Why Your Favorite Pac-12 Team Will and Won't Make a Playoff Run
Washington brought the Pac-12 back to the College Football Playoff after being left out in 2015, but the Huskies didn't represent the conference well in their matchup with Alabama. Now, the conference turns the page to 2017, and hopes to return a team to the playoff to redeem themselves. Colorado was the feel-good story of college football last season, but will struggle to sustain that success. USC returns the hype with their star Sam Darnold, and Washington appears to be reloading. Washington State might finally find some balance in their offense, and Luke Falk's arm will be thankful for that. Oregon and UCLA need bounce back seasons but might still be a year away. Stanford is considered a sleeper team. Ultimately, this conference is loaded with talented teams and plenty of unknown answers to trivial questions. Will the Pac-12 be represented in the playoff? Who will it be? Only the 2017 season has those answers.
PREVIOUSLY: MOUNTAIN WEST, SEC, SUN BELT
USC
WILL: Quarterback Sam Darnold and running back Ronald Jones II give the Trojans the best backfield in the school’s history since Matt Leinhart and Reggie Bush. Yes, the Reggie Bush that won the Heisman in 2005 and helped lead the team to a national championship in 2004. The NCAA can’t wipe those away no matter how hard they try. Now that fans have embraced Clay Helton as their coach, the Trojans have high expectations heading into 2017. Things go well if the Darnold hype train is legit, and his receivers develop in the absence of Juju Smith-Schuster.
WON’T: A slow start like last season won’t help, and there is a lot of hype surrounding this team. Darnold is a projected first round draft pick by many, and that hype isn’t always easy to live up to. Sure, Alabama is gone, but they trade the Tide in for Texas. Until further notice, the Longhorns should put everyone on high alert. Oh and a crucial conference game against Stanford awaits the week before (Week 2). Even though they avoid Washington on the schedule, they do face Washington State and Utah along with the potential of still facing the Huskies if both teams make it to the conference championship game.
COLORADO
WILL: Let’s take a minute to be happy about Colorado’s success in 2016. The Buffs went from being the Kansas of the Pac 12 to competing for a conference championship. Mike MacIntyre has done a phenomenal job getting them back to this point, but don’t think that’s the end goal. Quarterback Steven Montez can sling it, running back Phillip Lindsay returns to run the ball, and Colorado has the talent to compete once again.
WON’T: MacIntyre’s squad overachieved last season and, while it was a fun ride, a step back seems to be what’s on tap for 2017. The non-conference schedule isn’t difficult, but the Buffs have Washington, Washington State, Utah, and USC in conference play. Double digit wins aren’t in the cards again, ending any playoff hopes.
STANFORD
WILL: The best thing for the Cardinal was having Christian McCaffrey leave for the NFL draft. That’s no insult to McCaffrey, as he’s easily one of (if not the) best players in Stanford history. But they’re offense isn’t built to focus on one man. Most of David Shaw’s most successful seasons were due to multiple weapons on offense, and that should be what the offense showcases this year. Throw in the fact that they are a dark horse team after winning 10 games in 2016, and this team could be one of the most dangerous in the nation.
WON’T: Quarterback play has been less than stellar since Kevin Hogan left, and there is a lot of uncertainty heading into this year. Plus, there was that eye opening loss to Washington (44-6) just four games in, which showed that being one dimensional on offense exposes your team. Stanford should compete for the conference, but can they rediscover that magic that so many teams pre-McCaffrey had?
UTAH
WILL: Keep doubting the Utes, because they thrive in those circumstances. Many experts project them to have a losing season this year, which is exactly what Utah wants them to think. QB Troy Williams returns, and he was gifted another dangerous threat in Oregon transfer Darren Carrington. This team keeps getting overlooked, and that’s when a team makes a run.
WON’T: Is there some truth to the expert’s predictions? While I would be surprised if the Utes don’t make a bowl game, but the schedule also doesn’t provide many guaranteed wins. Week 2’s contest against rival BYU is going to be intense.
UCLA
WILL: Jim Mora’s golden child returns in Josh Rosen. After his last season was cut short due to injury, Rosen could be the shot of energy the Bruins need. Mora has brought the talent to LA, and there isn’t any reason why this team can’t compete for the conference and make a playoff run. Rosen beams with confidence, and will make a big difference offensively.
WON’T: Mora had plenty of time to take control of LA while USC was struggling, but could never do it. His seat gets hotter by the day, and is one bad loss away from getting fired. The Bruins’ first five games come against teams that made bowl games last year. Texas A&M, Hawaii, Memphis, Stanford, and Colorado. Think they get out unscathed? Highly doubtful. A 1-2 start would probably signal the end for Mora, and a lot of their success rides on Josh Rosen’s health and development.
ARIZONA STATE
WILL: Surprisingly, Todd Graham has stuck around at a school for a while, and he’s gotten his team to score a ton of points. There was the game against Texas Tech that they won 68-55, and Kalen Ballage (above) tied an NCAA record for touchdowns in a game. Ballage returns with plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball to make some noise.
WON’T: For the most part, the Sun Devils beat the teams they were supposed to, and lost to teams better than them. Same formula may apply this year. Not playoff run material if you ask anyone.
WASHINGTON STATE
WILL: Mike Leach continues to prove one thing: if you like offense via the air, you need to watch his team. But something strange has been happening with the Cougars. They’re running the ball and playing defense too. The last couple years have provided fans with well-rounded teams, and that could finally result in Leach’s squad making a serious run. QB Luke Falk may break some school records when it’s all said and done, but is throwing 100 times in a game on the table?
WON’T: Let’s hope that Falk doesn’t throw 100 times, because that means one of two things: Wazzu is down by a lot and trying to get back in a game or Falk is playing too long against a crappy team. Leach has tried the throw-until-your-arm-falls-off approach once before and, while Connor Halliday broke an NCAA record for pass attempts in a game (89), his team lost 62-38 to Oregon. If Wazzu falls in that trap this year, a playoff run is out of the question. They also need to prove that they can beat top talent in the conference consistently, and a 17-12 loss to Minnesota was a deflating way to end 2016.
CALIFORNIA
WILL: Cal got exactly what they’ve needed for years: a defensive minded coach to lead their team. Justin Wilcox returns to the Pac 12, and should have a positive influence on a team that hasn’t played defense in a long time. He will need some time to turn things around, but at least fans can be excited about the future. Receiver Demetris Robertson will be someone to watch in the conference.
WON’T: See above. Defense seems to be optional for the Golden Bears. That’s hard to do when the offense won’t put up enough points.
ARIZONA
WILL: Remember when Rich Rodriguez was slaying defenses with West Virginia? Pat White and Steve Slaton made the Mountaineers offense impossible to stop. That win over Oklahoma in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl will be one that’s remembered for years to come. It may not be the same now, but Rodriguez has two players in his backfield that could some flashes this year. Quarterback Brandon Dawkins and running back Nick Wilson should be the starters, and they will need to lead a team that will be picked to finish near the bottom of the Pac 12.
WON’T: The clock is ticking for Rich Rod. It’s hard to believe it was just three seasons ago that the Wildcats went 10-4 as this team has struggled mightily. Arizona’s only hope is that teams severely overlook them, and they utilize the surprise factor all season. Not a great strategy. Their defense hasn't made a tackle since Scooby Wright left campus.
OREGON
WILL: It’s a fresh start for the Ducks, and it sounds like new coach Willie Taggert is trying to get back to the basics in everything. That means getting back to running the ball, winning football games, and simpler uniforms (gasp). Oregon still has plenty of talent on the team, including Royce Freeman and Justin Herbert, so the cupboard isn’t bare to make a run.
WON’T: Let’s be honest, there was only one way for former coach Mark Helfrich to go: down. Following Chip Kelly wasn’t going to be easy, and eventually the pressure was too much. What’s really going to hurt the Ducks is a lack of defense (again), and the fact that a new culture needs to be established. That doesn’t happen overnight.
WASHINGTON
WILL: Chris Petersen is a genius and a great coach. Do I need to say more? Ok, I will. Quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin return behind center Coleman Shelton and tackle Trey Adams. Receiver Dante Pettis (above) is a stud who was overshadowed by John Ross last year, and gives Browning a reliable target. Defensive tackle Vita Vea is back and linebacker Azeem Victor returns from injury to lead what should be another stout defense. A playoff run is the expectation, not a hope.
WON’T: The Huskies better pray that the new defensive backs can hang. Corners Kevin King and Sidney Jones along with safety Budda Baker all left for the NFL draft. Whoever takes over those spots has huge shoes to fill. Sure, the offense is “loaded” with firepower, but that same group produced just 194 total yards and seven points against Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinal. Browning and Gaskin need to take the next step with their experience, otherwise this team will be seen as a pretender.
OREGON STATE
WILL: Gary Andersen has proven he can rebuild a struggling program, and his time at Utah State proved that. Now he takes over a Beavers team that has struggled recently, and is looking for a breakthrough. Beating Oregon was a big step, and Andersen’s third year could be the beginning of the success in Corvallis. He had two losing seasons with the Aggies before his breakthrough, and it could be the same with Oregon State. Ryan Nall and Oregon transfer Thomas Tyner will lead a solid backfield.
WON’T: Andersen’s third year at Utah State yielded a 7-6 season, and that seems to be the ceiling for the Beavers. It’s not bad, but it’s not a playoff run. Let’s be honest, the fans in Corvallis would take a winning season at this point over a miracle because it’s more realistic.
