2015: A Year to Remember
OVERVIEW
January 1, 2016
Joe Broback
Alabama and Clemson wrapped up the season in spectacular fashion. Alabama had to work for a national championship for the first time since 2009 against Texas. NDSU won its fifth national championship in a row. Congrats to the Bison and Crimson Tide on their impressive seasons. Special shout out to Bison players Zach Vraa and Dimitri Williams who hail from Rosemount, MN as fellow Irish alumni like myself and Jaxon Brown and Cam Pedersen from Eau Claire Regis, WI (former players I coached). College football provided many special moments this year, and it's sad to see the season end. But 2016 figures to be just as exciting and full of memories as well.
For this blog, this will be the last post for a few months until spring ball. For those who are regulars, thank you for your support and weekly reading. For any new readers, please come back for 2016. The support I received for this was more than I anticipated and obviously it isn't possible without you readers. If you enjoyed this year, please let others who enjoy college football know. Finally, if you have any suggestions for next year or opinions, let me know.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
*all rankings are based on Playoff Committee rankings
Regular Season Record: 36-24 Bowl Record: 23-19
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
My pick: NDSU 27 Jacksonville State 24 ACTUAL: NDSU 37 Jacksonville State 10
My pick: Clemson 31 Alabama 27 ACTUAL: Alabama 45 Clemson 40
The Way Too Early Top 4 (Plus 4 more)
If you missed the national championship game, you missed a classic. Alabama and Clemson fought hard, but the defenses were actually the worst part of each team (which is scary to say). Special teams saved the day for Alabama, Jake Coker provided his best performance on the biggest stage, and Nick Saban smiled. Clemson has nothing to hang its head on, because they played Alabama as good as any team on the Tide's schedule. Dabo Swinney's team will look forward to next season, and should have a lot to be excited about. Some players may leave, but Deshaun Watson will return which could influence other decisions. 2016 is already shaping up to be an exciting year in college football, so here are four teams (way too early) that will start as the top four and also included are four other teams that you should watch. Returning starters will fluctuate, and we will get a better picture come spring and fall.
#1 Clemson Tigers 18 (9 Offense, 9 Defense)----Clemson could lose multiple starters to the NFL, with two notables in Shaq Lawson and Mackensie Alexander. However, should they stay, the Tigers should have no problems reaching the playoff again. Lawson and Alexander led a physical defense this year, and losing only two starters would mean more improvement next season. Wayne Gallman is also one of the most underrated backs in the nation, and made many Alabama defenders look bad on national tv.
#2 Oklahoma Sooners 17 (8 Offense, 9 Defense)----This number, like Alabama's, is likely to drop due to NFL early departures. If those players choose to return, Oklahoma will be dangerous and a team on a mission. Baker Mayfield returns and his leadership and fire will keep the Sooners focused. The returns of Dominique Alexander and Zack Sanchez would bolster an experienced unit, which usually provides an advantage in the high scoring Big 12.
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide 13 (8 Offense, 5 Defense)----Expect this number to decrease more with the losses of Derrick Henry, OJ Howard, and A'Shawn Robinson who will consider or leave for the NFL. Bama isn't worried about departures because they are celebrating their 4th title in seven year and Nick Saban's 5th overall. I don't like saying teams will reload but Alabama will be a contender next year. Things get interesting if Henry leaves because it means a new running back and new quarterback have to lead the team. Calvin Ridely's return should calm the nerve of whoever replaces Jake Coker.
#4 Baylor Bears 12 (5 Offense, 7 Defense)----Biggest concern for the Bears? Health. Injuries at QB ruined Baylor's 2015 playoff hopes. Next, they need to hope for no rain as they were 0-2 in rainy games this year. Seth Russell will return and his presence will be essential to the Bears' success. His top target in Corey Coleman leaves, but there are still plenty of weapons to utilize. Plus, did you see what Baylor did to North Carolina while using multiple athletes at quarterback?
#5 LSU Tigers 17 (9 Offense, 8 Defense)----Looking at this roster, this may be the youngest team in the nation. LSU had so many underclassmen starting this year, so it's no surprise they return so many. Leonard Fournette and Brandon Harris return in the backfield, and expect both to improve from last year. LSU will give Alabama a run for the SEC West (a serious one) in 2016, and Fournette could run away with the Heisman.
#6 Michigan Wolverines 14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)----Most of the cornerstones will return for the Wolverines, but two essential areas need to be replaced: quarterback and linebacker. Jake Rudock is gone and all linebackers are out of eligibility as well. However, the top rusher and receivers return along with studs Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers on defense. Michigan will field one of the best defenses in the nation once again, and should contend for the Big 10 East at a minimum.
#7 Florida State Seminoles 17 (11 Offense, 6 Defense)----Technically the Seminoles are losing their QB in Everett Golson, but Sean Maguire is really the man running the show. Maguire took over the starting role and never looked back. The 'Noles loss to Houston to end the year was difficult to stomach, but with every starter returning on offense, Jimbo Fisher expects great improvement. Dalvin Cook returns and was a monster in his second season, so expect more big numbers next year as well. Defensively, Fisher has to replace multiple key pieces, but shouldn't have to worry with the recruits they bring to campus.
#8 Tennessee Volunteers 16 (9 Offense, 7 Defense)----I think this is more of a "I hope" than "I think" pick. Butch Jones has done a great job turning around a program that suffered through the Derek Dooley and Lane Kiffin era's, but Jones appears to have his team headed in the right direction. Tennessee needs to take a big step in 2016, because they left us wanting more in 2015. A blowout win over Northwestern in their bowl game helped build excitement, but they need to pull through in big games. Jones has brought in the talent to compete in the SEC, but now needs that talent to perform on the field.
2016 Group of 5 Top 4
This year's Group of 5 Top 4 proved it can play with the Power 5 schools, and next should prove more of the same. All eyes will be directed towards Houston with the return of Greg Ward Jr. and Tom Herman. If their success continues in 2016, the real concern will be if Herman is going to stick around once he receives another job offer. 2016 is sure to bring more surprises and upsets just like 2015 (Toledo beating Arkansas and Memphis beating Ole Miss). In the spirit of way too early releases and predictions, here are the Group of 5 Top 4 with four other teams to consider. The numbers after the name are returning starters with a breakdown of each side of the ball, but that can change with players leaving early for the NFL draft.
#1 Houston Cougars 14 (8 Offense, 6 Defense)----The return of Ward and Herman is enough for people in Texas to notice the hottest Group of 5 team in the nation. After pulling off an upset of Florida State the Cougars have their sights on the playoff next year (the real one). Houston returns 14 starters next year but will need to find a replacement for WR Demarcus Ayers, who declared for the NFL draft. Regardless of who plays receiver, having Ward and RB Brandon Wilson return will give Houston weapons to work with. Houston will have the hype and they will need it. Game 1 Opponent in 2016? Oklahoma.
#2 San Diego State Aztecs 15 (7 Offense, 8 Defense)----Losing CB Domontae Kazee was going to hurt his secondary unit, but he changed his mind an will return for his senior season. That gives the Aztec's defense four of their five secondary starters returning. Kazee's return is big, but not as important as the return of Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey returns 4,272 yards and 45 touchdowns rushing to a team that has momentum after a 42-7 blowout of Cincinnati. Christian Chapman took over at QB when Maxwell Smith was injured and played well. He will still have to battle against former Oregon QB Jake Rodrigues for the starting job, but whoever wins should feel comfortable with Pumphrey next to them.
#3 South Florida Bulls 15 (8 Offense, 7 Defense)----There is quite a risk putting a team under the radar in 2015 all the way in the top 4 for 2016, but South Florida doesn't mind. Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack return for their junior years after putting up stellar numbers in their sophomore seasons. A loss to Western Kentucky to end the year stings, but the Bulls should have a strong showing in 2016. A tough non-conference schedule awaits (home games against Townson, Northern Illinois, and Florida State and an away game at Syracuse), so it could be tough sledding to begin, but the Bulls showed they can compete. Mack and Flowers will lead the way on offense, and hopefully put up enough points to win.
#4 Boise State Broncos 14 (9 Offense, 5 Defense)----Some may think Boise State will be ranked in the top 25 based on reputation, but they deserve to be there regardless of reputation. The Broncos defense loses star Kamlei Correa to the NFL, but that isn't unfamiliar to a team that creates stars in Idaho on a yearly basis. Injuries was a common theme throughout the nation, and Boise State was not immune. Freshman QB Brett Rypien stepped in after Ryan Finley was injured, and struggled to get his feet wet. Rypien finished the year with 3353 yards along with 20 touchdowns, and will have top target Thomas Sperbeck to throw towards again. If key players can stay healthy, the Broncos should get back to being Boise State and back in the top 25.
Four Others to Consider:
#5 BYU Cougars14 (7 Offense, 7 Defense)----Kalani Sitake takes over a team that was getting national recognition in the first month of the 2015 season, but the attention quickly evaporated. Tanner Mangum took over for prolific QB Taysom Hill and threw for 23 touchdowns. Mangum will have to win the starting job next year, but he has shown tons of promise. The Cougars added legend Ty Detmer to its staff, so Mangum will be in great hands. Detmer will control much of the offense, but BYU prides itself on outstanding defense. Sitake is a defensive mind who played at BYU, so his passion will inspire his players. A brutal start to the schedule awaits with games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, and West Virginia. If the Cougars survive that stretch, they get Toledo and take a trip to East Lansing against Michigan State. BYU won't have much time to warm up to the season, and a winning mentality must start in the offseason.
#6 Georgia Southern Eagles 14 (7 Offense, 7 Defense)----Bowling Green can tell you first hand what it's like to get lost in the triple option. The Falcons yielded 58 points to the Eagles in their bowl game. Georgia Southern's triple option attack is lethal, and can tear up any defense (just ask Nick Saban). Kevin Ellison and Matt Breida return to lead a deceiving offensive attack that gave most defenses fits. Consistency will be a major focus for the Eagles in the offseason, as their four losses this year provided a couple head scratches. An non-conference schedule that includes Ole Miss and Georgia Tech will test this team, but it needs to show they have progressed from this past year. If the bowl game is any indication, the Eagles will make a bold statement in 2016.
#7 Tulsa Golden Hurricane----15 (8 Offense, 7 Defense)----I'm not saying Tulsa is going back to GJ Kinne days, but they certainly have given fans glimpses of hope. Phillip Montgomery has shown that his offense can put up points, and now he just needs more defense to help out. Dane Evans returns to lead Montgomery's offense, one that he mastered at Baylor before leaving for Tulsa. It remains to be seen how good Tulsa can be, but expect a lot more points to be scored again in 2016, How the defense improves will determine their fate.
#8 Marshall Thundering Herd 13 (7 Offense, 6 Defense)----A grind-it-out win over UConn has given Doc Holliday's squad much neede momentum for the next season. Freshman QB Chase Litton has shown flashes of greatness, and should excel next year. While Marshall has to fill many voids on defense, Litton and the offense should be steady. A year of starting is under his belt, and his solid play against the Huskies makes Herd fans excited. Those same fans can be glad Western Kentucky's Brandon Doughty is out of eligibility, as the Herd should be the front runners for the Conference USA.
2016 Heisman Hopefuls
Again, another list that's way too early, but building up the hype doesn't hurt. When you look at this list, there are quite a few sophomores (in 2015) that excelled this season who project to thrive as juniors in 2016. These are some names to know, and a little about them.
Deshaun Watson/Wayne Gallman, Clemson----Watson and Gallman can rush on anyone, and should lead the Tigers in 2016. The combo is the reason the Tigers offense thrived and made it to Glendale.
Leonard Fournette, LSU----The hype died in 2015, but should be revived thanks to an experienced returning core on offense. For those saying he's overrated, he will prove you wrong and run with a purpose. SEC defenses have been warned.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma----A passionate leader who can play football. Elusive with a good arm. If Mayfield can focus better in 2016, the Sooners will be dangerous. If he keeps whining that no one gave him a scholarship, Bob Stoops may be out the door with him next year.
Christian McCaffrey, Stanford----May be the reason Stanford scores points next year. Kevin Hogan is gone, making McCaffrey more important (if that's possible) and more productive (also if possible) than this year.
Dalvin Cook, Florida State----Injuries slowed Cook along with a quarterback dilemma. Sean Maguire should provide some stability for Cook and the combo should lead the Seminoles in an attempt to overthrow Clemson in the ACC.
Nick Chubb, Georgia----Big asterisk next to Chubb's name. He needs to recover from surgery after a nasty injury, but I expect him to make a full recovery. The Kirby Smart era will begin and Chubb will have to steady the offense until the quarterback situation is figured out.
Royce Freeman, Oregon----Another back that needs to be a rock. Rolls Royce will be featured heavily on a team that is bringing another FCS transfer in to Eugene and needs to figure things out defensively.
Seth Russell, Baylor----A neck injury derailed Russell's Heisman run in 2015. It also ruined Baylor's playoff hopes. A healthy Russell is dangerous, but the weapons Art Briles brings to Waco should help Russell and Baylor in 2016.
Things to Change for Next Year
Eight Team Playoff----While ratings this year decreased from this year, an expansion should still be considered. Quarterfinal games would provide more excitement. Whoever is charge of scheduling needs to do better next year. Games should be played Saturdays (because that's normally when college football is) and be mindful of other events occurring the same day.
Scheduling----A rule needs to be made to eliminate FCS teams on FBS Power 5 team schedules. Power 5 teams need to figure out how to get other Power 5 conferences on their non-conference lineup. NCAA basketball has conference battles (Big 12-SEC/Big Ten-ACC challenges), and football could incorporate something similar.
Week 7 Committee----What value does the committee have in Week 7? In my opinion, not much. Sure it gets everyone excited, but that excitement wears off by Week 9 until the final two rankings. Plus, the committee's consistency needs to be evaluated. The committee has been good at getting quality teams in the playoff, but the journey up until those final rankings is always rocky and inconsistent. Also, ranking 25 teams seems unnecessary considering the committee's purpose is to pick the teams in the playoff.
Criteria----It seemed like this year, the committee's criteria changed week to week. While that's fine, it leaves for a lot of questions leading up to the final rankings (so basically it's consistency). Also, I believe the committee's stance on Group of 5 teams is a little harsh. It's understandable they don't want to let an undefeated Group of 5 team into the top 25 based on record, but it doesn't mean that team is undeserving. Some of the top Group of 5 teams beat Power 5 teams this year. Memphis beat Ole Miss, Houston beat Florida State, and Toledo beat Arkansas. Throw in other games like Temple lost to Notre Dame by 2 and Boise State beating Washington by 3 (which aren't as impressive) and you can't deny that the Group of 5 can compete. Every team from the Group of 5 can't be considered, but that could change next year.
Bold Predictions for 2016
Alabama will lose twice. First game against USC (neutral), Ole Miss (road), Tennessee (road), and LSU (road) are all possibilities.
Dakota Prukop and Greyson Lambert will lose their quarterback battles. Prukop came from a 5-6 Montana State team. Lambert struggled after coming from Virginia. Not exactly "cream of the crop" if you ask me.
Army will beat Navy. Keenan Reynolds is gone, and Army is young and on the rise (in the rivalry).
Someone other than Oregon and Stanford will win the Pac-12. USC has a good chance, and the opening game against Alabama will show us how good they are. The Ducks and Cardinal have won the last 8 straight titles.
