No Looking Back: CFB National Championship Week

By Joey Broback

• A State of Gameday

Jan. 08, 2016

OVERVIEW

January 1, 2016

Joe Broback

One final week. The Power of One has brought us to one final game. Clemson versus Alabama in the National Championship. It's sad to see college football wrap up but it has been a wild and exciting ride. With the finish of college football for this season, next week will be the last post for a few months. We will wrap up the bowl season with some highlights and summaries, as well as give some (way too early) previews into the 2016 college football season. So far bowl games have been surprising but also have provided blowouts. Ratings have gone down from last year's playoff to this year, so that will be something the college football world will address. Playing the semifinal games on New Year's Eve probably didn't help the ratings when most people aren't watching tv, so an alternate date will most likely be set to boost ratings next year. In one final week of previews, we look at the FBS championship as well as the FCS championship Saturday. It doesn't get much better than championship with two teams (Alabama and North Dakota State) trying to continue each team's domination at their respective levels. Alabama is looking for its 4th national championship in 7 years, while also looking to end a two year drought of SEC national championships. NDSU is looking for its 5th straight national championship, which provides its own hype for that game. Two quality games await Saturday (NDSU vs. Jacksonville State) and Monday (Alabama vs. Clemson), then we will try to cope without college football until spring ball starts.

GROUP OF 5 FINAL RANKINGS

*all rankings are relative to this section

It will come as no surprise who takes the top spot this year after the bowl games ended. Excitement levels were high this year even without normal Group of 5 powerhouse Boise State struggling (although they did finish really strong). There is much excitement surrounding next year for these teams, but for now we will look at the final rankings in the Group of 5.

Four In:

#1 Houston Cougars (13-1)----Tom Herman is the hottest new head coach in the nation and his Cougars are one of the hottest teams in college football. Herman was rumored to be leaving for a larger school, but stayed put with a contract extension. Many thought Florida State would give them problems, but Houston dominated the Peach Bowl offensively. The Seminoles had no answer for Herman's offense and could not keep up with the pressure of putting up points. A 13 win season (first in school history) is sensational, and has grabbed the attention of every media outlet. Their performance has brought back the culture of winning to Houston, something they have come to expect under previous coaching staffs including Art Briles and Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin's Aggies just lost two five-star quarterbacks, one of whom will be attending Houston next year (Kyle Allen). The promise of Herman staying multiple years appears genuine, and the fans hope the Cougars can continue its winning ways. Some have them in the playoff next year, and while we can't get ahead of ourselves, the Cougars could make a run. Needless to say, they commanded this top spot and should expect a lot of hype for next season.

#2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (12-2)----Western Kentucky may never have another quarterback like Brandon Doughty, but the excitement he provided is second to none. WKU overcame two losses (one early to Indiana and one against LSU) but were mostly competitive in both games. The Hilltoppers knew how to put up points quickly and buried many teams this season. 11 seniors will leave both sides of the ball this year, so it could be a rebuilding season, but could return multiple offensive athletes to help whoever replaces Doughty. Don't expect next year to be as high scoring offensively, but Jeff Brohm should be able to field another solid team. Brohm is the most successful coach the Hilltoppers have hired since moving to the FBS level (well Divisiona I-A). If the Hilltoppers can have another solid year next season, expect Brohm's name to be popular when it comes to job openings.

#3 Navy Midshipmen (11-2)----The good news? Navy was impressive in its bowl win over Pitt. The other good news? Coach Ken Niumatalolo decided to return to the Midshipmen after considering BYU's head coaching offer. The bad news? Keenan Reynolds is out of eligibility. Losing Reynolds will sting, but at least they got the most out of his four years in their system. Reynolds finished his illustrious with an FBS record 88 career touchdowns and another FBS record for 4,559 rushing yards by a quarterback. The offense takes a huge hit next year by losing 10 of its starters with receiver Jamir Tillman as the only retuner. While the offense may need time to get momentum next year, the defense will return a majority of its key pieces. Keeping Niumatalolo will help ease the transition of losing so many players, but it could be rough sailing next year.

#4 San Diego State Aztecs (11-3)----Cincinnati's Hayden Moore is probably glad his bowl game against the Aztecs is over. San Diego State ran away in the Hawaii Bowl, leaving the Bearcats sprawling for answers.  Donnell Pumphrey has been rumored to be heading to the NFL, but his return would provide a tremendous boost. The Aztecs turned a 1-3 team into 11-3 by rattling off 10 consecutive wins, and doing so with a freshman quarterback for most of it. Christian Chapman stepped in after senior Maxwell Smith tore his ACL in the fifth game against Nevada, but the Aztecs never used that as an excuse. Chapman will still have to win the job next year, but handing the ball off to Pumphrey should ease some concerns.

Four Out:

#5 Georgia Southern Eagles (9-4)----While their record may not be as impressive as the other teams below them, their win over Bowling Green was nothing short of jaw dropping. A game which many thought the Eagles wouldn't keep up turned into a game that the Eagles ran (literally) away with. Favian Upshaw led the way with 199 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns leading the Eagles to 534 totals yards (452 on the ground), and Bowling Green quickly became a team pressing for points and making mistakes. This dominant performance pushed Georgia Southern to the fifth spot and surprised many watching this game. Starting the season with a 44-0 loss to West Virginia had many doubting the Eagles, and more doubt arose when Georgia State put a pounding on this team, but a rebound game occurred after each loss. The triple option is the bread and butter of this team, and it is the reason they will be competitive every year.

#6 Toledo Rockets (10-2)----When a team loses the final game of the regular season, it is difficult to predict how they will respond if they are playing a postseason game. Toledo was coming off of a disappointing loss to Western Michigan heading into their matchup with Temple. Focusing on a bowl game after a loss of a game and your head coach is difficult, but this team proved how resilient they are. The Rockets defense held a normally tough Temple running attack to 99 yards and keeping the offense in check all game. In true Toledo fashion, there wasn't one player that stood out on either side of the ball, but both units did what they needed to do to win the game. Matt Campbell has done an admirable job bringing the Rockets program to where it is now, but can Jason Candle carry that torch? Next year will test Candle and their fans will wonder if he can sustain the success that Campbell started.

#7 Temple Owls (10-4)----Defense wins championships......unless the offense doesn't help out. Temple's season is summarized by the first sentence. The Owl's defense was stellar all year, but it was always up to the offense to prove they can help win games while the defense did their part. With multiple award winner Tyler Matakevich leading the defense, the Owls were set to compete with anyone. Temple had a legitimate chance to beat Notre Dame, a team many thought would be in the playoff. Temple lost by four, but the season outlook was high. Then came the hiccup against South Florida and the AAC championship game loss to Houston. Against the Bulls, the defense struggled to stop the offense, but the Owls could only  manage 23 points. In the title bout against the Cougars, the Owls held Houston to its second lowest point total of the year, but the Owls offense put up its worst scoring total all year. Coach Matt Rhule will return after going through the coaching carousel, but he will need to replace many starters on defense. Nevertheless, Temple should be proud of their success this year after finishing 6-6 and 2-10 in the two previous seasons. A 10 win season may not happen again next year, but the Owls know they are capable of reaching that level again.

#8 Appalachian State Mountaineers (11-2)----Kicker Zach Matics may have experienced one of the best bowl moments for the 2015 season. The senior put the ball through the uprights to give the Mountaineers a thrilling victory over Ohio, and he could not contain his excitement. Appalachian State should be used to the excitement because 11 wins doesn't happen on accident. After a beatdown at the hands of Clemson, fans were concerned about the course of the season. A loss to Arkansas State certainly didn't help either, but the Mountaineers never lost confidence. Sophomore Taylor Lamb put together an outstanding season, but will have to overcome losing three top targets to graduation. Lamb's ability to move the ball through the air will help ease the transition next year for the new receiving corps. Next year is uncertain, but Matics' kick gives them momentum heading to next year even if he won't.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

*all rankings are based on Playoff Committee rankings

Regular Season Record: 36-24 Bowl Record: 22-18

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS

My pick: Tennessee 31 Northwestern 24 ACTUAL: Tennessee 45 Northwestern 6

My pick: Florida 21 Michigan 17 ACTUAL: Michigan 41 Florida 7

My pick: Notre Dame 38 Ohio State 35 ACTUAL: Ohio State 44 Notre Dame 28

My pick: Stanford 31 Iowa 24 ACTUAL: Stanford 45 Iowa 16

My pick: Ole Miss 42 Oklahoma State 35 ACTUAL: Ole Miss 48 Oklahoma State 20

My pick: Georgia 24 Penn State 14 ACTUAL: Georgia 24 Penn State 17

My pick: Arkansas 38 Kansas State 24 ACTUAL: Arkansas 45 Kansas State 23

My pick: Oregon 40 TCU 39 ACTUAL: TCU 47 Oregon 41

My pick: Arizona State 33 West Virginia 30 ACTUAL: West Virginia 43 Arizona State 42

FCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (Frisco, TX)

#1 Jacksonville State Gamecocks (13-1) vs. #3 North Dakota State Bison (12-2)

For those who don't already know, both of these teams are recognizable for different reasons. Jacksonville State took Auburn down to the wire before falling in overtime on the road. North Dakota State is looking for its fifth consecutive national championship and second under coach Chris Klieman. Jacksonville State is known for putting up a ton of points (161 in three playoff games) and letting the defense make enough stops to win. NDSU is know for the opposite as it relies and tough defense to make stops (13.8 points against per game) and let its offense put up enough points to win (93 in three playoff games). Troymaine Pope has had a tremendous year carrying the ball for the Gamecocks, and his abilities have opened throwing lanes for Jenkins to find his favorite target in Barge. If Jacksonville State can dictate the pace of the game, they will be putting up points in a hurry. NDSU likes to slow the pace of play and uses multiple tight end sets offensively. When it comes down to winning, both teams know how to excel in that category. However, when it comes to winning big, NDSU has the advantage. Winning 4 straight national championships doesn't happen by making excuses because your coach left or you lost a lot of starters from the previous year. You win national championships by making sacrifices and wanting to win more than the other team. NDSU has one player on its roster (Zach Vraa) who knows what it's like to lose in the postseason, and Vraa (above) is a key player coming into this game. He knows that it takes to win and knows what it feels like to lose. When it comes down to it, the Bison know what to do in these situations. They breed a winning culture in Fargo.

My pick: NDSU 27 Jacksonville State 24

FBS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GMAE (Glendale, AZ)

#1 Clemson Tigers (14-0) vs. #2 Alabama Crimson tide (13-1)

No hype needed. This game explains itself. Winner takes home the national championship. Loser focuses on next year. Clemson has been doubted all year, but has remained undefeated and impressed fans along the way. Alabama looked lost after a crushing defeat against Ole Miss, but rebounded and started playing like Alabama teams normally do. Deshaun Watson may be the most talked about player in the country, and his performance nearly won him a Heisman trophy as a sophomore. He and Wayne Gallman have run all over the field on the way to a perfect record, and their defense is as good as any. Brent Venables' defense suffocates offenses, but will be posed with a difficult challenge in stopping Heisman winner Derrick Henry. This game will come down to which team can connect on the deep ball and who can make slightly more progress in the trenches. Alabama's front seven has been widely regarded as the best in college football, so Gallman and Watson may struggle to win that battle. Alabama is getting all of the hype and credit based on reputation, whether it's right or wrong. Many are picking them based on reputation, which is unfair to Clemson. The only way this game would stun people is if Clemson wins in a blowout. 

Alabama's offense under Lane Kiffin is more adept to score points in a hurry, but the bread and butter is still running the ball. Alabama is averaging 34 points a game but relies on its ability to keep the other team off the scoreboard (average margin of victory is 23 points per win). Where the Tide run into issues is when the other team can score at will, and their lone loss to Ole Miss shows what happens when their defense struggles. For Clemson, the magic number should be 40. Bama has only eclipsed that scoring mark twice this season compared to the Tigers' six games scoring 40 or more. If Clemson can jump on Alabama early, they could force Alabama's offense to pass more which doesn't bode well for the Tide. Tide QB Jake Coker has only surpassed 40 pass attempts once, and it resulted in Alabama's first and only loss this year against Ole Miss. In that game, the Rebels were up 30-17 going into the fourth quarter, which meant Coker would have to pass more to catch up. Excluding that game, Coker is averaging 24 pass attempts per game, further proving that they want to run the ball with Derrick Henry and complement him with the pass game. Compare that to Clemson's offense, and you may see some similarities, but Clemson puts a lot more trust in their quarterback. Watson has attempted 76 more passes than Coker (almost six more a game). In addition to being able to throw the ball, Watson's running ability is a threat and may be better than his throwing ability. Watson has rushed for at least 90 yards in six games this year, but he may not have that success on Monday. What he can do is use that running ability to keep plays alive, which he has shown he is capable of doing. 

There is one difference in this game, and it has to do with response to adversity. If Alabama gets down early and can't get Derrick Henry going against Clemson's defense (18th in rush defense), Coker hasn't shown he can bring a team back through the air. However if Clemson can't get Watson or Gallman going on the ground against Alabama (1st in rush defense), Watson has the ability to pass and can do so consistently. Both teams want to run first, but the passing game may become more important if both teams are loading the box to stop the run. Alabama's weakness is the deep ball, but Clemson excels at covering downfield. This game will come down to the battle in the trenches, and whatever side wins will determine the outcome. National championships aren't won based on reputation, but toughness and sacrifice. Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban both preach making sacrifices and playing for a team. Alabama is looking for its fourth championship in seven years, but Clemson is looking for their first since 1981. The Tide have been trending for almost a decade, and Clemson is the new kid on the block. However, this new kid knows a thing or two about guts, and the Tigers are looking to change the tides in their favor.

My pick: Clemson 31 Alabama 27

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Written by

Joey Broback

UWEC alum. College football enthusiast from the State of Hockey.

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