Final NFL Mock Draft 2018
The NFL Draft is fast approaching, and this draft figures to be as surprising as any. It feels like a mix and match game for each quarterback-needy team to find their guy. How many quarterbacks will go in the top five? Which team will make a blockbuster trade to jump up? Nobody really knows, but here is my best estimate of how the first round of this year’s NFL Draft will play out.
1. Cleveland Browns: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
We’re just 24 hours away from the Browns officially making their selection, and still nobody knows who they’re leaning towards at quarterback. Throughout the entire process, the decision seems to have come down to Darnold and Josh Allen, with some recent Baker Mayfield buzz. The Browns like Allen, but it will be hard for Dorsey to pull the trigger based on upside alone. Darnold is the more polished, sure thing, and he might be the guy to finally end the quarterback carousel in Cleveland.
2. New York Giants: Bradley Chubb, DE/OLB, NC State
New general manager Dave Gettleman has talked about building this team from the inside-out, and that’s exactly what he does with this selection. Barkley is in play, but for the Giants to be successful, they have to get back to their roots, and that’s putting pressure on the quarterback. Chubb is by far the best pass rusher in this draft, and paired with Olivier Vernon, the Giants could have a nightmare pass-rush duo reminiscent of the tandems they had during their Super Bowl days. The difference here is that New York is switching to a 3-4 defense. Chubb played 4-3 defensive end in college, but has shown the ability to stand up and rush in a 3-4.
3. New York Jets: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Mike Maccagnan loves Mayfield, and it’s hard to believe that all these visits and meetings are just smokescreens. His first day of the offseason was spent in Norman, Oklahoma. Mayfield is the most accurate quarterback in the draft, and sported the top QBR in college football in both of the past two seasons. Combine that with his strong leadership skills and a knack for flat-out winning football games and the Jets have their quarterback of the future. Size might worry some, but Mayfield spent his college career throwing over tall lineman, including 6’8 Orlando Brown, so it shouldn’t be much of a concern here.
4. (TRADE) Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
The Bills would give an arm and a leg to move up in this draft for their guy, and that’s exactly what they have to do here, giving up their two first round picks as well as next year’s second. General manager Brandon Beane wants a big quarterback with a strong arm that can whip the ball through the cold winds of Buffalo, and there is no one who fits the bill more than Allen. Buffalo acquired A.J. McCarron this offseason, and McCarron will likely start the entire season for this team. Allen is simply nowhere near ready to step on an NFL field yet, and is a project quarterback in every sense of the word, but he provides tremendous upside. Buffalo won’t hesitate to jump up and nab him if he’s still here at four.
5. Denver Broncos: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
John Elway has a surprisingly poor record of drafting quarterbacks, and three are already off the board, so he’ll stick with the best player available. That’s Saquon Barkley, who also happens to fill a glaring hole in Denver’s offense. The Broncos only have two running backs on the roster in Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Harrison, and the two have combined for just 260 career carries. Case Keenum thrived in Minnesota with a strong running game, and he’ll need one in Denver as well. Barkley solves those problems, and can immediately be one of the best running backs in the game from his first snap.
6. Indianapolis Colts: Quentin Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
Indy probably hoped that it could still get its hands on Chubb or Barkley after moving down to six, but both are gone here, and Nelson is the clear best player on the board. A healthy Andrew Luck gives the Colts a chance to contend for the division, but he can’t stay healthy when he’s on his back all the time. Nelson helps thwart an interior pass rush that is as strong in the AFC South as it is in any division in football. Without a potential all-pro guard, Malik Jackson, JJ Watt, and Jurrell Casey will terrorize opposing quarterbacks up the middle. Nelson can go toe-to-toe with those guys and win on a weekly basis, which is why he’s one of the highest-touted guard prospects in the history of this draft.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Derwin James, S, Florida State
The Buccaneers ranked dead last in the league in pass defense last season. They addressed this problem on the front end, acquiring Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry to boost their pass rush, and now it’s time to fix it on the back end. Derwin James is a do-it-all defensive back who can play anywhere in the secondary, but he’ll likely be playing deep safety for Tampa. The Bucs have run a lot of Cover 4, because they lack that safety with the athleticism to hold his own in centerfield, and they’ve fallen prey to the short-intermediate passing game as a result. James has 4.4 speed and an excellent nose for the ball, making him fully comfortable to be that last line of defense, which can be a catalyst for this entire defense.
8. Chicago Bears: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
Edmunds is a raw prospect. Like, really raw. He’s only 19 years old on draft day, but he’s 6’5 and 253 pounds with 4.5 speed. With a great defensive coordinator, he can skyrocket and be the anchor of an NFL defense for years. Vic Fangio is that great defensive coordinator who can unleash Edmunds potential. In Fangio’s 3-4 defense, Edmunds will get the opportunity to learn alongside Danny Trevathan, and that tandem would create an elite linebacking corps, mimicking the one that lead the Bears to the Super Bowl nearly a decade ago. The Bears reportedly love Edmunds, and if he’s still here at eight, this will probably be the selection.
9. San Francisco 49ers: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The 49ers need to upgrade at linebacker, especially in light of Reuben Foster’s charges. If Foster is found guilty, he’ll be cut, leaving a major hole in the middle of the 49er defense. Smith doesn’t exactly replace Foster, but he is a huge upgrade at strong outside linebacker. Smith struggles to take on blocks, but for a defense with a powerful front four, sticking him outside where he can roam the field and make plays can work wonders for San Francisco. The 49ers would love Edmunds to fill that inside linebacker spot, but they’ll settle for the more polished product in Smith to make an instant impact.
10. (TRADE) Arizona Cardinals: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The Cardinals spoil Miami’s plans by leaping just ahead of them to nab their quarterback of the future. Arizona has no reliability at the quarterback position, and Rosen is the perfect quarterback for them because he is probably the most NFL-ready. This might come into play mid-season given Sam Bradford’s injury history. Rosen takes a minor dip on draft day due to his concussions and perceived character issues, but he is mechanically perfect and can fit balls into tight windows, a must in a division that features corners like Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Richard Sherman. This is a draft day dream for Steve Keim and his team.
11. Miami Dolphins: Vita Vea, DT, Washington
Miami was likely salivating at the idea of Rosen falling to 11, but with the top four quarterbacks on the board, Adam Gase will likely take one more year to feel out Ryan Tannehill’s future with the team. Miami now has to turn its focus to the defensive side of the ball, where the loss of Ndamukong Suh leaves a massive hole on the interior defensive line. That massive hole is filled with an even more massive man in Vea. Vea, who anchored an elite Washington defense in college, is the perfect run stopper, and can eat up double teams in the middle, setting the tone for the rest of this defense.
12. (TRADE) Cleveland Browns: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
John Dorsey looks like a genius here. The Browns move back eight spots and still get one of the top guys on their board in Fitzpatrick. Like Derwin James, Fitzpatrick is a swiss army knife in the secondary. He doesn’t figure to play on the outside in the NFL, but he’s an excellent slot corner with the speed to play free safety, which is his most likely spot. Combined with Jabrill Peppers, this makes up a dynamite secondary that now allows Peppers to play in his more natural position closer to the line of scrimmage. Fitzpatrick has fluid hips and can track throws to the numbers from centerfield, making him the perfect selection here for Cleveland.
13. Washington Redskins: Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
The prevailing sentiment among NFL executives is that Denzel Ward is the top corner in this draft, but Jackson is an infinitely better scheme fit in Washington. Greg Manusky runs more of a zone coverage scheme, which Jackson excelled in at Iowa, and he can be a perfect fit at boundary corner opposite Josh Norman. In a game filled with scouts looking at corner prospects this past season, Jackson picked off Ohio State quarterback JT Barrett three times. He followed it up with two pick sixes the next week against Wisconsin, and he made Josh Allen look silly week one, picking him off. Jackson has a nose for the ball and would fit perfectly in Manusky’s defense.
14. Green Bay Packers: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
This is a bit of a dip for Ward, but the Packers waste no time grabbing him at 14. Green Bay is in desperate need of a corner, as this pass defense has been holding them back from a Super Bowl for years. This offseason didn’t help things, as they shipped Damarious Randall to Cleveland. Denzel Ward can finally be the answer at corner. He stands a little short at 5’10, but his 4.3 speed allows him to stay with receivers on sharp routes. His strength comes in guarding smaller receivers, which should bode well for him in a division where he’ll see Golden Tate and Stefon Diggs twice a year.
15. (TRADE) Oakland Raiders: Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College
With Edmunds and Smith off the board, the Raiders slide down a few spots and pick up two third-rounders in the process. Oakland could opt to go corner, but Rashaan Melvin had by far his best season last year for the Colts, and the Raiders picked him up on a one-year deal to start opposite Gareon Conley. Gruden would love a pass rush duo in Landry and Khalil Mack that could replicate Denver’s duo of Miller and Ware that dominated the division just a couple years back. Landry models his game after Mack, and it shows with an elite bend in his pass rush that really puts pressure on tackles to lower their base. In his sophomore and junior seasons, he accumulated 110 tackles, 38 for loss, 20 sacks, and 10 forced fumbles. An ankle injury hindered his production his senior year, but if Landry can return to form, he can be a force to be reckoned with in Oakland.
16. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Davenport, DE, UT-San Antonio
This is Ozzie Newsome’s last draft at the helm, and don’t expect anything different from him. Newsome has made a living off drafting the best player available, and Marcus Davenport is that player at pick number 16. Davenport didn’t crack the national radar until his performance against Texas A&M, where the small school product from San Antonio tallied 11 tackles, 1.5 for loss, and a sack. Davenport’s versatility as a pass rusher will help him in Baltimore, as he showed the ability to rush the passer from a four-point stance and from his feet, and he’ll get the chance to learn from Terrell Suggs for the first couple years of his career.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
You might remember Da’Ron Payne for his interception against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. Or you might remember him for his touchdown catch just seven plays later in that same game. Graceful as he may be, Payne likely won’t be catching touchdowns in the NFL, but he will be anchoring a Chargers’ defensive line that really struggled against the run last season, to the tune of second-to-last in the NFL. Payne showed the ability to be an elite run stopper for the Crimson Tide, when his team shut down the likes of Derrius Guice and Nick Chubb, so he’ll be too tough to pass up on draft day for Los Angeles.
18. Seattle Seahawks: Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
This is Seattle’s only pick in the first three and a half rounds of this draft, so don’t be surprised if they look to trade down here. For now, however, Oliver is the pick, and he’ll fit right in with this secondary. A decathlete for the University of Colorado, Oliver possesses plus size and athleticism at the corner position. He’s a more physical corner than Jackson and Ward, which has been the blueprint in Seattle for years, and is missing now with the loss of Sherman. Oliver has tremendous ball skills, and his 33.5 inch arms allow him to be within range of breaking up passes even when he’s a step or two late. Seattle might be going through a rebuild, but they’ll still look for their next cornerback of the future.
19. Dallas Cowboys: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
This is a weaker receiver class than usual, but the first receiver finally comes off the board at number 19, and he couldn’t come to a more receiver-needy team. Dallas got rid of Dez Bryant, which cleared cap space, but it also left Allen Hurns and Cole Beasley as the team’s most reliable receiving threats. Dallas will almost certainly go receiver in the first round, and will likely take Ridley if he is available. Ridley is cut in a different mold from Bryant, which should benefit Dak Prescott’s development. Too often the offense saw Prescott trying to force feed Bryant when he wasn’t open, leading to the second lowest catch rating in the league for a receiver on balls thrown his way. Ridley is a deep threat and an excellent route runner who should give Prescott ample throwing lanes in the future.
20. Detroit Lions: Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP
It’s pretty well-documented that the Lions haven’t had a player rush for 100 yards in a game since Reggie Bush did so on Thanksgiving of 2013. Weak running back groups are a large reason why, but the interior offensive line certainly isn’t helping. Detroit needs to bolster its line before acquiring a running back to finally break that streak and give Matthew Stafford a little bit of help. As good as Quenton Nelson is as a pass protector, Hernandez might be the best run blocker in this draft. He can fill right in and be a starter at left guard on day one. Some may be concerned about Hernandez’s height and shorter arms, but his power and balance in holding his blocks make him a first-round prospect worthy of this selection.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
This will be the sexiest pick of the first round, and it might just stop Bengals fans for yelling at ownership for extending Marvin Lewis’s contract again. The Lewis-Dalton era in Cincinnati started strong, but now it looks like a disaster, and this team is on the downhill. Enter Lamar Jackson, who can immediately reignite both the offense and the faith in the organization. Jackson is still far away from starting for an NFL team, so the Bengals can continue to start Dalton until he’s ready. Jackson has tremendous upside, and draws comparisons to Michael Vick. If he can work on his mechanics, he has the potential to be special as a passer and a runner, and Cincinnati has shown great interest in him throughout this process.
22. (TRADE) Cleveland Browns: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
With Sam Darnold ready to become the quarterback of the future in Cleveland, the Browns need to invest in protecting him, and that starts with the tackle position. Hall of Fame left tackle Joe Thomas retired this offseason, leaving big shoes to fill at what could be the turning point for this franchise. Most scouts view McGlinchey as the best tackle in this draft, and the Browns scoop him up later than they probably thought they could. McGlinchey was exposed a little bit in the Miami game, but the rest of his tape is stellar. He’s an advanced student of the game with plus athleticism at the tackle spot. In his first draft with the Cleveland Browns, Dorsey has the potential to strike gold with these three selections.
23. New England Patriots: Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
McGlinchey would likely have been the pick had the Browns passed on him, but the Patriots can now afford to wait until their second pick to draft Nate Solder’s replacement. With their first pick, they can look to strengthen their linebacking corps. The Patriots only have two reliable linebackers on the roster in Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower, and Vander Esch can slide into that third spot with ease. He is built in the mold of a bigger Lavonte David, with the speed and pursuit to be the leading tackler from the strong outside linebacker position. And if there’s anything that Belichick loves on the defensive side of the ball, it’s sure tacklers.
24. Carolina Panthers: Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
Carolina’s needs help at corner. Since the loss of Josh Norman, this pass defense has struggled to defend, and doesn’t force turnovers. The Panthers intercepted just ten passes last year, sixth worst in the NFL, and they were greatly exposed by Brees in the playoffs. James Bradbury has held his own, but when 6 out of 16 games are against Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and Julio Jones, you can never have enough help at corner. Alexander lacks prototypical size, but he’s extremely tough and rarely gets beat. He’ll fit right into Carolina’s Tampa 2 defense.
25. Tennessee Titans: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
Avery Williamson had a standout season for the Titans, but Tennessee couldn’t outbid the Jets for him. Now he leaves a void in the middle of a surging Titans defense, and Evans fills that void perfectly. Evans is the latest in a long line of highly touted Alabama middle linebackers, and he is an extremely safe pick because of it. However, he has the ability to do what Williamson never really could for Tennessee: cover. Evans showed prowess guarding guys out of the backfield, and even held his own against tight ends and slot receivers. He has extremely desirable closing speed for a middle linebacker, and he can be the focal point of a Tennessee defense that hopes to be a playoff mainstay.
26. Atlanta Falcons: Taven Bryan, DE/DT, Florida
The Falcons reportedly love Bryan, and likely would not hesitate to take him should he be available at 26. It’s easy to see why. Bryan has the ability to apply pressure on both the inside and on the edge. He lived as a 3-technique at Florida, but has the speed to live on the outside on early downs. On passing downs, kick him back inside to that 3-technique spot and he can still be effective getting to the quarterback. He’s like a poor man’s JJ Watt or Michael Bennett in that respect. Atlanta has a more dangerous defense than people realize, and Bryan could solidify this defense as one of the best in the NFC.
27. New Orleans Saints: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
It feels weird to not have that Drew Brees to tight end combination that we’ve become so accustomed to throughout his tenure in the league, and this is the perfect spot to rejuvenate that connection. Hurst was an enigma at South Carolina, excelling as a football player after a failed baseball career. He is a capable blocker that can spring holes for Ingram and Kamara, and he has really excelled in the passing game, where he can expose defenses in the NFC South. Carolina and Tampa Bay play bend-don’t-break defenses in the form of Tampa 2 and Cover 3, which is what allowed Kamara to have such success in certain instances over the middle. Hurst make a living camped out in the middle of that zone, further diversifying an already elite New Orleans offense.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
Unlike James and Fitzpatrick, Reid is more of a traditional safety. He combines 4.4 speed that allows him to roam the center of the field with a 210-pound frame that makes him dangerous at the point of attack. Pittsburgh knows what that looks like in the form of Troy Polamalu, but this team needs Reid more for his deep ball coverage than anything else. The Steelers can no longer rely on Mike Mitchell over the top, and if they ever want to get past New England, they’ll have to have that presence at the safety position. Reid is a master of the position, credited in part to the fact that his brother is Eric Reid, a former first-round pick who has played the position for years. There is a lot of speculation that Pittsburgh might move up for Lamar Jackson, but in what might be Big Ben’s final run at knocking off New England, the Steelers can ill afford to not fill an immediate need with their first round pick.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars: Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
This one is a no-brainer. Jacksonville just extended Blake Bortles to a three-year deal, and if there’s any hope of him succeeding, he’ll need a legitimate number one receiver. Right now, Keelan Cole is the best they’ve got, and while he showed flashes of brilliance, he is far from a number one. Sutton will work to replace both Robinson and Hurns, giving Bortles a legitimate red zone threat who can go up and get jump balls. Sutton’s 4.54 40-time drew concerns, but his open field speed just feels faster than that, and his 2331 yards with 22 touchdowns over the past two seasons are undeniable.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
Wynn played tackle for Georgia, but by all accounts, he’ll be a guard in the pros. And he’ll face a tall task in his rookie season. People forget that Kirk Cousins isn’t the only fresh face in the Minnesota backfield. Dalvin Cook is coming back from injury, and it’s vital to Minnesota’s success to protect both of those guys. The Vikings suffered virtually no losses on defense, and with the addition of Cousins, there aren’t many weaknesses on the entire roster, so general manager Rick Spielman can afford to continue bolstering that offensive line.
31. New England Patriots: Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA
Now the Patriots can fill that gap at left tackle, and they can do it with a virtual clone of Nate Solder. Miller stands at 6’9 and weighs 310 pounds, with giant hands that latch on to the pads of defensive ends. If the Patriots stay at 31, they almost have to take a tackle, but they’ve shown a proclivity toward trading down into the later rounds, which they very well might do here, especially if they’re still looking for Brady’s replacement. If they don’t, however, Miller could be the guy, and he’s the most polished prospect ready to protect Brady right away.
32. (TRADE) Cincinnati Bengals: Frank Ragnow, OG/C, Arkansas
Philly seems destined to trade out of this spot for more picks, as they don’t pick again until the tail end of the fourth round. Cincinnati can take advantage, jumping back into the first round to get their guy. If the Bengals do go with Jackson with their first pick, they’ll be passing up their biggest need in interior offensive line, and with the way guards have been going in this draft, they can’t afford to sit back and wait. The Bengals need help at guard and center, and Ragnow, who has been getting a ton of first round hype lately, can play either.
