The Obstructed NCAA Tournament Preview
So, the college basketball season's big dance is here. 68 teams, 1 dream. Of course, fans who think their bracket is THE bracket to win it all and be "the guy" whether on ESPN's Tournament Challenge, CBS Challenge, Yahoo, etc. is but a Pipe Dream. Of course, mine's perfect so I'm waiting for that fame and fortune moment where I am that one in quintrillion shot (yeah right!).
Anyway, all kidding aside, doing the brackets this year for me was incredibly hard. Of course, you have to figure out the upset picks and the teams that may surprisingly get deep into the tournament. And teams that may be the sexy pick such as Duke or Arizona or Kansas you may have to steer clear from a bracket-buster. I am pretty certain my brackets will go bye-bye Thursday night, but we'll see how things are. I didn't over-analyze like I did last year where I spent hours on end to fill out the truly perfect bracket where I had Michigan State to win it all. Of course, it was one and done for the Spartans as I had to come off the ledge. This year, I tried to look at patterns and numbers somewhat on a whim, but also look at other intangibles (including neutral site locations, mid-majors with history of being in the tournament and teams' consistencies or inconsistencies). It isn't perfect for sure and I will probably have my bracket gone middle afternoon Thursday.
How I will review it is going to be somewhat simple. I will analyze each region, predicting the winner, finding upset picks, teams possibly making a deep run, and possible dream match-ups. Here we go.
EAST REGION:
Teams: #1 Villanova vs. #16 Mt. St. Mary's/New Orleans, #8 Wisconsin vs. Virginia Tech, #5 Virginia vs. #12 UNC Wilmington, #4 Florida vs. #13 East Tennessee, #6 SMU vs. #11 USC/Providence, #3 Baylor vs. #14 New Mexico State, #7 South Carolina vs. #10 Marquette, #2 Duke vs. #15 Troy
OUTLOOK: I think there are a few teams who need to be on upset watch outside of Villanova and I can see any of the other games happen including Duke vs. Troy (I don't have Troy to win, but if Duke isn't in their right frame of mind, there could be trouble). I think Villanova may be better than last year's squad that won the whole thing and while I think either Baylor, Duke (if motivated), or SMU can give them a run, I think it is the Wildcats region to lose.
UPSET PICK: #12 UNC WILMINGTON OVER #5 VIRGINIA: The Seahawks have made a second straight trip, winning the CAA for the 2nd straight year and in impressive fashion. And we've seen programs in this conference in the past have strong runs (George Mason, Georgia State). Virginia has also become a regular near-the-top-seed, though this has been their lowest seeding since 2014 and really the offense is stagnant at times and they play a style of offense where they like that ball control, meaning while the defense is very good, they aren't as deadly as what others make them out to be. Adding on, if Wilmington gets off to a fast start, I don't think Virginia will recover.
2ND UPSET PICK: #13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE OVER #4 FLORIDA: With injuries and the Gators sputtering down the stretch, this has a lot of signs of an upset. ETSU can shoot the ball well enough and have strong defense that can give the Gators fits all game. So I can see Florida fall down in this one.
TEAM THAT COULD REALLY MAKE SOME NOISE: SMU. The Mustangs play a balanced style of basketball and dominated the AAC from beginning to end and them being a #6 team in a good quality conference is a bit surprising. While my bracket doesn't have them beating Baylor, if they can escape that game, I'd be very worried if I am the rest of the remaining teams in the East.
POSSIBLE DREAM MATCH-UP: BAYLOR VS. VILLANOVA: I actually have this as my Elite Eight match-up, but I think the athleticism in this game would be something to see with the Bears and Wildcats. I don't know if a Duke/Villanova would be as exciting, though I think that would generate some great match-ups.
MY EAST REGION WINNER: VILLANOVA. I think the Wildcats are too stacked for any team to come out of the region. Duke would have fits and I think Baylor will have its best shot, but I think sometimes they don't play a full 40 minutes either. That's why I give the nod to the defending champions.
WEST REGION:
Teams: #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 South Dakota State, #8 Northwestern vs. #9 Vanderbilt, #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Princeton, #4 West Virginia vs. Bucknell, #6 Maryland vs. #11 Xavier, #3 Florida State vs. #14 Florida Gulf Coast, #7 St. Mary's vs. #10 VCU, #2 Arizona vs. #15 North Dakota
OUTLOOK: I think many pen this as either Gonzaga's region or Arizona's region to lose as it may be down to those two teams. Honestly, aside from West Virginia, I can see that. I think too many inconsistencies among the others such as Notre Dame and Florida State make this a somewhat of a path that is not too bumpy for either one, until they play each other. And yes, I have Gonzaga/Arizona as my match-up in the Regional Final. And I can see either one winning that game.
UPSET PICK: #12 PRINCETON VS. #5 NOTRE DAME: I get the Irish are a good team, but I think getting as far as they did in the ACC may have hurt for some reason and I think this is ripe for that famous #12 vs. #5 upset. Notre Dame has made the Elite Eight the last two years, but I don't think this team is as strong or as good as the one that took Kentucky to the brink in 2015. And you can never sit back on Princeton.
TEAM THAT COULD REALLY MAKE NOISE: WEST VIRGINIA. I could see the Mountaineers if they face Gonzaga, give the Bulldogs fits and possibly disrupt the Arizona/Gonzaga rematch later on. And if that is the case, I don't think Arizona would want to see the Mountaineers either. But that game between West Virginia and Gonzaga (if it happens) would be a dogfight.
POSSIBLE DREAM MATCH-UP: GONZAGA VS. ARIZONA: I know this is the expected match-up by many (myself included), but I think everybody wants to see it given they are probably two best teams in the west this year. Gonzaga won an early meeting with Arizona, to which many think that decided the #1 and #2 seeds out in the West, but there also has to be a revenge factor for the Wildcats as they do not like losing to a team they lost previously (who doesn't?)
MY WEST REGION WINNER: ARIZONA. Again, it can be either one and it may come down to the final shot. I think the revenge factor gives the Wildcats the nod over the Zags though. But it wouldn't surprise me if Gonzaga wins it either.
MIDWEST REGION:
Teams: #1 Kansas vs. #16 NC Central/UC Davis, #8 Miami vs. #9 Michigan State, #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Nebraska, #4 Purdue vs. #13 Vermont, #6 Creighton vs. #11 Rhode Island, #3 Oregon vs. #14 Iona, #7 Michigan vs. #10 Oklahoma State #2 Louisville vs. #15 Jacksonville State
OUTLOOK: Oh boy. This is the bracket I expect at least in my case to be busted in day one or two. People religiously pen Kansas as the automatic Midwest winner, but history shows Kansas has fallen apart, and in this region it is VERY possible. I don't think they should have issues with either #16 team (though I think UC Davis can at least stay in for a half if they get them), but then the Jayhawks either face Miami, who is known to upset teams or Michigan State, whose calling card is going deep into the tournament year in and year out (save last year). If the Jayhawks get past that, they could see Big 12 nemesis Iowa State, a team who has knocked them off already this season, or a very tough Purdue squad, or maybe they get to the Elite Eight and see Louisville, Creighton, Michigan, or Oregon, teams all capable of putting Kansas out too. So if Kansas does get back to the Final Four, the road is VERY bumpy. So will they?
UPSET PICK: #13 VERMONT VS. #4 PURDUE: I can see Purdue going REALLY far in the tournament actually, but each year there is that one team I can see go very far in the tournament only to get bounced out in the first round. For some reason I think Purdue is it. They have played just fine, but I think Vermont, with a history of their own in winning some first round tourney games, has a pretty good defense, and could give the Boilermakers fits.
TEAM THAT COULD REALLY MAKE SOME NOISE: MICHIGAN STATE: The best years for Michigan State basketball is when they aren't at the forefront of the nation. And the talent is young, and while there seems to be some issues on the team that really haven't been there in the past (chemistry notably), you never can count out Michigan State in March. And possibly a match-up between Michigan State and Kansas, a team who has issues in March), could lead to some brackets being busted. That said, my hope is my bracket gets busted earlier for I have MSU out in the first round. Shame on me.
POSSIBLE DREAM MATCH-UP: MICHIGAN VS. MICHIGAN STATE: The hatred and rivalry is already intense between the schools that reside in Ann Arbor and East Lansing. A game to decide who gets to the Final Four between these squads? It will just pick up the disdain for Big & Little Brothers. That said, I have Michigan State out in the first and Michigan out in the second. But it is MY pipe dream.
MY MIDWEST REGION WINNER: LOUISVILLE. I think Kansas and Louisville will do battle in the Elite Eight, but I think the Jayhawks run will be a very tough run while I think the Cardinals will overtake a dinged-up Oregon squad. One thing that makes me get the nod to Louisville is that I think they can break any press Kansas throws on them. Plus, I never count out Rick Pitino. Ever.
SOUTH REGION
Teams: #1 North Carolina vs. #16 Texas Southern, #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Seton Hall, #5 Minnesota vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State, #4 Butler vs. #13 Winthrop, #6 Cincinnati vs. #11 Wake Forest/Kansas State, #3 UCLA vs. #14 Kent State, #7 Dayton vs. #10 Wichita State, #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Northern Kentucky
OUTLOOK: Many think this is the toughest region. I think it is the Midwest however. That said, there looks to be plenty of lower seeds that can REALLY do some damage in this region. We saw what Middle Tennessee State did last year to Michigan State, and honestly, they only got better this year. Minnesota needs to be on VERY high alert. Winthrop is another team that you cant sit back on in this region. And of course, you have your Wichita State there, hoping to exact revenge on Kentucky from years ago. Of course, what makes it all the interesting is you have 3 blue-blood schools (North Carolina, Kentucky, and UCLA), 2 teams who are religiously in the mix of the tournament (Cincinnati, Butler) and of course the team NOBODY should sleep on (Dayton). While it is a great region, there is a chance to see a couple of upsets in the making.
1ST UPSET PICK: #13 WINTHROP OVER #4 BUTLER: Butler's big achievement has been beating Villanova twice. However, just when you think Butler is good enough to do that, they turn around and crash, having stinkers to St. John's and Georgetown (nearly losing twice to the Hoyas mind you). Winthrop also is a program in the Big South that is a contender year in and year out. I think Winthrop has a great chance if this game is going to be a shoot-out. Not sure if Butler can handle that. But it is one of those games I flip-flopped on for a while actually.
2ND UPSET PICK: MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE ELITE EIGHT: Yes, you heard me. That means they beat Minnesota, Winthrop (I think the Blue Raiders would beat Butler regardless) and I do think they could beat North Carolina as I feel the Tar Heels are too shaky at times. I think as a whole people look down on the Conference USA especially after the likes of Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, and others split for the AAC or ACC. This will show the nation that Middle Tennessee can play with anybody. And I do think they can shoot the lights out of the ball, where it is a bad match for the Tar Heels.
TEAM THAT REALLY CAN MAKE SOME NOISE: CINCINNATI: The Bearcats defense is very tough and can frustrate anybody in the nation. And honestly, I think they are a VERY BAD MATCH for UCLA and Kentucky given how the offensive styles they play, and I don't think Lonzo Ball is going to be comfortable playing against the Bearcats at all if that game comes to fruition.
MY SOUTH REGION WINNER: CINCINNATI. The Bearcats defense will decide the games between them and UCLA as well as Kentucky. I don't think both those teams are accustomed to the defense Cincinnati plays. As for UNC, I think they are too streaky to just make it to the Final Four unscathed and has letdowns against teams especially that can shoot the ball (Duke anybody?). It is a bit of a surprising pick, but we've seen a team or two the last few years that nobody really has to get in the Final Four make it. This is my choice.
MY FINAL FOUR: VILLANOVA VS. ARIZONA, LOUISVILLE VS. CINCINNATI
I won't analyze on major hypotheticals with college basketball like I do with college football. However, I will just go into this:
For the War of the Wildcats, I think Arizona wins because of more of the fact they are probably stronger down low and the Final Four resides in Glendale. To them, that's home. I think it is enough to get them past the defending champions.
For the game of former Conference USA foes of Louisville and Cincinnati, I think it will be a physical fight throughout. But the Cardinals just have the depth and I don't think the Bearcats can match that up.
So the National Championship I have is Louisville vs. Arizona. Arizona's base will come out in full force and I think the offense is just too much for even Pitino to handle and the Wildcats can play some defense too. Arizona wins in a close one. Not a buzzer-beater, but a close one.
We may see a repeat of this in a few weeks, but instead of a conference championship, a national championship.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
PS-this goes against my original pick of Duke winning it all this year. I just find them too inconsistent and too "play when we feel like it" bit. It will hurt them in the tournament in some point.
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
