Don't be Outfoxed, De'Aaron is the Best Point Guard in this Class
It’s no secret that Lonzo Ball is the face of college basketball this year. It’s also no secret that Markelle Fultz will most likely be the number one pick in the upcoming NBA draft. And it’s no secret that Dennis Smith Jr. has come off a torn ACL to post an unbelievable season warranting top five draft status. Perhaps the biggest secret, the one that nobody seems to acknowledge even though it’s right in front of their eyes, is the fact that none of these three point guards are the best prospect in this year’s crowded draft class. That designation goes to Kentucky point guard De’Aaron Fox. Assuming he declares, Fox likely won’t be the first, second, or maybe even third point guard off the board come June, but he won’t waste any time proving NBA general managers wrong.
Why make this claim after Fox’s Kentucky team just lost in the Elite Eight after he put up a lackluster stat line of 5-14 for 13 points, four rebounds, and three assists? The truth is he didn’t have a great game, which could in part be attributed to two very questionable early foul calls that forced him to sit the last twelve minutes of the first half. The time that he spent on the bench, though, was telling. The Wildcats really struggled in his absence, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Fox possesses tremendous speed and quickness, which allows him to stay out on his man, because he rarely gets beat to the basket. He is able to get into the face of good shooters and disrupt their shots, which is exactly what he did to Joel Berry of North Carolina on Sunday. Berry is an excellent three-point shooter, hovering at around 40%, and Fox held him to 0-5 from beyond the arc, resulting in eleven total points. The catch: seven of those points came in the time that Fox was on the bench in foul trouble. For the remainder of the game, Berry netted just four, and he noticeably struggled trying to get into a rhythm. None of the other point guards in this draft have nearly the defensive potential that Fox shows on a nightly basis, getting out on shooters, stepping into passing lanes, and using his quick hands.
Make no mistake, Fox plays at full speed, but never seems out of control. He had the fewest turnovers per game of any of the four major point guard prospects, and created the offense for his team with his ability to get to the rim or draw defenders in and kick it out. His style is reminiscent of another Kentucky point guard.
Fox goes up with the left hand over North Carolina forward Isaiah Hicks.
John Wall posted nearly identical numbers in his lone season in Lexington back in 2009, and it’s hard to ignore how eerily similar the two look on the court. Both players are a blur, with outstanding speed on both sides of the ball and the ability to explode at the rim for their fair share of acrobatic finishes. They both facilitate the offense as well. Wall’s passing prowess is well-documented, and Fox has the court vision to be a similar floor general at the next level.
Fox also gets his share of the concerns that people had about Wall coming out of college. John Wall wasn’t always 210 pounds. He played at 180 at Kentucky, and has bulked up in his seven years training with NBA strength coaches. Fox is listed at 175, but he figures to do the same. More importantly, in a league where the three-ball is becoming more and more of a focus, it’s not a huge part of Fox’s game. He went through a major shooting slump this year, as did Wall when he first entered the league, shooting just 7% in his second season. Wall has since worked on his shot to the point where he can be a weapon from deep if left open, and it’s no longer a weakness of his game. He shot 35% from three last year. However, Fox’s shooting is exaggerated as a weakness.
A lackluster stretch caused his percentages to dip, but over the past ten games, Fox has shot 47% from deep. Projected over a season, that would lead the SEC. There has also never been anything on Fox’s scouting report to show that he has been a poor shooter in the past. He shot 34% in high school, which doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, but it’s high enough to not be considered a weakness. And if you think these NBA teams don’t pay attention to high school at all, let me know how you feel when Harry Giles gets drafted in the first round. Fox’s form is pure, and there’s no reason to believe that with some work he won’t be able to be a threat from long range.
Newsflash! Guys who can’t shoot threes don’t hit ten in a game, no matter where they’re playing. Fox simply doesn’t look to pull the trigger as much as his counterparts. He’ll often take a step in to take a more high-percentage look or draw contact, and he excels from midrange and in the paint, so why wouldn’t he?
This still remains a special year for point guard prospects, so the onus is on Fox to prove why he’s better than the other three guys that will also be top picks.
Markelle Fultz put up incredible numbers this season. There’s no doubt about that. Offensively, he looks unstoppable, and that’s the primary reason why he will likely be the first pick in the draft. However, there is something to be said for the fact that he only won nine games. A year removed from a 19-win season, the Huskies suffered a ten game drop-off with the supposed best prospect in college basketball, not to mention a 13-game losing skid to end the season. Does that scream NBA superstar? And one can pin all the blame on the lack of talent around Fultz, but Fultz often looked like he was playing at half-speed. He looked lazy, not running back on defense or closing out on shooters, and often struggling to even get in a defensive stance. Fox is the exact opposite, the quintessential hustle player who gives 100% every time he steps on the floor and challenges his opponent. That’s too often overlooked in this draft process.
We’ve all heard the Lonzo Ball narrative by now, probably out of his father’s mouth, and while Ball will have a bright future in the NBA, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he was flat out dominated by Fox. Ball was locked up offensively, finishing with only ten points and shooting 1-6 from three, again a testament to how well Fox defends even 25 feet from the basket. On the other side of the ball it was even worse, with Fox going off for 39 points in a winning effort, making Ball look silly trying to stay in front of him. Ball looked like he was phoning it in by the end, again showing that lack of drive while Fox grinded for every bucket. Skip to the 1:52 mark of the video below and see it first-hand.
Ball has one job on this play, and it’s to keep Fox from going left, his dominant side. Almost immediately, Ball is caught flat-footed, the worst thing you can do defending beyond the perimeter. Fox goes right by him, and Ball is too slow catching up and doesn’t even bother to try to challenge the shot from behind. Chalk this up to Ball being lazy or Fox just being too quick off the dribble, but either way this looked like a mismatch all night. Even in UCLA’s win over the Wildcats back in November, Fox outplayed Ball to the tune of 20 points and nine assists. It’s hard to justify Ball over Fox when Fox so obviously won the matchup both times, especially with the question marks that surround Ball.
Then there’s Dennis Smith. Most scouts have elevated Fox over Smith on their draft boards in light of Fox’s tournament play, and for good reason. Smith had a breakout year despite question marks of how he would return from a torn ACL. The problem with Smith is similar to the one with Fultz. He couldn’t win at NC State, a program that isn’t usually as bad as they were this year. He looked complacent late in the season as well. The Wolfpack dropped ten of their last eleven games, and Smith finished the year with a dud against Clemson, scoring just seven points and shooting 3-12 in a blowout loss. Smith also turns the ball over at an alarming rate and doesn’t run an offense quite like Fox can.
The bottom line with these other prospects is that they don’t come close to matching Fox’s effort. Simply put, De’Aaron Fox hates to lose. It was written all over his face after the North Carolina game. That’s the kind of competitor that a rebuilding team wants, a guy who is a leader, who will challenge his team to get better.
Too often in the NBA to people overlook winners for other factors that shouldn’t concern them. Just look at Kemba Walker, or Isaiah Thomas, or Draymond Green, even Stephen Curry. Competitors are competitors, and De’Aaron Fox couples that attitude with a unique skillset that rivals that of any guard in this draft class. Fox will still be on the board after the first few picks of this draft, and to whatever team drafts him, bravo, because he can be a cornerstone for an NBA franchise.
