NFL Week 5 Picks: Fabulous 5
Welcome back for another week of the Fabulous 5! An unbelievable backdoor cover by the Kansas City Chiefs with 4 seconds left prevents an amazing 4-1 week. Nonetheless, we finish with another 3-2 winning week! Don't forget, the goal is to hit around a 55% succession rate. 55% is what professionals aim for to actually make a living. As we reach the quarter pole of the Fabulous 5, we're sitting exactly at 55%! A Golden Tate touchdown and Kansas City backdoor away from a winning percentage of 65%! Here are last week's results and winning percentage on the year:
Week 4 (3-2, 60%)
Los Angeles Rams +6.5 - WIN
New York Jets +3 - WIN
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 - LOSS
Denver Broncos -3 - WIN
Washington Redskins +7 - LOSS (Backdoor)
*** Year-to-date Record: 11-9, 55% ***
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3)
The Buffalo Bills stroll into town coming off a thrilling upset over the Atlanta Falcons and are somehow 3-point underdogs?! This line tells me everything I need to know. Ever since new Bills offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has taken over, QB Andy Dalton has thrown 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the last two games. Maybe the Bengals were stuck in preseason mode the first two weeks and are finally hitting their stride. I like Cincinnati's home field and I think Buffalo is primed for a letdown coming off an emotional win. The Bills are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games after winning as an underdog. Take the Bengals!
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+8)
The Jaguars are coming off a disappointing loss to the Jets and now travel to the steel city to take on Big Ben and the Steelers. I'm not so sure what to make of this Steelers team this season. After reviewing their schedule, they really haven't played anyone all that impressing. They beat the Browns, a Sam Bradford-less Vikings, and a bad Ravens' team. Shockingly, their only loss on the season came from the Chicago Bears. People want to talk about how good their defense is this season but I'm not so sure it's been truly tested yet. Look for the Steelers to try to beat the Jags on the ground with RB Le'Veon Bell. The Jaguars are allowing an NFL-worst 165.5 rushing yards per game, but are allowing an NFL-best 147 passing yards per game. Bell finally got going last week against the Ravens so this scares me a bit but if the Jags can figure out a way to contain him, I like their chances to cover the spread. Scary pick (and least favorite), but I'm taking the Jags!
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-1)
The Rams are for real. I know, I know, they started 3-1 last season too but this is different. I'm a firm believer in head coach Sean McVay and what he's done with the team so far. The Rams seem to have Seattle's card as they've owned Seattle at home even when they were considered one of the worse teams in the NFL. Under better leadership, why would this trend stop now? The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs the Rams. Until the NFL figures out what the Rams are doing, continue to ride them while their hot. Lay the points, take the Rams!
DALLAS COWBOYS (-2)
The Cowboys drawl back-to-back home games and welcome in Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. I like the Cowboys in this spot as a revenge game after the Packers knocked them out of the playoffs in Jerry's World last season. The Packers have played well at home but on the road has been another story. They're a mere 5-15 straight up in their last 20 games as road underdogs. Green Bay's offensive line is still struggling with injuries and Dallas leads the league in pressuring the quarterback. Rodgers is mobile enough to probably avoid a lot of it but being a one-dimensional offense, I like Dallas' chances in this game. How 'bout dem Cowboys?!
HOUSTON TEXANS (+1.5)
The new-look Houston Texans are clicking and firing on all cylinders ever since rookie QB Deshaun Watson has taken over. Watson was unreal last week against the Titans scoring a total of five touchdowns! It's hard to go against the Chiefs but Kansas City is vulnerable. Besides the Patriots Week 1 blowout, every other game has been close enough where it could have gone either way. The Texans are home and won't have to deal with the loud fans at Arrowhead. I love Houston in this spot to win the game OUTRIGHT giving Kansas City their first loss of the season. Take the Texans!
