The Obstructed NFC Divisional Preview: Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Saving the best for last? This is probably the game everybody wants to see. The Packers, with their franchise stud in Aaron Rodgers and a team with a head full of steam going up against the Dallas Cowboys with their young guns of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and others, who have rolled to the NFC's best record in 2016 and many believe the Boys are back. You have the history between both teams and 9 Super Bowls between them and 15 Super Bowl appearances between them as well. These are two of the most storied NFL franchises around with strong fan bases. Of course, we have to hear Joe Buck call the game so there is that small blemish, but "mute" is always a great thing.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, 4:40, SUNDAY, FOX
GREEN BAY WINS IF:
The Packers pretty much beat the Giants on the Halftime Hail Mary.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY KEEP THE GAME CLOSE BY HALFTIME: If you look at Green Bay's run, you are noticing that Aaron Rodgers has covered a lot of holes the Packers team has, even on defense. If you look at their Week 17 win in Detroit and their Wild Card win against the Giants, both the Lions and Giants played Green Bay and Rodgers tough early on. However, they also blew major chances over and over by dropped passes that could have been big plays and/or touchdowns. When the second half arrived and the adjustments were made, Green Bay made both the Lions and Giants pay for this mistakes. If Dallas fails to capitalize on it like those teams did, Green Bay is going to sit pretty.
Prescott needs to be challenged with pressure.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2. GO AFTER DAK EARLY AND OFTEN: Prescott is playing his first playoff game. He has played poised all season, though he's had some slip-ups. The problem is though, you have to go past the offensive line of the Cowboys and that is a difficult task. I am not sure given Green Bay's woes, they are capable of doing that.
Elliott could really give Green Bay nightmares all Sunday.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
3. DO NOT LET ELLIOTT TAKE OVER: Ezekiel Elliott is a beast and might be the best running back for the future of the NFL and for him the future is now. Green Bay is middle of the pack defensively against the run, but if they let Elliott have a day, it will be doom for Green Bay and it will also keep Rodgers & Co. on the sideline, where Dallas wants them to be.
Montgomery is going to need to keep some pressure off of Rodgers with his running.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
4. TRY TO PUNCH DALLAS IN THE MOUTH WITH THE RUN GAME: Ty Montgomery and Aaron Ripkowski will have to go against Dallas's #1 run defense. They will have to punch them in the mouth with it so it can open up the passing game for Rodgers (as if he needs any more help).
Rodgers will have to manage the clock well enough to give his defense a rest.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
5. SUSTAIN LONG DRIVES: This might be a bit out of the box for me to say on a team that loves the big play, but on a defense where it is depleted, especially in the secondary, you are going to need them down the stretch for any key plays in the 4th quarter. If they are on the field longer than normal, Green Bay will be hurting late on the defense side. They will have to win that time of possession war as well.
DALLAS WINS IF:
Dez Bryant may be used a lot in the first half.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
1. GET OFF TO A NICE LEAD AND HAVE A DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD AT HALFTIME: I know that is easier said than done, but it does two things: 1) Puts the Packers behind the 8 ball and play catch-up as well as Dallas adjust earlier to Green Bay's adjustments and 2) Makes the Packers offense one-dimensional. And then Dallas can focus on the Packers passing game, which they need to do with as much focus as they can.
Prescott will have to play very smart with the football to make sure Rodgers doesn't make them pay.
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
2. THEY KEEP THE FOOTBALL: No turnovers and time of possession. Keep the depleted Green Bay defense out on the field as much as possible. If they get that lead early on and keep the ball away from Rodgers, in the 4th quarter, Green Bay will be out of gas so much not even Rodgers could bring them back from the dead.
Dallas will need to make key stops on Green Bay to keep them from having momentum.
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
3. STOP GREEN BAY ON THE DRIVE BEFORE AND AFTER HALFTIME: One pattern we see is Green Bay loves to score before halftime and then get the ball after halftime and score again. Dallas has to make a big stop on both of them because I think if Green Bay does that, they will have a lot of momentum and have more fluidity to their offense which could be very problematic in the second half against Dallas.
Rodgers has been poised as of late. But sometimes he can get flustered himself.
4. FRUSTRATE RODGERS: I don't necessarily mean rush after him or pressure him because he can escape better than any quarterback in the league. But get some hits on him as he throws the ball, and get some licks in on him. If Dallas does that, jumps out to an early lead and holds it most of the game, he can get visibly frustrated where he will take some ill-advised chances. Then that's when Dallas can really jump after him. It *could* be a blowout if that happens (doubtful, but it could).
MY PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers is the NFL's golden boy. Whatever he does, the media and Packer fans alike think he is the closest thing to Superman (maybe even better than Superman). The last few years when Green Bay made the playoffs, many banked the Packers on being the NFC representative, only to have lost the last two playoff games by TD in overtime and the previous two as the defenses couldn't stop Kaepernick and the 49ers. This whole "guarantee" he said of running the table was helped by favorable schedule (Seattle without Thomas in Lambeau, Houston in Lambeau, weakened Vikings and Bears squads, and an overachieving Detroit squad and New York at home). This is Green Bay's biggest challenge in this table run: a roadie in JerryWorld against the #1 team in the NFC all season. Had Green Bay's defense been much better and healthier, I would think the Packers have a chance. But I think with Dallas rested and with a formidable and a strongly balanced offense, not even Rodgers can neutralize Dallas. I think Dallas holds a lead the entire game and get off to a nice start, but I do think Rodgers gets the Packers back in the 4th quarter, and possibly the game ends on a Hail Mary, but I don't know if Rodgers can go 4 for 4 with that, can he? That said, I think Dallas is a better all-around team right now, which makes me give a nod to the Cowboys. COWBOYS 34, PACKERS 27
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
