NBA Playoffs: Second Round Preview/Predictions
The NBA's elite eight remain after the first round. For those keeping score, only one series (Jazz/Clippers) was picked incorrectly. Let's take a look at the second round.
Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz
I’m sure those rooting against the Warriors were highly pissed when they saw them winning without Kevin Durant, Shaun Livingston, Matt Barnes and even Steve Kerr. It was like a reality set in on the basketball world; a healthy Warriors team will be a tough out. And with the Jazz and Clippers going seven games, the Warriors get even more time to rest and regroup. Kerr’s absence will be felt, but remember that the Warriors culture is pretty much set. Offensively they will share the ball and get the best possible shot. Defensively, they’re underrated and could be unstoppable when they play to their full potential.
The Jazz enter the series as the clear underdog, but a very capable team. Now they did capitalize on an injured Clippers team, but then again the Clippers were prone to postseason mishaps anyway. Let’s focus on the fact that the Jazz have very deceptive depth and will have the advantage in the paint. They also sport the second best defense overall to the Warriors, but are just average against the three. Their slow pace and grind it out style helps simply because it cuts the amount of time their opponent has the ball. Their three-point defense is concerning because average might not get it done against the Warriors. Their size in the paint should give the Warriors problems via offensive rebounds. On the other end, Rudy Gobert’s shot blocking won’t have as much impact against a jump shooting team. The Jazz offense concerns me most of all. The Warriors defense is no slouch and the Jazz failed to score at least 100 points in two of three games against them. Even if their defense comes to play, they’ll need a minimum 105 points to win. What I do want to see is what happens in close games. We know Joe Johnson can close, but who closes for the Warriors?
Prediction: Warriors in 6.
Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards
I don’t like throwing around the ‘rivalry’ tag so recklessly, so I’ll just say these two teams aren’t too fond of one another. They’ve had plenty of ‘hold me back’ moments and stare downs this season alone. The Celtics just finished off a very strange series that saw them only win one home playoff game. You could make the argument that they wouldn’t even be here if Rajon Rondo hadn’t got hurt. So in my eyes, they’re still a vulnerable top seed. Their highs and lows are almost overtly dependent on their leader Isiah Thomas. If he has it going, the team will feed off of that and they’ll be tough to beat. If not, they’re likely going down. Against the Wizards this season, Thomas only had one good game (a 38-point outing) against Washington. Every other game he didn’t play all that well. Fortunately, the Celtics have the necessary depth and matchups to guard the Wizards.
Speaking of the Wizards, they have problems of their own entering this series. The Celtics can guard them on the wings while the Wizards don’t have an overwhelming advantage down low (though the Celtics can be pushed around in the paint). So I’ll need to see more out of their bigs to provide a needed balance. For the Wizards it’s quite simple; their wing players have to win their matchups to win the series. That means getting it done on both sides of the ball. The Wizards cannot afford any lapses like they had against the Hawks.
Prediction: Wizards in 7
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets
Kind of hard to believe it’s been 20 years since these organizations faced off in the playoffs. James Harden has faced the Spurs before with his previous team and Mike D’Antoni knows all to well what the Spurs are capable of in the postseason. Coming off of their five-game advancement over the Thunder, the Rockets actually have a lot of things to improve on. James Harden for one wasn’t a world beater in the first round. He shot 41% from the field and just 24% from three. When Harden was on the floor at the same time as Russell Westbrook, the Rockets were outscored. It was the depth of the Rockets that led them to their victory over OKC. Now Harden will be seeing a lot of Kawhi Leonard in this series and he will need the help of his supporting cast once again. Tony Parker, Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili are defensive liabilities for the Spurs. So if Leonard is focused on Harden specifically, it will be up to guys like Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, NeNe and Patrick Beverly to be ready to contribute. So from a wide view, the Rockets actually have a great chance at winning this series.
The Spurs have the benefit of having the most consistent player going in the Western Conference. Leonard has been the very definition of what a superstar player is. However he to will have to get more from his supporting cast. First player that comes to mind is LaMarcus Aldridge. He was often missing in their first round matchup against the Grizzlies. He was supposed to be the heir to Tim Duncan’s post and needs to start playing like it soon. Not to mention the Spurs have troubles containing athletic big men. Clint Capela could become an issue. Another thing the Spurs have to be weary of is their matchups. Yes Leonard is a great defender, but Harden actually wasn’t shut down when guarded by him. If you average out Harden’s stats per 36 minutes while being guarded by Leonard, he went for 26 points and 11 assist. That matchup aside, Tony Parker will have to play a lot more defense this series. He’ll be seeing a lot of Patrick Beverly or Eric Gordon. So ultimately, this may turn into a shootout if the Spurs can’t figure out a way to use their scheme to cover their weaknesses. But with the best coach and player in the series, it’s hard to bet against them.
Prediction: Rockets in 7
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors
The most improved between these two from last year’s Eastern Conference Finals is actually Toronto. They’re healthier and have improved their depth and their defense. So I’m going to say something mirroring what I said about the Bulls back in 2015. If they want to beat LeBron in his prime, this is their best chance. Now as crazy as that sounds consider this: the Raptors matchup better this year than last year. Serge Ibaka can guard Kevin Love no matter where he goes. A healthy Jonas Valanciunas can help on the glass while Norman Powell can be used in smaller lineups as the center to provide energy. The Raptors can throw DeMarre Carrol and PJ Tucker at LeBron. It won’t help, but it’s better than anyone else in the East. Then you have perhaps the best backcourt in the East with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. This is as good as it gets from them. The Raptors keys to victory are few and simple. First things first, DeRozan and Lowry need to be a force this series. They’re prone to playoff disappearing acts, but that cannot happen anymore. One of them has to become the second best player in this series. Secondly, their defense needs to be perfect. While it’s improved, the Cavs offense is lethal. They need to find a way to keep them under 110 points. And finally, they need to attack the Cavs weak defense. They do that and maybe they can win, but don't count on it.
The Cavaliers still have a ways to go if you ask me. Yes they swept the Pacers, but every game was close and their defense was subpar every time. Fortunately when you have LeBron James on your roster, your weaknesses don’t really matter. Then you have Kyrie Irving who is usually the second best player in every series the Cavs play. Cleveland in the East is very easy to prognosticate. You don’t have to look at the stats or anything else. They will overwhelm their opponent with LeBron and offensive firepower. Even with their defense playing poorly it won’t matter. As long as LeBron doesn't decide to return to his home planet in the middle of the series, they’re winning and there’s nothing Toronto can do about that.
Prediction: Cavs in 5
