Nov. 22, 2017
NFL Week 11 Picks: Fabulous 5
Welcome back for another week of The Fabulous 5 NFL picks against the Las Vegas Spread! As Week 10 came to an end, we finished the week flat at a 2-2-1 push. Not losing is a win in this business, but we can do better. But don't blame me, blame the Jaguars for being dumb and not capitalizing on their many opportunities to cover. I feel really strong about my picks this week and sense a big win streak coming.
Remember, the goal is to finish the season above 55% to be profitable. Here is a quick summary from last week along with my overall record on the season:
Week 10: (2-2-1)
Seattle Seahawks (-6) - PUSH
Chicago Bears (-5.5) - LOSS
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) - LOSS
New Orleans Saints (-3) - WIN
Atlanta Falcons (-3) - WIN
*** 2017 NFL Record: 28-20-2, 58% ***
CHICAGO BEARS (+3)
Let's try this again. Look, I know the Bears got caught snoozing on the Packers last week but they're not as bad as you might think. They've held the Saints and Vikings to just 20 points this season in very competitive games. And, they've beat the Steelers and Panthers OUTRIGHT. The Bears have battled with the best of them and now drawl back-to-back home games after last week's hiccup. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home and welcome in an overrated Lions' team who almost gave Cleveland their first win. The Lions have not had much issue moving the ball on offense, but punching it into the endzone has been a bit of a problem. The Lions rank 24th in the league in red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only). On the season, the Lions are scoring a touchdown inside the red zone 50% of the time. In their last 3 games, that percentage has dropped to only 36%! I like the Bears in this spot to win the game outright. Take Daaaaaaa Bears with the points!
NEW YORK GIANTS (+10.5)
The Giants are a mess on the field and off, and now they welcome in the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs. I know the Giants are bad but I simply think this line is too big for a home team. Kansas City is no doubt a good football team, but I'd argue they're slightly overrated. The Chiefs defense is statistically one of the worst in the league. On defense, KC ranks in the bottom four in yards per game AND yards per play against opponents. KC also ranks 29th against the run and 28th against the pass this season. 10.5 points is a lot for a team at home against a bad defense. The backdoor will always be open in this game, I'll take the G-Men with the double-digit points!
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+7.5)
Picking Cleveland is never fun but here they are and here we go! Last week was the first week I watched the Browns play and they actually looked like an NFL team on offense. But, this isn't the reason why I like them. The real reason is every Jacksonville strength plays right into Cleveland's hand. The Jaguars are good at running the ball and the Browns happen to rank 4th in the league against the rush. If the Browns can take away Jacksonville's greatest strength and force QB Blake Bortles to beat them through the air, the Jags are in for a long day. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland can run the ball slightly better than an average team and the Jags rank 25th against the rush on defense. After seeing Bortles almost cost his team a win with a very late and unnecessary interception last week, I'll take my chances with Kizer. The return of WR Corey Coleman should help the offense but he'll face a very stout passing defense in Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Jags RB Leonard Fournette is also questionable and looks like he'll be missing the game, making this an even better pick. Take the Brownies at home!
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5)
The Denver Broncos are a hot steaming pile of you know what and I'm over it. The only good thing about that team is WR Emmanuel Sanders and they play in an awesome city. The perception of them having a good defense is all but a mirage. Over their last three games, the Broncos defense ranks outside the top 20 in yards per game, yards per play, passing and rushing yards. If that wasn't bad enough, the Broncos are dead LAST in the turnover margin per game. This doesn't bode well for Mr. Brock Osweiler because Cincinnati also happens to rank second in yards per play against opponents on defense. They're actually tied for second with the Minnesota Vikings! I think Denver's been punched in the mouth one-too-many times and it's about to get uglier in Mile High. Take the jungle cats with the points and let the Red Rifle do you some good!
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+7)
The Oakland Raiders are coming off their bye week and should be rested up and prepared as they travel to Mexico City, a venue they're familiar with. Last year the Raiders "hosted" the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20, so there's shouldn't be any bad juju for Oakland down south. The Problem is, they welcome in Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Sounds scary but let's not overreact to their blow out win against Denver on national TV last week. Remember, Denver is a steaming pile of you know what like I just mentioned above. The Patriots also got a free 14 points to start that game as things got out of hand quickly. Let's also not forget about all the other close games the Patriots have battled out. No doubt the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender, but I'm not sold on them being the juggernaut they've advertised themselves to be last week. I think this is a HUGE overreaction by the public and I fully expect this Raiders team to fight to the end against a defense that still ranks DEAD LAST in the league. Just win baby!