Superbowl 2017 Predictions, Patriots, Falcons
Vegas has The Patriots winning by a field goal. The over under is 58. I'll take The Pats, score of 35-24. Here's why.
Tom Brady
Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
As far as Superbowls go there hasn't been too many shootouts. Whether it's nerves, defenses playing hard, teams playing not to make a mistake or whatever Superbowls don't tend to be shootouts. Between Tom Brady and Matt Ryan a shootout seems inevitable, but it won't happen. Why?
With both offenses being so good (albeit Atlanta's is slightly better) both teams are going to try and run the ball. Both teams run the ball differently. New England doesn't run the ball that often, but what they do is something I call aerial running. Short passes to receivers. You can call it dink and dunk, whatever I call it aerial running. I see New England playing a ton of Dion Lewis in the first half. The Patriots will run Lewis out of the backfield, or hit him out of the backfield with a mismatch on some of Atlanta's linebackers.
Everyone is talking about how fast Atlanta's defense is, how young they are, and how they're a bit inexperienced. While speed is great, New England is one of the best teams in the league at exposing your weaknesses. Look for draws, misdirection plays, screens and Dion Lewis out of the backfield to slow down that Atlanta defense.
Devonta Freeman
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
As far as Atlanta's offense goes I a lot of Tevin Colemand and Devonta Freeman. The Patriots game plan will be double teaming Julio Jones, rushing three, and dropping back into coverage. Essentially, they'll be daring Atlanta to run the whole game. If Atlanta's smart, they will run, chew up the clock and keep the game close. Bill Belichick Jedi-mindtricks teams into becoming impatient. He wants you to throw the ball. Teams get impatient grabbing three or four yards and having an imbalanced game plan. If Atlanta can keep it close, stay patient and work Freemand and Coleman out of the backfield either via runs or short passes they'll have a chance in this game.
Bill Belichick
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Of course based on my prediction I don't think that'll happen. I think New England will put up points and Atlanta will abandon the run far too often in an attempt to keep up with Brady and Co. I see New England's defense as being much better than Atlanta's defense. I see Atlanta's offense being slightly better than New England's offense. But that advantage is slight. We know New England is battle tested, they have the better QB, and the better head coach. All that being said, let's look at some of the Prop Bets and see what you shoud gamble on.
Kyle Shanahan, O - Coordinator for the Falcons
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
These bets are taken straight from Westgame Las Vegas Superbook and Bovada.lv. All of these bets are bets I'm willing to put my own money on.
1. How many times will Trump be said on TV during broadcast? The over under is 1 1/2. I'll take the over. Trump tweets often and is a known fan of The Patriots, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The media has been peppering Brady and Belichick on their relationships with Trump. It'll come up here and there, especially if Trump tweets during the game, which I think he will. (Trump will probably see this bet, put money on it, and purposely tweet just so he can make money on it.)
Donald Trump
Jasper Colt-USA TODAY
2. First touchdown scorer. Dion Lewis at 12/1 odds I like it. Lewis returns kicks, catches passes out of the backfield, and runs the ball. What's not to like? 12/1 odds? If you miss it won't be too bad of a loss.
Dion Lewis
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
3. Over under weight of the heaviest player to score a TD: 249.5lbs. I think LaGarrett Blount scores a touchdown. Therefore I'm taking the over.
Hefty Blount
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
4. Over under 4 or more different Patriots rush the ball. I'll take the over here. Tom Brady, LaGarrett Blount, Dion Lewis and all we need is one James White run (which Brady may do since he makes numerous adjustments at the line) or a reverse/end around by Julian Edelman, or even Martellus Bennett.
James White
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
5. Odds to have the most receiving yards. Julian Edelman at 5/1. I know Julio Jones is alive. But I think The Patriot game plan is to let Julio catch little stuff underneath and tackle him. Brady trusts Edelman and lost in the wake of Chris Hogan's breakout is Edelman's steady production.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
6. Lastly, the over under for Gronkowski being mentioned in the broadcast is three. I'll take the over with confidence. You figure one is, "Well their offense just kept on rolling with Gronkowski". Two is when Martellus Bennett comes up short running a seam route down the middle and Troy Aikman will say, "I bet Brady misses Gronkowksi right now". Three is when The Patriots are in the red zone and Joel Buck will say, "They really miss the big body target of Gronkowksi in the end zone right now". Lastly, Gronk is expected to be sitting in the luxury box with Robert Kraft. You know every time the Patriots score, Gronk will be dancing up in the box. The contrast of Gronk dancing and Kraft golf clapping will be too juicy for TV producers to ignore. Plus, deflate-gate will be talked about and they'll cut up to the box to show Kraft, and maybe Gronk is in the picture and gets a bonus mention.
