How Ty Lawson Helps Houston
New Rockets Point Guard, Ty Lawson
The Ty Lawson saga is finally over. Lawson has seemingly been on the trade block for years, and he was finally shipped off to the Houston Rockets this weekend (hopefully he didn't drive himself...too soon?). Lawson's off-court struggles aside, he is actually a very good NBA player, and he gives the Rockets something they desperately need: a second ballhandler.
Houston's dependency on Harden this season was alarming. He seemed to be the only player the Rockets trusted to handle the ball, and I can't really blame them. Harden had a great season, and he led Houston deep into the playoffs, but the wear-and-tear of handling the ball on every possession took a visible toll on him, particularly in the post-season. As the playoffs wore on, Harden seemed to get sloppier with the ball. He had the worst turnover percentage of his career during the Rockets playoff run (17.1%) and he set the records for most turnovers in a playoff game (13) and for most times dribbling the ball off the back of your own foot in any game (approximately 547**). Lawson gives the Rockets a real point guard, which allows Harden to play more off the ball, instead of acting as both the shooting guard and point guard for the Rockets.
Is there going to be a "big three" in Houston now? Well, no, but it sounded good.
Houston's starting point guards averaged the fewest assists per game in the league, which meant that Harden had to be the primary scorer and playmaker. Lawson changes that. He averaged 9.6 assists per game last year, and the up-tempo style the Rockets play should fit nicely with Lawson's game. I don't expect him to average 9 assists per game, because Harden will still be a playmaker, but Lawson should average 6-7 assists, and that production will give the Houston offense another layer beyond "give James Harden the basketball" or "let Dwight Howard pretend he has a post game". Lawson is already experienced in running the pick and roll with an atheltic big (Faried in Denver), and should be able to get Dwight Howard some easy buckets as a result.
Lawson's main value needs to come from his playmaking in order for this deal to be a resounding success. While Lawson is a decent to capable scorer and shooter, he isn't much of an upgrade in that department over the combination of Patrick Beverley and Jason Terry, meaning that he becomes redundant if his main focus is scoring. Lawson is certainly a better playmaker and ballhandler than either of the two encumbent point guards in Houston, and as long as he recognizes that his job is to set his teammates up for open shots, he should add a boost to an already potent offense.
Kevin McHale has some tough decisions to make in Houston.
The biggest question mark surrounding Lawson's fit in Houston is his defense. The good news? He and Beverley complement each other nicely on that end. The bad news? They complement each other because Beverley is good and Lawson is not. Which is going to force Kevin McHale to make some tough decisions about who he's going to start. Do you start Beverley for his defense, because you know you need someone to stop all the good point guards in the league? Do you start Lawson for his playmaking, because you know you need someone aside from Harden to handle the ball? Or do you start Terry, because you know you need a bald person in the starting lineup?
I'd probably start Beverley if I were McHale, bring Lawson in as a sixth man, and bring Terry in never. I think that Beverley's defense has more value with the first unit, against starting point guards. Lawson's playmaking, by comparison, should be able to make the second unit better by getting them open shots, and playing a sixth man role allows Lawson to have the ball in his hands more. Houston may even experiment with a super small ball lineup of Lawson, Beverley, Harden, Ariza, and Howard. Those five would be devastating in transition and shooting the three, while also having three strong defenders in Beverley, Ariza, and Howard. The trouble with that lineup would be hiding Lawson, assuming Beverley is on the other team's point guard. Playing Lawson anywhere else will mean he's at a huge disadvantage in size should the other team try to run their offense through Lawson's man. I still believe the pros of this lineup outweigh the cons, but we will see if McHale agrees (I tried texting him my ideas, but he never responded, also, I didn't know his phone number).
Overall, I like this trade for Houston. It was a low risk, high reward maneuver, which are Darryl Morey's favorite kind. The Rockets didn't have to give up very much for Lawson, but if he gets his off-court problems under control, and he buys into being primarily a playmaker, this deal could push Houston into the upper echelon in the west. As it stands, I still like the Spurs and Warriors better than the Rockets, but I think they're in that next group with the Thunder and Clippers. If everything goes according to plan, Harden should have a more efficient season, the Rockets should have more depth, and Houston could very well make the conference finals.
*All stats from basketball-reference.com
**Except this one.
