The Obstructed Super Bowl LI Preview: New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
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It's here. After nearly 6 months of football, from pre-season to the regular season to the playoffs until now. It has finally arrived.
The Patriots, favored to get to the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season enter the Super Bowl with the most appearances now (9) and looking to tie the Cowboys and 49ers for the 2nd most Super Bowl wins (5) and all in one era really (The Brady & Belicheck Era).
On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons weren't even considered as a PLAYOFF favorite in 2016 and some had them finishing in dead last in the NFC South (admittedly, I had them third large in part of a young, inexperienced defense). But with an insanely strong offense and a young, inexperienced defense that has played VERY strong down the stretch, Atlanta shredded teams left & right en route to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1998 when the Dirty Birds roamed the Georgia Dome. While New England is favored, a good number of experts have believed this will be a very tough game for the Patriots to get #5.
The storylines haven't been much, much to the dismay of Boston media who had hoped to see the Patriots get Dallas, Green Bay, the Giants, or even Seattle as it would have had storylines galore as opposed to Atlanta, where the Falcons until the last 8 years haven't been much in the way of NFL's relevancy. But it is interesting to see that a few of the Patriots alums (so to speak) have gained success in running a franchise to the Super Bowl with the Falcons (Scott Pioli & Thomas Dimitroff have been in charge for a while in Atlanta) while Dan Quinn gets another crack at the Patriots in the Super Bowl after 2 years ago being the Seahawks defensive coordinator in the classic game that New England won. Both sides have said the right things about each other and given Atlanta's New England ties, the Falcons have been very respectful of everything that New England has done throughout this amazing run by the Patriots. So really, there hasn't been animosity showing on either side. So what will it take for both teams to win?
NEW ENGLAND WINS IF:
Brady will have to keep Atlanta's defense off balance all game.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY DICTATE THE PACE OF THE GAME: It is going to be simple for both teams really. Whoever controls the pace of the game in terms of offense will win the game. But the Patriots will have to do that the ENTIRE game as even Seattle tried doing it in the Divisional playoff against the Falcons and it failed badly.
It could be a long game if the Patriots can't stop Freeman and Coleman.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
2. THE FREEMAN/COLEMAN TANDEM DOES NOT TAKE OVER: While Atlanta's passing game is top notch and in many ways can draw parallels to New England in most aspects, if you take out the backfield of Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman you can really zero in on the Atlanta passing game and take chances putting major pressure on Ryan. If they do not, Atlanta can dictate this game from beginning to end.
Edelman & Co need to either have a lead or be close in the 4th.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
3. THEY EITHER HAVE A LEAD OR REMAIN WITHIN 10 POINTS IN THE 4TH QUARTER: While the Falcons defense has played better as the season has gone on, the Patriots could really sting them in the 4th if Atlanta does not have a big lead. The defense of Atlanta hasn't been truly challenged to make a big stop since honestly San Diego, where they blew a 10 point lead...........at home. But it is a long time ago.
Blount is making it impossible to stop New England's offense.
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
4. BLOUNT HAS A BIG DAY: The Falcons run defense is strong. And if the run game is taken out, the Falcons can zero in on New England's wide receivers where it could lead to actual problems for the Patriots. More on that in a few.
Even Tom Brady needs time to throw the ball and the Patriots will have to protect him.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
5. BRADY IS PROTECTED: Atlanta has given Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers all sorts of problems in the playoffs this year in part because they have not given them time to throw the ball like they have been. The times Brady has shown difficulty in passing is when teams have gotten in his face. If the Patriots give Brady time, Atlanta will have major issues in the Super Bowl.
ATLANTA WINS IF:
Falcons will have to keep New England's offense on the sideline as much as possible.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
1. THEY USE LONG DRIVES: Atlanta and New England both can beat teams in so many ways with their offenses. They can strike fast or they can go methodical and frustrate defenses. I can see Atlanta trying to use this way to keep Brady and Co. off the field as much as possible.
New England has difficulties at times matching up against secondaries that are physical.
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
2. THE DEFENSE PLAYS PHYSICAL ON THE RECEIVERS: The lone two teams that have beaten the Patriots-Buffalo and Seattle, played very physical agianst them. Atlanta's defense, mostly an a lot of times will be very physical and frustrate opposing offenses like they did against the Seahawks and Packers and frustrate them. If Blount is not a factor, this will be a huge advantage for the Falcons.
Getting to Brady isn't easy at all.
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
3. THE DEFENSE GETS TO BRADY: Again, the defense did not let Rodgers and Wilson get comfortable in the playoff games. If the Falcons get to him on more than a few occasions, you could see Atlanta get a few chances for turnovers.
Getting out to big, early leads has been Atlanta's formula of success down the stretch.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
4. THEY JUMP OUT TO AN EARLY LEAD: The formula has been their success for the last part of the season. If Atlanta gets a 10-14 point lead at halftime, they can really force the envelope and take a nice 4th quarter lead, which could spell big problems for the Patriots.
Atlanta's young defense has played near perfect in this run for the Falcons
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
5. THEY PLAY MISTAKE-FREE FOOTBALL: Numerous Falcons players are experiencing their first Super Bowl and numerous Falcons players especially on the defensive side are 2nd year players or younger. If they get caught up in the moment, there will be massive problems and Brady the last QB you want to face because he will feed off of big mistakes. This may be the biggest factor of the game right here.
PREDICTION: Wow. I honestly could not decide who wins this really. Both teams on the offensive side is evenly matched and while I think New England has the better defense, Atlanta's defense has kept on improving over the time. So I can see either side winning it. I think everybody that is outside of Atlanta is banking on another Patriots victory though I think they'd prefer to see the upstart Falcons. Of course, I am biased since I love the Falcons, BUT I guess this is how I see it: I think both sides get off to a bit of a sluggish start in the first quarter before the offenses open up in the second with Atlanta taking charge. I think it remains close in the second half, but Atlanta finds a way to make a big play on defense and stymies the Patriots on a drive that will decide the outcome. It goes to be a seesaw before Ryan makes a Matty Ice comeback late and steal it away from New England as Atlanta hoists their first Super Bowl trophy. FALCONS 34, PATRIOTS 31
-Fan in the Obstructed Seat
