NCAA and NFL Best Bests Recap for Week 7/6 4-1-1!! +5 Units
What a weekend! 4-1-1 for the weekend, +5 units! ....not bad! The quagmire in Oakland limited the Raiders more than I thought it would. From twitter...to Lindz54, MikeA2204, CraigZ....you are welcome! Hope you had fun in Vegas!
NCAA FOOTBALL
Alabama - 12 @ Tennessee (2 Unit Game!!) Winner!!!!!!!!!
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson after laying 17 points with Houston and taking it on the chin. This line opened at 9 hit 13.5 and is now at 12. If not for a major comeback by Tennessee last week and getting the game to OT vs. Texas A&M, they were looking a 21 point loss in the face and this is a 17 to 19 point line. The stats of this game is this...Tennessee allows 91% scoring in the redzone and Alabama only allows 31.3% of 3rd down conversions. The other aspect to look at is can Tennessee's front block Alabama's front 7. What does that spell....Alabama might hit the mid-40's while Tennessee might not hit 20. Pretty easy one in my eyes. Tennessee is notorious for starting out slow and if they do that in this game.....well.....ask USC what happens. Bet 2 units on this one. BAMA in a ROUT... Alabama 45 Tennessee 17
Bama came out and dictated the play from the very beginning of the game and was in control the whole way. All the people that really thought UT had a shot at this one...Vegas thanks you for the money!
Duke +35.5 @ Louisville (FRIDAY GAME!!) WINNER!!!!
So I can get Duke on 6 possessions if you count the hook against a Louisville defense that frankly is not a world beating defense? Sold! Look David Cutcliffe is a great offensive minded coach (see Peyton Manning) and Duke, while only 3-3 this year, has established a solid program. This line is a little over-hype on Louisville taking out frustration on Duke from the Clemson game and Vegas not thinking too much of Duke football...which I get that part. Don't forget, Duke went to South Bend and beat Notre Dame 38-35 as a 19.5 point dog. Louisville is 3-1-1 ATS this year, Duke is 3-3...it is a wash. Take the points and watch Louisville (the most hyped up team in years) win...but by something like 25. Duke covers, but Louisville wins 49-24.
Duke had a shot to win this thing out right! Sans a couple of weird calls by the refs, this was a 14-14 game. Louisville to me is over-hyped and if I can get this number again against them, I am taking!
Colorado State +28.5 @ Boise State WINNER!!!!!!!
Another line that is too much hype on one team. Make no mistake, Boise State is good. They have about an 87% chance to run the table, be 12-0 and throw a conversation their way come playoff time. But while they are good, they are not the world beating team that this line shows. That and Colorado State has enough athletes to play this one decent. This line has dropped from 31.5 to 28.5 on Friday morning. That is a lot of movement to CSU. Neither team is great on 3rd down defense and neither is great on offense converting on 3rd down. Also, Boise allows 8.1 yards per pass which is right in the wheel house of the Rams. I will take the 31.5. Boise wins but CSU covers. Boise 38 Colorado State 21.
Even without the rally at the end, CSU was in good shape to cover this one. Boise is good, but they are not world beaters. Good Win!!
NFL
New England -9 vs. Cincinnati WINNER!!!!!!!!!!
Do not over think this one. Yes Cincinnati has a good team and yes they can beat anyone on any Sunday.....except this Sunday. Did you not see what Tom Brady did last week? Just over 400 yards passing and looked like he had played the four previous weeks. This week he will be going against a team that got torched by Tony Romo...........wait.......I mean Dak Prescott. New England defensively is a bit underrated in my opinion and this one could get out of hand early. I will lay the 9 and go with New England 35 Cincinnati 20.
To all the Tom Brady detractors, the man is still good. Cincy is teetering with a collapse and New England showed that without a doubt they are the class of the AFC.
Detroit -3 -120 vs. Los Angeles PUSH.
To start the year, Los Angeles has been a great story. My wife and I were in LA last week and I will be the first to tell you that LA people are great. They were pleasant to talk to, did not mind if you asked them a question, and they showed manners. But as nice as they were, Buffalo exposed the 3-1 start they had. Todd Gurley is only getting 2.7 yards per carry and Case Keenum is still your QB. Not good. The Lions fought for a big win vs. Philly last weekend (thank you Ryan Matthews) and have enough speed to chew up the Rams on offense. I see Detroit getting up in this one 14-0 or so, then Keenum having to start making a play. No way...sorry for the rhyme there. I will lay the three points for a Detroit victory. Detroit 27 LA 16.
If Detroit plays ANY defense in this one we are counting more money. Oh well....did not lose money, so that is ok.
Oakland/Kansas City OVER 46.5 LOSS!!!
To say both these teams are bad against the pass is an understatement. Oakland is dead last vs. the pass and while Kansas City is 8th, they had the week off last week, so no 5th game. If you put a 250 yard game on KC in a mythical 5th game from last weekend, KC is sitting 17th. This also is a huge game for both. An Oakland win and they start to gain a foot hold on the division. KC needs this one and suddenly you could have a 3 way tie in the West. Andy Reid has shown in the past, the bigger the game, the more he opens the play book. The game is in Oakland, but I like Kansas City to win. That is not the bet. Take the OVER as this should go Kansas City 34 Oakland 28.
I knew the rain was coming, so thank you to all the pseudo weather people that reminded me. The problem was Oakland could not get anything going on the ground, KC did. Really felt good, but if you one them all, eh....nevermind.
