Why Your Favorite Mountain West Team Will and Won't Make a Playoff Run
There are multiple interesting teams in the Mountain West this year, and a couple aren't your traditional players. New Mexico burst onto the scene with a rushing attack that led the nation, and that attack could be more effective than last year. Wyoming found a winning formula under Craig Bohl, and now, experts are enamored with quarterback Josh Allen's abilities. Yes, the new kids on the block are certainly making some noise, but don't count out the veteran competitors just yet. Boise State is still Boise State. San Diego State still (somehow) has Rocky Long coaching them. Air Force will always be tricky with the triple option. And just when you think you have everything figured out, Hawaii comes out of nowhere last year to make a bowl game and could be dangerous. Depth in this conference is not usually a bad thing, but it might be when it comes to one team making a playoff run.
BOISE STATE
WILL: Boise State has somehow endured the test of time as the Group of 5 team that everyone picks to be successful. Even with Chris Petersen gone, the Broncos have found a way to be relevant every season. There’s some magic in the blue turf, and this year will be another good one.
WON’T: There isn’t anything special about this team that screams playoff. Sure, quarterback Brett Rypien returns, but he has to find new weapons. Defensively, this isn’t the same unit that used to carry Broncos teams in the past. Don’t get me wrong, they have the ability to win 10 games this year, but their schedule it tough. Some magic may even be needed just to win 8 games. Does Ian Johnson have eligibility left?
SAN DIEGO STATE
WILL: How is Rocky Long still here? With his success, he should be long gone by now. Somehow, the Aztecs’ leader stuck around and has yet another great team. A big win over Houston in their bowl game left many to believe that this year could be special even without Donnel Pumphrey.
WON’T: It’s the same problem as Boise State, they will need some luck to make it to double digit wins. The second half of the schedule appears to be easy, but what will their record be when they get there? At least one loss looms when they host Stanford.
AIR FORCE
WILL: Just like Rocky Long, how is Troy Calhoun still around? After finishing 2-10 in 2013, Calhoun ripped off 28 wins the last three seasons, and won the Falcons fourth Commander-In-Chief Trophy in seven years. Even better, they could get back to running the ball more, and that can only mean good things.
WON’T: VMI is a win, but three of the next four games are on the road (Michigan, New Mexico, and Navy). As with all Group of 5 teams, one loss means elimination from playoff contention, and it’s hard to forecast a 5-0 start.
WYOMING
WILL: Craig Bohl can flat out win football games, and any doubters left have been silenced. Matter of fact, let’s give him the trophy for best coach in college football history. Any coach that can win in both the states of North Dakota and Wyoming deserves that title. Does it get any more boring than that? On top of that, he’s helped produce a second overall pick in Carson Wentz, and has the chance to produce the first overall pick in Josh Allen. In North Dakota and Wyoming.
WON’T: Iowa and Oregon present themselves on the schedule this year, and last year’s contest with Nebraska didn’t exactly put Wyoming on the map. They also surrendered 69 points to UNLV, and we’re not talking about basketball in the 1980’s. Most of the hype surrounding this team comes from Allen’s potential, and the expectation that Bohl will do what he did with the Bison.
FRESNO STATE
WILL: Remember when Derek Carr was lighting up defenses on his way to 50 touchdown passes? That team finished 10-2 and faced USC in the Las Vegas Bowl.
WON’T: They lost by 25 to USC, and their other loss was to San Jose State (yep, you read that right). And that was their best season since 2001, and this year's team isn't nearly as talented. Expect a lot of losses by 25 or more this year. Gosh, Derek Carr was fun to watch.
NEW MEXICO
WILL: If you want to make some easy money, bet your buddy what type of play the Lobos will run on any given down. I’ll bet that it’s a run. Championship teams run the ball, and New Mexico knows how to run the ball well. They return their starter at quarterback in Lamar Jordan, which can only mean good things when running their offense.
WON’T: Too bad they don’t play in the West division. The Mountain division is going to be packed this year, and it’s tough to imagine a scenario in which New Mexico makes it out on top. They surprised some teams last year (hello, Air Force and Wyoming), but it will be tough to duplicate that performance again.
UTAH STATE
WILL: Hard to believe it’s already Year 5 for Matt Wells. Despite the struggles last season, this team is plenty talented, and has history on their side against two of the first three teams on their schedule. Trips to Wisconsin and Wake Forest loom, but the Aggies have outscored the Badgers 34-16 in their two meetings, and are undefeated against the Demon Deacons.
WON’T: Ok so their win against Wisconsin was in 1968, and the win against Wake Forest came when things were rough for the Demon Deacons. Last year’s schedule was tough for the Aggies, and had a lot to do with their 3-9 record, but it doesn’t get easier. Wisconsin and Wake Forest replace USC and Arkansas State in non-conference play, and they need to find a way to close out games. Four of their conference losses were by one score or less, and totaled a combined 18 points.
UNLV
WILL: Tony Sanchez came from Las Vegas high school powerhouse Bishop Gorman, and has done a solid job turning the Rebels program around. He has increased his win totals each year, and some think that this is his breakout season. A bowl game isn’t out of the question for this team.
WON’T: A playoff run is out of the question, but this team is headed in the right direction. A 2-0 start is achievable, but a loss against Ohio State looms in the third game. How they do against the Buckeyes could show how far they have come under Sanchez.
COLORADO STATE
WILL: Mike Bobo made a lot of people scratch their heads when he came to Colorado State, but it’s all starting to make sense now. His Rams are poised to make a serious run for the Mountain West, and put their names on the national map as well. Nick Stevens returns at quarterback, and the rest of the offense provides him with multiple weapons to work with. Bobo’s defense returns nine starters, giving fans optimism for a group that was solid in 2016.
WON’T: Their first month of games won’t result in 4-0, as they face Oregon State, Colorado and Alabama. A conference championship should be in reach, but a playoff run is out of the question. This isn’t a bad team, but it’s also not a team that can beat Alabama and lost 44-7 to Colorado last year.
SAN JOSE STATE
WILL: Brent Brennan hopefully can turn this ship around.
WON’T: Former quarterback David Fales and coach Mike MacIntyre have been gone for a while, and the Spartans dearly miss them. It’s rebuilding time once again.
HAWAII
WILL: Nick Rolovich was expected to take some time to get settled and bring Hawaii back to prominence. No one expected that to happen last year. Rolovich got Hawaii up and running, and back to their first bowl game since 2010. Quarterback Dru Brown (above), running back Diocemy Saint Juste, and receiver John Ursua return to an offensive group that will be dangerous. It's tough to saw this team will make a playoff run, but it was also tough to say they would make a bowl game last year too.
WON’T: It’s hard to put a finger on this team. They weren’t expected to make a bowl game last year, so will they take another step forward this year? Or will it be a step back? Their schedule isn’t too bad, but they didn’t really prove they can compete for the conference title last year (lost by a combined score of 107-16 to the two division winners).
NEVADA
WILL: Only way this happens is if Nevada is, in fact, a passing team and they’ve been focusing on the wrong half of their offense for the longest time.
WON’T: I just don’t get this hire very much. Jay Novell likes to run the spread and pass the ball around, and Nevada has been a traditional run-heavy team. I guess the culture needed a change? Could be a disaster in Norvell’s first season.
