TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa State Cyclones: How to watch, start time, betting line and predictions
TCU OUTLOOK
I knew that TCU would be good this year, but this is not what I had in mind. After a disappointing 2016 season, we expected them to bounce back. The Horned Frogs have done so and more by reaching the top of the conference, and currently the last spot in the College Football Playoff. What's their secret? They really don't have one, but they are playing the defense that Gary Patterson envisioned.
Last year, Travin Howard (130 tackles) and Ty Summers (121) had to make too many plays because of the defensive struggles. Both Howard and Summers won't get close to those numbers, but it's because the defense isn't on the field as much as last year. They have also improved in scoring defense, giving up just 14.9 points per game after allowing 27.8 in 2016. Neither Howard nor Summers will complain about their reduced production, because the team success is what's more important. It helps when the offense continues to be explosive.
Kenny Hill's improvement as a passer has done wonders for an offense that improved in scoring by 10 points per game. Hill's accuracy wasn't awful last year (61.1% completion percentage) and, while he doesn't throw a lot, he completes a majority (70.2%) of his throws. Outside of Darius Anderson or Kyle Hicks, TCU doesn't rely heavily on one player to make plays. The Horned Frogs have 14 players who have scored a touchdown, and nobody has more than six. That depth all around the field will make life difficult for any opposing defense.
IOWA STATE OUTLOOK
We said that we didn't expect TCU's success, but did we ever expect Iowa State to be tied for second in the conference? That fact is the most surprising development in the Big 12, at least to me.
Matt Campbell has done a marvelous job of getting the Cyclones to this point, and brought a team that was consistently mentioned in the same sentence as Kansas has now distanced itself from their bottom-dwelling partner. Campbell's brought a new energy to both sides of the ball, and took a former quarterback and transformed him into a beast at linebacker. Joel Lanning has made a relatively smooth transition from offense to defense, and it didn't take long for him to figure out his new position. He's already produced a 20 tackle game, and played both ways with the quarterback situation in limbo. Campbell's move for his senior has taken a defense that finished 101st in total defense and brought them to 34th thus far. Now, if he can just get his offense figured out.
Realistically, the Cyclones are one late fourth quarter defensive lapse, and a three interception game against Texas away from being undefeated. But, Campbell didn't let his players dwell in the past, and a quarterback change was made. Kyle Kempt's first game as a starter was at Oklahoma (thanks, coach), but the senior took the challenge in stride and thrived under the pressure. With 343 yards and three touchdowns, Kempt solidified his role as the starter. TCU's defense will be the toughest he faces this year, but we've learned so far that the spotlight isn't too bright for him.
PREDICTION
TCU's been good, there's no doubt about that, but so is Iowa State. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that this game would have such large conference (and potentially national) implications? If this game were in Fort Worth I would feel comfortable picking the Horned Frogs to win by a lot. But the games in Ames, and that atmosphere is no stranger to weird games. An upset wouldn't be surprising, but it appears that TCU is legit this year.
My pick: TCU 42 Iowa State 35
