The Too Early College Playoff Predictions/Preview

Because of Sportsblog's upcoming temporary shutdown to the site, I went ahead and did this now instead of later because the shutdown seems to go for a while.  That said, I figured today would be a good day as any to do it.  Why they're doing it at the height of the football season (both pro & college) is beyond me.  But hey, if they do it quick, it might not be so bad.  So today we will look at the two semi finals (and I pray that this site will be ready by the national championship game).  

So let's begin.  

# 4 WASHINGTON VS. #1 ALABAMA, CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL, 3:00, ESPN:  Many have projected this game to be a possible waxing, similar to the one Alabama handed Michigan State last year.  Of course, if you live in Washington, you're thinking "Alabama won't know what hit them" and if you're Alabama, you're saying, "yeah, you lost by 13 to a team who Alabama beat by 46, so what in your right mind think that Alabama will lose to Washington?"  The major storyline to me in this is the whole "PAC-12 vs. Alabama/SEC" bit that has been spewing for the last few years, mostly through Oregon.  We've heard PAC-12 fans and backers say that the SEC is overrated and couldn't handle the speed of the PAC-12.  Honestly, that argument doesn't fly given how Alabama throttled USC to start the season and even Texas A&M put down UCLA.  So............does Washington have a legit chance to shock the world?  Sure.  But the odds are not great at all.

The Huskies steamrolled early on and had a huge win in Utah that really gave hope by many.  However, the loss to USC made people wonder if they were actually the best team in the PAC-12 (given the Trojans run with Sam Darnold) and Jake Browning went from Heisman Trophy contender to not even making it to New York City for the presentation.  That is a possible sign of a problem as 3 of the final 4 games Browning was very human in (save the Washington State game).  And anytime Alabama loses, it is because the quarterback for the opposing team plays lights out football.  So what does Washington need to do to have a chance to beat Alabama?

Ole Miss scored 24 points on Alabama in the 1st half. It was Bama's toughest game in 2016 so far.
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

1.  JUMP AHEAD FAST AND BY A LOT:  Alabama's struggles this year is the first quarter.  USC, Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn, and Florida were major indicators of this.  However, only Ole Miss jumped ahead big, largely because of their offense.  It wasn't until Alabama rolled in the 2nd half that changed the outcome and it is the 2nd half that Bama does their devastation.  But USC, LSU, Auburn, and Florida all failed to capitalize on big plays, turnovers, etc. and you HAVE to score touchdowns.

USC played with fire for the first quarter, but it burned out and fast afterward against Alabama.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

2.  PLAY CONTROLLED FOR ALL 4 QUARTERS:  One thing I laugh at this season was seeing USC celebrate after being up 3-0 on Alabama like they just won the national championship.  And then again when Florida was up 7-0 on Alabama in the SEC championship and even Auburn got too happy with themselves early.  Ironically, that is a lot of energy they're burning celebrating.  And when Alabama jumps ahead, those teams go "uh-oh, here they come!"   You have to play Bama knowing they will be in there for all four quarters and even the slightest psychological edge you give Bama opens floodgates. That 7-0 lead or 3-0 lead turns into a 28-3 deficit and fast.  And Alabama isn't playing top notch football.

Fitzpatrick's Pick Six changed the whole game in the SEC Championship
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

3.  CAPITALIZE ON TURNOVERS & DON'T LET BAMA CAPITALIZE TURNOVERS:  While Browning has slipped in the past few weeks, Jalen Hurts for Alabama hasn't been much better down the stretch, making numerous turnovers.  However, Auburn, LSU, and Florida especially have failed to do anything about the turnover issues.  And that is a sign of how great Alabama's defense is.  It doesn't hurt the team.  On the other side, Alabama gets a turnover, it seems like EVERY TIME they make you pay.  

For Alabama?

The Trojans made Browning uncomfortable all game in the Huskies lone loss. Browning hasn't been the same since.
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

1.  KEEP BROWNING UNCOMFORTABLE:  Browning has struggled lately.  That said, it is when the quarterbacks play well against Alabama that give Alabama nightmares.  Tebow, Cam, Manziel, Kelly, Watson, and Cardale Jones have all played huge against Alabama and those are the losses Bama has (or has given Alabama a strong game).  It is well documented.

Alabama's jump on Tennessee broke the Vols' back and was over by halftime.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

2.  JUMP OUT EARLY:  Anytime Bama has a lead on a team, they pretty much keep it and the opposing team is broken.  Only Texas A&M had any lead on Alabama when they trailed.  If Washington comes out guns ablaze and Bama gets a 14-0 lead early on, the game might be over by then, especially with a young group of Huskies.  

OBSTRUCTED PREDICTION:  Alabama has pretty much a home game at the Georgia Dome (and probably could be renamed the Alabama Dome given they have won 10 of the last 11 games they have played there) and is a stone's throw away from Tuscaloosa in SEC Country while Washington has to go cross-country.  Not good on that aspect.  But Chris Petersen is a great coach and has won at the Georgia Dome (beating Georgia of all teams in 2011) himself.  That said, while the Huskies have talent, it is the experience and the far better talent Alabama has on both sides of the ball.  And I do wonder if the Huskies have the same amount of strength on the lines to stop the likes of Jonathan Allen, Tim Williams, etc.  And I think this is uncharted territory for Washington.  Do I think the first half will be a game?  Yes, partly because it is uncharted territory for Hurts as well.  For the other part however, Alabama should get cooking in the second half and open the game up to which Washington will have no answer.  MY PREDICTION:  ALABAMA 38, WASHINGTON 14

#3 OHIO STATE VS. #2 CLEMSON, FIESTA BOWL, 7:00, ESPN:  The rematch of the 2013 Orange Bowl and two of the top powers in college football over the past 4 seasons.  The Tigers and Buckeyes are similar in many ways this year, of having moments where they look like they can beat anybody, including Alabama, or playing down to anybody such as the likes of Northwestern and Michigan State (if you're Ohio State) or Troy & NC State (if you're Clemson) and have some holes in certain spots.  So, Ohio State is in somewhat controversially as they are not the Big Ten champ and lost to the Big Ten champ in Penn State.  They might be playing with that same head of steam like they did in 2014 where many didn't believe they belonged in the playoff, but ended up winning the whole thing.  Clemson, obviously feels like they have the real Heisman Trophy winner in Deshaun Watson and they will be playing ticked as well so we will have two teams with high emotions going at it.  So from that storyline, it is intriguing.  Others will look at it is to see which team has possibly the best shot to beat Alabama in the national championship (assuming Bama handles Washington).  

The thing is, both teams are semi-unpredictable.  They can look like beasts and just destroy teams or play down to opposing teams' levels and either let them hang around too much or lose.  This game is somewhat of a too close to call.  Most fans think it will be a Clemson waxing victory, but I don't see that happening.

WHAT CLEMSON NEEDS TO DO TO BEAT OHIO STATE:

When Clemson attacks early, it is mostly game over for opposing teams.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

1.  JUMP EARLY:  Ohio State has not been challenged this season to the point of having teams get off to a fast start on them.  Penn State didn't.  Michigan didn't.  But the Tigers NEED to, given that they love those comfortable leads.  Whenever the Tigers don't, they really force things and struggle (Pitt, NC State, Troy, etc.).  So for Clemson an early jump is a must.

Clemson's woes this year has been the turnovers.
Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

2.  PROTECT THE BALL:  I mentioned Troy & Auburn were Watson's key reasons why the he didn't hoist up the Heisman while Lamar Jackson did.  But Watson has also had an issue protecting the ball in key situations, which could have been a factor (and was in the Pitt loss).  Ohio State, similar to Alabama, makes teams pay for mistakes (see the Michigan game).  If the Tigers turn the ball over 2 or 3 times, then Ohio State is going to be in the driver's seat.  

Barrett has not been as poised as he was in 2014 largely because teams have gotten in his face.
Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

3.  MAKE JT BARRETT UNCOMFORTABLE:  When JT Barrett has any time to throw, he looks like a Heisman candidate.  But three games stick out and similar to Watson, might have been the three games to keep Barrett in New York City: Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan.   Those three made life miserable for Barrett and Ohio State nearly lost all 3.  But the problem is, Clemson's defense is a mess and has been a mess down the stretch (don't give me the well, they gave up only 20 total points to Wake Forest and South Carolina; both those schools have major offensive issues).  But if they let Barrett do whatever, Clemson doesn't have a chance.

Dabo has got to coach the best game he's ever coached to beat Ohio State.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

4.  PLAY POISED, FOCUSED, AND SMART:  One thing in Watson's struggles early was that it felt like teams were just going to let Clemson win and Watson was playing nonchalant.  He's been far better since the beginning of the year, but I'm starting to notice a bit of an ego complex to Watson similar to what we see with Cam Newton (as Watson has been compared to Cam lately).  If Ohio State gets a few big plays on Watson (sacks and/or interceptions), what will be his mentality?  Will he stay composed?  Will he force plays, or will he clock out?  It is all possible.  Also, if the game is on the line, make the smart calls to win the game.  Some of Dabo's in-game calls that Clemson had close calls by (Auburn, NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech, and even Florida State) have been head-scratchers at times.  That can't happen against Meyer.  Ask Harbaugh.

WHAT OHIO STATE NEEDS TO DO TO BEAT CLEMSON:

The Buckeyes CRUSHED Nebraska because they never took the pedal off the gas. They have to do that against Clemson.
Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

1.  KEEP ATTACKING:  Yes, jumping early is key as well, but Ohio State in their close-call games, failed to keep attacking their opponents when they were down.  You cannot let Clemson get any chance to get back if the Buckeyes jump out to a lead.  

Despite the win over Virginia Tech, the Hokies controlled the line against the Tigers.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

2.  BULLY ON THE LINES:  Ohio State has to keep Clemson's lines off-guard all game.  When Clemson has struggled is because the lines, especially the defensive line hasn't done much.  Barrett can have a field day on Clemson's defense, which will be problematic for the Tigers.

Watson's issues with being snubbed for the Heisman could play into Ohio State's hands.
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

3.  GET WATSON FRUSTRATED IF POSSIBLE:  Watson isn't easily rattled, but he seems pretty bent on not winning the Heisman.  Good news and bad news for all involved.  He's that bent and tries to force issues, advantage Ohio State.  The Buckeyes can attack him, hit him hard, and see if he gets more frustrated to where you take him out and zero in on Gallman.

If Gallman is stopped, Clemson will be in some trouble.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

4.  STOP GALLMAN:  Wayne Gallman is a beast.  Teams who think if they slow down Watson and they win forget Gallman is one of the best running backs in college football.  But whenever Watson is struggling, it is Gallman who comes through.  Ohio State has to keep an eye out on this guy all the time.  

OBSTRUCTED PREDICTION:  I said at the beginning of the year Clemson vs. Alabama was the national championship game this year with the Tigers winning.  How it has played out I cannot see the Tigers getting there.  Sorry, but I can't.  Right now, Clemson still has the mentality that the national championship will be placed on their doorstep with a shiny red bow given how they have played for a good chunk of the season.  Ohio State is NOT the team they could just expect to hand over a win to the Tigers.  I also think Watson's ego might end up getting the best of him in this game.  If the Buckeyes make a few big plays on defense, I think it might hurt Clemson and Ohio State will control this game from beginning to end.  But Clemson always finds a way it seems, even when they are playing badly, even to good teams.  That said, I think Ohio State is a better overall squad from top to bottom than Clemson and the Tigers will have no answer on defense for Barrett and the Buckeyes.  MY PREDICTION:  OHIO STATE 45, CLEMSON 38

-Fan in the Obstructed Seat

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