The Obstructed Preview For the NCAA Basketball Championship
We have arrived to the point of the season. Over 350 teams started and now two are there. The two teams? Similar but different paths. Both were #1 seeds (2 of the last 3 years that has happened). Both were highly thought of all year and have stars around and not really either school is a "one-and-done school." Both teams schedule tough out-of-conference games in November and December every year to get a test of what to expect around the nation. Probably where the similarities end.
Gonzaga was part of the year and have one lone blemish to their amazing record. North Carolina was never ranked #1 overall at any point of the season, but likely got a #1 seed for having a great record in the ACC, one of the toughest conferences in the nation. Gonzaga did not benefit as they were in the West Coast Conference, a mid-major one as it is really the Zags and the St. Mary's Gaels (and BYU, the team who actually upended Gonzaga in the Kennel). North Carolina is pretty much a Final Four regular while this is the first time Gonzaga has even been into the Final Four (despite having a nice tournament runs year after year).
So will any of this play into the national championship? Who knows?
So who has the advantage? Or how will the teams win?
GONZAGA WINS IF
1. Karnowski, Williams, and Collins stay out of foul trouble. Even when the Zags have been winning in this tournament, they have a knack of being unable to put teams away. They had difficulty with Northwestern and then again against South Carolina. Largely because both the Zags big men had rode the pine for foul trouble. Getting away with it against Northwestern and South Carolina is one thing. Trying to do it against the #1 rebounding team in the nation is entirely different.
2. Josh Perkins and Jordan Mathews step up. Had Mathews didn't step up, the Zags are at home as we speak. Large in part because Josh Perkins (foul trouble; fouled out) could not stay on the floor and was not overly efficient when he was.
3. Win the turnover war. North Carolina pretty much dominated on a lot of the stats last night against Oregon. That said, the game was closer than what it should have been. If Gonzaga wins the turnover war, it will be very hard for North Carolina to do what they want to and just attack like crazy.
4. Win the paint. Goes with the rebounds. Meeks vs. Karnowski is going to be must-see TV, but if Gonzaga wins this game, Karnowski has to beat Meeks down low especially, which means stay out of foul trouble, out-work Meeks, and outplay Meeks.
NORTH CAROLINA WINS IF
1. They get Karnowski in foul trouble. Yeah, the Zags still have post guys, especially on the defensive end, but Williams and Collins have shown jitters and over-think on the offensive side. Karnowski is a tank who knows no fear. It will be interesting to see how Kennedy Meeks goes up against him. If Karnowski isn't there, Meeks could have a bigger game than what he had against Oregon.
2. Pinson and Jackson slow down Williams-Goss. They are going to be the ones dealing with him. So if Carolina has no answers in the game, it is going to be a major issue.
3. Berry will need to be more up-tempo to get Gonzaga off balanced. I think if North Carolina plays an up-tempo game throughout, it will spell problems for Gonzaga this whole game and it will get their big men running, which means it could open the floor for easy layups and twos.
4. Stay out of foul trouble themselves. The Heels have avoided any foul issues in this tournament to this point and have benefited from other teams (Kentucky) having their stars ride the pine. The issue is while the starting 5 for UNC is top-heavy, there are still questions remaining on the bench. So any kind of foul trouble for North Carolina and it may be big trouble.
MY OBSTRUCTED TAKE: Given how I crashed and burned in this tournament with my brackets and trying to figure out who will win each weekend, I am not going to give a kiss of death to either team. I like both teams really (actually when it comes to college basketball, unless you're Kansas, UConn, Duke, and now Syracuse) so I will be happy to see either one cut the nets down. But I am also thinking it may be down to the last shot (something North Carolina fans probably don't want to re-live). I can see Gonzaga winning this and I can see North Carolina winning this. My gut does lean towards one of the teams, but again, my gut has been wrong in the tournament.
I will leave the score at 75-73
Fan in the Obstructed Seat
