"The Stack" 3-18-17

USC does it again. The Trojans were trailing by double digits in the second half against SMU and found a way to win 66-65 on a go-ahead three pointer with some 20 seconds remaining. It is the sixth straight year since the play-in games or "First Four" started that one of the teams in those games have gone on to win at least one NCAA Tournament game.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas Jaylen Barford was the recipient of a terrible flagrant one call that helped Arkansas put Seton Hall away 77-71. It is the worst call of the tournament.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Stack is back on this Saturday and while I love March Madness even I have to say the tournament has been as exciting as in previous years.  No buzzer beaters.  Few upsets.  We hae still seen some very good basketball, at least for one half in most of these games.  Half the field will be advancing to the Sweet 16 today.  Let’s make some picks in “the stack” for today, Saturday, March 18th:

 

Friday’s NCAA Tournament reaction

 

Much like Thursday, Friday did not see very many upsets.  Rhode Island never trailed in their game against Creighton, taking it to the Jays #asexpected.  They are going to play perhaps the best game of the Sweet 16, at least Sunday’s best game against #3 seed Oregon.  #10 seed Wichita State won a dog fight against #7 seed Dayton.  #11 seed USC played most exciting game of the day with #6 seed SMU.  The Mustangs were up by ten points and that is when USC decided to start playing.  When they trail by double digits in the second half, that really appears to bring out their best.  They threw a zone defense out there that really affected SMU’s offense down the stretch.  SMU had a 65-63 lead and had the ball, but one player stepped out of bounds and USC made them pay for it with a three pointer.  SMU’s last second shot didn’t fall and USC prevailed 66-65.  The most controversial and definitely the worst call of the tournament thus far was the flagrant one that officials gave Desi Rodriguez for his intentional on Arkansas’ Jaylen Barford.  Arkansas would go on to win 77-71.  It was an atrocious call.  There was incidental tripping and don’t all players try and foul a player and not always make a play on the ball?  Very poor decision by the officials.  #10 seed Marquette and #7 seed South Carolina was shaping up to be the game of the day with the two teams going back and forth, but the Gamecocks pulled away in the final six minutes knocking down every shot they took it seemed like.  Huge home court advantage for them playing in Greenville.  That will be a good game against #2 seed Duke.  We will give the best high scoring game of the day instead to #10 Oklahoma State and #7 Michigan.  The Wolverines outlasted the Cowboys to prevail 92-91.  Now let’s preview today’s games.

 

#5 Notre Dame vs. #4 West Virginia 12:10 PM ET CBS (West Region, Buffalo, NY)

 

Both teams had hard fought battles in their opening games and Notre Dame in particular did not look very good.  They were 14 of 21 from the free throw line which is not what you would expect from the best free throw shooting team in the nation.  West Virginia’s defense is going to be difficult and since they can score that will mean Notre Dame can ill-afford to miss a lot of shots.  I still think they are the better team though and will make their way to the Sweet 16.

 

Pick: Notre Dame

 

#8 Wisconsin vs. #1 Villanova 2:40 PM ET CBS (East Region, Buffalo, NY)

 

There are a number of people out there it feels like they sense an upset here.  Wisconsin is playing really good basketball right now, but there is a reason Villanova has lost only three games all year.  Yes they didn’t look great to start out against The Mount on Thursday, but they won’t get off to a slow start in this one.  They’ll be ready and I like Josh Hart to lead the way on both ends of the court for the Wildcats to pull out a low scoring victory.

 

Pick: Villanova

 

#8 Northwestern vs. #1 Gonzaga 5:15 PM ET CBS (West Region, Salt Lake City, UT)

 

Northwestern was gifted a win by Vanderbilt on Thursday, but that shouldn’t take away from how well they played.  Gonzaga didn’t play well at all in their first game and another performance today like the one they had Thursday against South Dakota State will mean that they will be bounced from the tournament.  I don’t see that happening.  Northwestern is a great story, but Gonzaga is the much better team and they will pick up the win.

 

Pick: Gonzaga

 

#11 Xavier vs. #3 Florida State 6:10 PM ET TNT (West Region, Orlando, FL)

 

Florida State survived Dunk City.  Their size and overall athleticism will be too much for Xavier.  Perhaps if Xavier was at full strength and didn’t have so many injuries this would be different.  If they didn’t have the injuries though, they wouldn’t be an eleven seed.

 

Pick: Florida State

 

#12 Middle Tennessee State vs. #4 Butler 7:10 PM ET TBS (South Region, Milwaukee, WI)

 

This is an incredibly difficult game to pick.  I really like both teams.  Middle Tennessee State came to Wisconsin expecting to beat Minnesota and they have great players in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw.  Butler just does everything well.  It was Tyler Lewis that really helped to push them and pull away from Winthrop.  I don’t feel good about picking a winner in this matchup.

 

Pick: Middle Tennessee State

 

#7 St. Mary’s vs. #2 Arizona 7:45 PM ET CBS (West Region, Salt Lake City, UT)

 

St. Mary’s plays some of the slowest basketball in the game.  Against Arizona I don’t know how much that slow tempo will help them.  Arizona has too many playmakers and they will pull away from St. Mary’s at the latest midway through the second half.

 

Pick: Arizona

 

#5 Virginia vs. #4 Florida 8:40 PM ET TNT (East Region, Orlando, FL)

 

Speaking of teams that play slow, okay Virginia doesn’t play slow, but it feels like they do thanks to their defense.  They play in a lot of low-scoring games though you wouldn’t know it when they scored 76 points in their opening game against UNC-Wilmington.  They won’t be scoring that many points against Florida and despite Florida not having one of their better players with an injury, I think they find a way to take down Virginia.

 

Pick: Florida

 

#5 Iowa State vs. #4 Purdue 9:40 PM ET TBS (Midwest Region, Milwaukee, WI)

 

The two best games of the day are in Milwaukee.  Iowa State we know can score a lot of points, but will they have an answer for Purdue and big guy Caleb Swanigan?  I say yes.  Iowa State really wants a rematch with Kansas.  They’re going to get it unless Sparty takes down Kansas first.  Lots of points in this one.  Purdue won’t be able to keep up.

 

Pick: Iowa State

 

Coming up Sunday: Saturday reaction plus picks for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament games