Predicting Every 2019 Division Winner

Like it or not, the best way to make the playoffs in the NFL is to win your division. Every year some divisions have runaway winners and others are toss ups until week 17. Based on the direction of each team after the draft and free agency, we can start to see which teams are edging ahead of their competition in the race for a division title. Here are my predictions for each division winner entering training camp:

AFC East: New England Patriots

Let's start with the layup: barring a catastrophic injury or two there is no reason to believe Brady, Belichick and the Pats won't waltz to another division title. Their competition is still years away from competing with them. The Dolphins are actively tanking and are rolling into 2019 with a rookie head coach and second-year quarterback. Josh Allen would have to take a massive leap forward in year 2 to make the Bills a legit team. The Jets look like the biggest challenge to the Pats in the division; they have a young quarterback and weapons like Le'veon Bell surrounding him. The Titans of New York can't seem to get out of their own way, however. The firing of Mike MacCagnan implies that the organization is still internally unstable despite its recent influx of talent. The Pats have definitely had their losses this offseason, Rob Gronkowski chief among them. Regardless, this organization keeps running like a machine year after year and that won't change as long as Belichick is at the helm.

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

Now the takes start to get a little hotter. Could the league's perennial bottom-feeder finally overcome their division rivals and take their spot in the playoffs? There are a lot of reasons to believe they could. The Browns had perhaps the best offseason of any team, adding elite talent like Odell Beckham Jr. and Olivier Vernon. They also have a scary offense lead by the very promising Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb. Their most prominent division rivals, the Ravens and Steelers, look weaker than they have in years. Ben Roethlisberger isn't getting any younger and they lost their two best play makers for good in Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell. The Ravens obviously feel secure with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, but his accuracy is a major issue entering 2019; if opposing teams figure out how to stop their multidimensional running game the Ravens are in big trouble. And the Bengals, of course, will continue to be mediocre under Andy Dalton. This is starting to look like the Browns division to lose.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

This division is very good from top to bottom, and a legit argument can be made for any team to win it. At the end of the day, though, the Colts have a better combination of coach, quarterback, and high end talent that it takes to win a division. It's easy to forget that the Colts started 1-5 last season before going on a magical run, making the playoffs, and beating the Texans to advance to the divisional round. This year, Frank Reich will have things figured out from the beginning and Andrew Luck will continue to play at an elite level. This defense is also a lot better than most people realize, boasting a solid edge rush and secondary as well as tackling machine/ DROY Darius Leonard. The Texans are probably their biggest threat, but they still have several issues like a porous offensive line and a depleted secondary. The Titans season largely depends on the health of Marcus Mariota and backup Ryan Tannehill, both of whom have struggled with injuries. The Jaguars have a young, talented defense but Nick Foles still has to prove that he can hang as a franchise QB outside of the Eagles system. The Colts seem like the safest bet in a talented but flawed division.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

This just might be the toughest division to predict in the NFL simply because the Chargers and Chiefs are so close to one another. Ultimately I think the Chargers will have a slight edge. Both offenses are elite, but the Chargers defense boasts a superior pass rush and a better secondary. The Chiefs may also struggle if Tyreek Hill's child abuse investigation leads to an eventual multi-game suspension. As for the rest of the division, the Broncos may be a tick better than they were in 2018 but I still don't believe Joe Flacco is good enough to pull them past the two heavyweights in this division. The Raiders got markedly better through the draft and traded for Antonio Brown but they still have many holes and are several years away from contention. This is one of those divisions that may come down to a week 17 meeting, but the Chargers have the slight edge on paper.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

This division also feels like a two-team race, this time between the Cowboys and the Eagles. Both could feasibly get hot and win the division, but the Cowboys feel like a safer pick. Their offense is easier to predict as it runs through Ezekiel Elliott and their gritty offensive line. Carson Wentz, on the other hand, is one of the more concerning cases in the NFL. He never looked the same after tearing his ACL and then he missed the playoffs again with a back injury. The Eagles better pray that first round pick Andre Dillard can gel with the rest of the offensive line and keep him protected. As long as the Cowboys stick to their strengths they should be able to best their division foes. The Redskins will be better than a lot of people think, but still not good enough to contend for a playoff spot. The Giants are quickly turning into the league's new dumpster-fire and the front office appears to be in shambles under Dave Gettleman. This could very well be another division crown for Them Cowboys.

NFC North: Chicago Bears

This division is another toss up, and three out of four teams have a real shot at taking it. The Packers will likely be better after hiring a coach who actually comes up with different schemes every week. I still don't think they have enough talent around Aaron Rodgers to compete this year though. Kirk Cousins is a worse quarterback with a better team, but his performance will largely determine the standing of the Vikes. If he continues to lose against good competition as he has for his whole career they will once again fail to meet expectations. The Lions look like the worst team in the division once again, simply because they have no obvious strengths and are simply a decent-but-not-great team. That just leaves the Monsters of the Midway; There are lots of reasons to believe this team could repeat its 2018 success. Khalil Mack remains a top-two defensive player in the league and the secondary is darn good as well. Mitch Trubisky still has a lot of room for improvement, but Tarik Cohen will likely shine as a centerpiece of this offense now that Jordan Howard has been shipped out of town. This team has what it takes to grind out a division win even though the competition is fairly close.

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

This division is one of the easiest to predict in my opinion. The Saints are arguably the best team in the NFL on paper and there is a parallel universe in which they won the last two Super Bowls. Their biggest loss of the offseason was Mark Ingram, but Alvin Kamara is more than capable of being their leading rusher and backfield receiving threat. Michael Thomas is one of the most underrated players in the NFL and racks up receptions left and right. This team has no obvious weaknesses while every other team in the NFC South does. The Falcons are likely to improve on their modest 2018 season and may pose a challenge down the stretch. I still think Dirk Koetter has his work cut out for him trying to return this offense back to its Super Bowl form though. The Panthers season will largely depend on the health of Cam Newton's throwing shoulder, and the Bucs are just not in the same league as the Saints. It would take a small miracle or bad injury luck for the Saints to lose this division.

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams

For the final division we look at another two-team race, this one between the Seahawks and Rams. No, I do not believe the 49ers have a shot at winning the division. Jimmy Garoppolo has to return from a torn ACL and prove he can carry a team through a 16-game season. They also lack receiving options besides George Kittle and have a suspect linebacker corps and secondary. Arizona won't be the worst team in the league again but they won't be one of the best either; their offensive line is still putrid. The Seahawks will be a very good team in my opinion, but not quite good enough to wrestle this division away from the Rams. Assuming that Jared Goff can fix his Super Bowl mistakes and Todd Gurley can make it through the season on a shaky knee this team should be fine. They still have the best defensive player in football Aaron Donald and a talented secondary, both things that Seattle cannot claim any more. I expect Sean McVay to spend the remainder of the offseason scheming up ways to once again dominate defenses and get revenge for their embarrassing Super Bowl outing.