NFL Week 9 Picks: Fabulous 5
Welcome back for another week of the Fabulous 5 NFL picks against the Las Vegas spread. It pains me to say that Week 8 was one of the worst week's I have ever endured since doing this. After a Thursday Night win with the Ravens, the remaining Fabulous 5 picks put up a big fat goose egg. Our winning percentage has gone from an incredible 62% and has fallen to 56% on the year. These things will happen from time to time in this business. Remember, the goal is to finish the season above 55%. Here is a quick summary from last week along with my overall record on the season:
WEEK 8: 1-4
Baltimore Ravens -3 - WIN
New Orleans Saints -9 - LOSS
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 - LOSS
Detroit Lions +3 - LOSS
Denver Broncos +7.5 - LOSS
*** 2017 NFL Record: 22-17-1, 56% ***
NEW YORK JETS (+3.5) - WIN
The Jets welcome in the Buffalo Bills for a division rematch after a 21-12 loss in Week 1. New York might be the scrappiest team in the league right behind the Chicago Bears as they come prepared and ready to throw down with anyone. Even though the Bills travel is only an hour-and-a-half plane ride, I like the Jets in this spot as they drawl back-to-back home games. Although Buffalo is quietly becoming everyone's favorite team, they are vulnerable. Both of their losses this season have been on the road to underwhelming teams. Road losses to Cincinnati and Carolina should signal red flags. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home and Buffalo was blown out 30-10 at Metlife Stadium last season. This should be a gritty, boring and sloppy Thursday Night Football game like they always are. Take the home team with the points. Jets win a close one, 23-20. J-E-T-S! JETS! JETS! JETS!
DENVER BRONCOS +7.5
After a hot start to the 2017 season, the Denver Broncos find themselves in a losing free fall. Now on a three-game losing streak, they head to Philadelphia for their third straight road game. Nothing I've said sounds great, so why in the world am I taking the Broncos? Like our Browns pick two weeks ago, the Philadelphia Eagles are now 6-2 ATS and have covered their last five games in a row. Vegas will certainly try to balance this and here is their golden opportunity. A team with their foot on the gas vs. a team slowly bleeding out. Denver's offense has been abysmal but there's two things I really like. First, Brock Osweiler is an upgrade. Sound crazy? Well it might not be. Yeah, things didn't work out for Osweiler in Houston, but the only reason he got that big contract was because of how well he played in Denver. Osweiler now returns to a system he's familiar with and guys he's played with before. Look for a major upgrade to the receiving group as well, as Emmanuel Sanders is set to return from injury. Sanders will certainly boost that offense as a whole. Lastly, with Eagles LT Jason Peters out, look for this nasty Denver Broncos' defense to get after Wentz. I think this is the first week where Peters' absences will be sorely missed as they take on the number one rated defense in the NFL. Take the Broncos with the points in this matchup. This is business baby!
LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5
My darlings are back in the spotlight and coming off a restful bye week. There's no clear advantage here because their opponents, the New York Giants, are also coming off a bye. There's actually a disadvantage because the Rams must travel all the way across the country to the east coast. The good news is, Rams head coach Sean McVay has one of the best football minds in the league. I'll take McVay with extra time to prepare against Ben McAdoo's injury ridden team any day. McVay has also spent six seasons coaching with the Redskins and is extremely familiar with how the Giant operate. The Rams simply edge out the Giants in every statistical category that matters when handicapping. Oddly, I expect this game to be a lot closer than you'd think, but lay the points and take the Rams! On to Cincinnati....
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -5
The Cincinnati Bengals take a trip down to Sacksonville where they'll meet a defense that gives up the fewest points per game in the league. The Jaguars are allowing opposing offenses an average of 16 points per game, which is not good news for Cincy. Cincy ranks 26th in the league in points per game and 30th in yards per game. With one of the worst offensive lines in the league going against a very athletic and fast Jacksonville front seven, good luck. The Bengals pass defense is pretty good but, the Jaguars are adding a secret weapon to their arsenal on offense. Rookie wide receiver Dede Westbrook returns from injury and I expect him to make an immediate impact. This guy is a straight burner, and I'm not sure Cincinnati is ready for it. It's been reported that he will have a top roll and should open things up for the offense right away. I expect the Bengals defense to give the Jags trouble early before becoming gassed late in the game from being on the field all day. Lay the points, take the Jags!
DALLAS COWBOYS PK - FAVORITE PLAY
It's hard to ever bet on the Cowboys because of their "America's Team" stigma they carry. Vegas loves Dallas because the public loves to bet them, especially when they're playing well. Nine times out of ten, I'll usually go against the Cowboys but in this case, I love them. Another beloved team, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Jerry's World on short rest. Both these teams have been playing outstanding football this season, but there's one glaring issue for cause of concern with Kansas City. The Chiefs can't stop the run. They rank 28th in the NFL, allowing an average of 131 yards per game. What do the Cowboys do best? Run the ball. Dallas happens to rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game! Look for Dallas to control the clock with their running back who is immune to suspensions. Ezekiel Elliott is a full go this game and I fully expect him to go off, keeping that Chiefs offense watching from the sidelines. Speaking of the Chiefs' offense, they happen to be facing the 13th ranked defense in the league. Dallas is no cupcake. This game may get out of hand quickly for Kansas City in a possible blowout. Take dem BOYS!
