The Obstructed NFL Playoff Team Rankings & Why They Can Win & Lose

So the playoffs are set and we are down from 32 teams to 12.  I will do a preview later of the Wild Card games and give my take on the previews.  It is an interesting take in my eyes because at least in the NFC there isn't a clear-cut favorite.  The AFC, unless the Patriots catch the flu before their game in 2 weeks, I don't know if I can see any AFC team winning it besides them.  But let's go for my Obstructed Ratings

1.  NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:  Why they'll win?  They have everything clicking.  Offense, defense, special teams.  People want to point the Pats defense is mediocre and rely too much on Brady.  To that I say, yes, without Brady, no Super Bowls in New England. 8th in total defense, top 5 in rushing defense, and QB's had an 85.4 rating against the defense.  The Pats have Brady and believe it or not nearly 1,900 rushing yards this season led by TD maker LeGarrette Blount (as I like to call him, the exclamation point for the Patriots).  Why they won't win?  "Hey, look, Eli!" All kidding aside, the Patriots were 21st against the pass this season.  May not be very favorable if they see the Steelers in the AFC Championship game though given that Roethlisberger can pass it with Brown & Co.

2. ATLANTA FALCONS:  Why they'll win?  That offense is one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history and Matt Ryan finally looks like an MVP.  That said, you can't sit back against the run with Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman.  And the defense is playing much better since the beginning of the year even without Desmond Trufant.  And with the Giants and Packers getting all the headlines of being the hottest teams in the NFL, the Falcons have carved up a nice run themselves.  Why they won't win?  While the defense has made strides down the stretch, they are still young and have those growing pains.  They have been unable to close out 4th quarters in a few games this year, that could have meant a #1 seed (losses to Seattle and San Diego stick out the most).  They also gave up the 4th most passing yards this season which is a big concern if they face a team like Green Bay.   And of course, the whole playoff albatross for Ryan.

3.  DALLAS COWBOYS:  Why they'll win?  Ezekiel Elliott has taken the league by storm and Dak Prescott plays like a veteran QB and he's only a rookie.  The passing game is clicking and even if Dak were to get dinged up, Tony Romo is off the bench and ready to go.  The defense is solid especially against the run, which could help them if they face Atlanta or Seattle in the NFC Championship  Why they won't win?  "Hey look, Eli!"  All kidding aside on that too, the Cowboys have a rookie QB so we don't know what the mindset will be for him.  Add on they have their issues against the pass, which could be costly if they face the Giants or Green Bay in the 2nd round.

4.  PITTSBURGH STEELERS:  Why they'll win?  How often in the past have we said Pittsburgh's offense is the reason why they're in the playoffs?  But it is true.  The Steelers rank in the top 10 in passing and 14th in rushing (probably higher had Bell not been suspended).  And the thing is, Ben Roethlisberger knows how to win playoff games.  Why they won't win?  The defense is merely average.  Not good, not bad.  Average.  Plus, Roehtlisberger's albatross and really the Steelers albatross has been the Patriots.  I can see Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship, but I don't see them getting through New England with an average defense.

5.  NEW YORK GIANTS:  Why they'll win?  Say what you will on Eli, but when the games turn to January he plays smart football.  Notice I didn't say "great," but smart.  And I think that is what separates players in postseason.  The Giants are also riding a nice run and the defense is getting better week by week and the secondary is a vastly underrated one.  They're going to be a tough out again.  Why they won't win?  That rushing attack, or lack thereof.  Could be costly if they are holding a slim lead late in a game, whether that's in Green Bay, Dallas, or Atlanta.  

6.  GREEN BAY PACKERS:  Why they'll win?  The hot streak they are on and sometimes that's what you need.  Rodgers is playing lights out football and they are getting contributions from offensive players all over. Why they won't win?  The secondary is depleted, the defense is sketchy, the running game is a mess, and their hot streak was from a favorable schedule (Seattle & Houston at home while facing the Bears and Vikings, plus an overachieving Detroit squad).  Sooner or later the talent that Green Bay faces, not even Rodgers will overcome it.

7.  KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:  Why they'll win?  Opportunistic plays, big plays, Tyreek HIll, and they grind it out for 60 minutes.  Why they won't win?  I know they are the #2 seed, but nothing stands out in terms of positive play.  Passing is iffy, running is average.  Offense is average, defense is average (and poor against the run), and sometimes you can't get that big play, and you're doomed.  If Hill doesn't have a big play, it's over for Kansas City.  Plus, sometimes they get too happy with themselves with leads late.  See the Tennessee game.

8.  SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Why they'll win?  Russell Wilson just finds ways to win.  Similar to Eli in that regards, plus, they have a good pass rush.  Why they won't win?  The Seahawks offense can be stagnant at times and has been that way, even since the Super Bowl year.  The defense without Earl Thomas looks human and teams have hit the Seahawks in the Legion of Boom secondary more than a few times.  Plus, they have some road woes to deal with (a blowout loss in Green Bay????).  Not good if the Seahawks have a date in Atlanta in 2 weeks.

9.  MIAMI DOLPHINS:  Why they'll win?  They have playmakers and Jay Ajayi has probably been the best back not named Ezekiel Elliott this season.  The defense is solid and physical can can give teams fits.  Why they won't win?  With or without Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have issues at the QB spot.  You can't win if you have struggles at QB.  And if the Dolphins are losing, you wonder if the defense loses their composure a bit (see Ndamukong Suh against the Patriots).  And Miami has a lot of problems stopping the run.  That is alarming going into Pittsburgh.

10. HOUSTON TEXANS: Why they'll win?  Houston has the #1 defense in the NFL, even without JJ Watt in the lineup.  And Lamar Miller has been their MVP on the ground game.  Why they won't win?  Brock Osweiler???????  The passing game is anemic at best.  They might sneak a win against a Carr-less Raiders team, but if they go into New England, it is over.  

11.  DETROIT LIONS:  Why they'll win?  They can hang around for 4 quarters, home or road.  Why they won't win?  Offense is inconsistent,  the run game is anemic, and the defense is merely average at best.  If not for Stafford, Detroit is a 3-13 squad.  They played over their heads this season.

12.  OAKLAND RAIDERS: Why they'll win?  They have guys like Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.  The defense has its moments of being dominant.  Why they won't win?  Unless Carr is magically healed, the Raiders will not win against the #1 defense with Matt McGloin or Connor Cook.  They won't get it to Crabtree or Cooper, or whoever.  It is not going to happen.  

-Fan in the Obstructed Seat

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