 41, KANSAS 20
ILLINOIS @ NORTHWESTERN, 12:00, BTN: "Land of Lincoln Trophy." Lovie Smith probably went backwards in his first season as the Illini coach. They play hard, but just not there. Northwestern fell backwards this year themselves, but still have enough talent on both sides to win. I think the Wildcats should win this game with a better overall attack on offense and homefield will play big here too. MY PREDICTION: NORTHWESTERN 34, ILLINOIS 20
SYRACUSE @ PITTSBURGH, 12:30, ACCN: "Old Big East Rivalry?" "Northeastern Country Rivalry?" Whatever. But the thing is, this game would be intriguing if Eric Dungey is/was playing. But from all likelihoods, no. And Pitt is rolling ever since their win in Clemson so momentum is on their side, thanks in part to James Connor and Quadree Henderson. That run game is going to be a pain for every ACC team next year. But I am getting way ahead of myself. This is going to be ugly despite Dino Babers pumping his team up as always. MY PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 44, SYRACUSE 17
MICHIGAN STATE @ (8) PENN STATE, 3:30, ESPN: "Land Grant Trophy." This is a rivalry largely because of the two main rivals the teams have, have a bigger rival so this is more of a friendly rivalry as neither side has any real hate towards the others. Michigan State is just finishing the schedule up on a massive collapse of a season from being the Big Ten champs the year before. But they aren't playing on a Rutgers-esque level, nearly stunning Ohio State and taking Michigan deep into the game late. But those games were in East Lansing. This is Happy Valley. And Penn State has a wave of momentum rolling and a win sends them to Indianapolis. The game will be close, but somebody on Michigan State will make a mistake that will open a floodgate at some point. When that happens, Penn State has it in the bag. MY PREDICTION: PENN STATE 37, MICHIGAN STATE 24
(15) AUBURN @ (1) ALABAMA, 3:30, CBS: "Iron Bowl." Well this game lost some zip 2 weeks ago when Auburn lost to Georgia and gave Alabama the SEC West crown. Which means in reality even if Bama loses, nothing really happens, but this is a bragging rights game as it is very intense with the fans. That said, Auburn plays into Alabama's strength of going against the run. Gus can play the "we'll evaluate who starts at QB" thing again, but neither one can pass at this point, which means it could be a long night for the Tigers, who cannot do well against physical defenses at all. Auburn has a great shot at a Sugar Bowl game if they win so it might mean a bit more for Auburn, but Alabama is on another level at this point. I don't see Auburn doing much especially in Tuscaloosa. MY PREDICTION: ALABAMA 31, AUBURN 10
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ OLE MISS, 3:30, SECN: "Egg Bowl." Fitting given both laid mega eggs this year. Mississippi State can't stop anybody on offense and just look outmatched in every game, even in some of the wins. Ole Miss, surrounded by violations of their own and it just has a sense of disarray, got SPANKED by Vanderbilt. This isn't about who is the better team, but which team was far worse. Given it is in Oxford and Ole Miss has put up solid fights even in losses until recently, the Rebels should have no issue disposing of the Bulldogs for the 3rd straight year. Mississippi State is just flat-out BAD. And the Rebs sneak in a bowl. MY PREDICTION: OLE MISS 38, MISSISSIPPI STATE 10
MINNESOTA @ (7) WISCONSIN, 3:30 BTN: "Paul Bunyan's Axe" This game might be a trench war as both love to play that physical style. However, I have to give the advantage of the Badgers with a few more gifted athletes that could take over the game. Minnesota just doesn't have that yet. But this game will be close I think but again, Wisconsin will make a few more big plays, effectively sending them to the Big Ten Championship (well, they probably got it wrapped the day before if Iowa beats Nebraska). MY PREDICTION: WISCONSIN 20, MINNESOTA 14
NOTRE DAME @ (12) USC, 3:30 ABC: "Jeweled Shillelagh." Only Baylor and to an extent Ole Miss has had a bigger car wreck season as Notre Dame had. Brian Kelly pretty much pointed the finger at everybody else but him in their losses and has been very pompous about it. And the loss to Virginia Tech didn't help. Now the AD said that Kelly's job is safe in 2017, but if USC stomps on them, like I think they will (great offense against a crummy Notre Dame defense?) he might have to re-consider it. The Irish are a mess and USC is rolling thanks to Sam Darnold. This might be an epic beatdown in this game. MY PREDICTION: USC 55, NOTRE DAME 20
OREGON @ OREGON STATE, 4:00 PAC-12: "Civil War." Oregon got a nice win in Utah and ended the Utes chances at a PAC-12 championship so maybe there is a changing of the guard there. Could be too little too late for Mark Helfrich, who has been maligned after 2 years removed from the national championship runner up. Oregon State comes of a resounding W over Arizona where they have some momentum going in as well. And one thing to consider, even when the Ducks have been great and the Beavers have been a mess, this game always has a knack for being close, regardless of where the game is played. With Oregon down, despite the W in Utah, I can see the Beavers do just enough on the ground especially to beat the Ducks, thus ending Helfrich's career in Eugene. Chip Kelly reunion perhaps? MY PREDICTION: OREGON STATE 38, OREGON 35
UCLA @ CAL, 7:00, ESPN2: I figured Cal would struggle without Goff, but UCLA is a mystery with starters returning and a good QB in Rosen. Never ever panned out for the Bruins this year. The defense, while supposed to be a staple, has fallen flat, and Rosen took a step backwards. While Cal isn't USC for the Bruins nor UCLA is Stanford for the Bears, this is still a pretty fierce rivalry. I will give a slight nod to the Bears here at home and will move the ball fairly well and something is just missing about the 2016 Bruins this season. MY PREDICTION: CAL 41, UCLA 24
SOUTH CAROLINA @ (4) CLEMSON, 7:30, ESPN: On paper, this should look like a dominant Clemson win. Well, I said that two weeks ago on Pittsburgh. If the Tigers play four quality quarters, something they haven't done since Syracuse, they should win easy. But if they screw around like they have most of the season this will be one that everybody will look at very closely. As much as I hate to say it, Will Muschamp did a good job this year for inheriting a giant mess. They're bowl bound and he still has a pretty strong defense. The question will be can South Carolina generate enough offense? My guess is no, but this game will be close in the 4th quarter. Too close for comfort in my eyes if you're a Clemson fan. MY PREDICTION: CLEMSON 24, SOUTH CAROLINA 20
(19) TENNESSEE @ VANDERBILT, 7:30, SECN: This might be intriguing as well. Vanderbilt has a physical defense and ironically when the pressure is off, the Vols offense finally starts to click. And Vandy has a chance at a bowl game if they can beat Tennessee. The question is that did the Vols just have an easy run the last 3 games (Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri) or will Vanderbilt present them a key problem. I don't see Tennessee scoring at will and if Vanderbilt's offense keeps moving like they had last week, this game could also raise some eyebrows (if it really mattered on the national scale). But Tennessee might be too much in the end. MY PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 28, VANDERBILT 24
UTAH @ (10) COLORADO, 7:30 FOX: "Rumble in the Rockies" So outside of the Michigan/Ohio State game, the next two big games of the weekend might be the Apple Cup and this game. Raise your hands if you had these two being the big games of the week. Anyway, the Buffaloes are probably this year's surprising team, being 9-2 and a chance not only at a PAC-12 championship but an outside chance at the playoff. All they need to do is beat Utah. And the Utes lost to Oregon so they are looking for an improved effort so this game will be close all throughout. Probably what Colorado doesn't need is to play against a ticked off Utah squad. But they have been pretty sound on both sides of the ball so it might not matter and this game is in Boulder. This will also be a close game until the end. MY PREDICTION: COLORADO 27, UTAH 24
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
