NFC Playoff Predictions
This past weekend gave fans a little bit more clarity in the NFC playoff picture, but there is still any number of scenarios that can happen with still three divisions not yet decided and five teams competing for two wild card spots. Last week we predicted the final seeding in order would go Dallas, Seattle, Atlanta, Green Bay, New York, and Detroit. Let’s take a look at what has changed in the past week.
NFC North Division Winner: This is looking increasingly more like it could be Green Bay, as we originally predicted last week. Minnesota has ruled themselves out of the division at this point, so the division will come down to Green Bay or Detroit. This division has a unique scenario where both teams control their own destiny, if they win out they win the division. Green Bay is hot and playing a struggling Minnesota this week, while Detroit takes on Dallas. The current prediction here is Green Bay wins and Detroit loses going into their week 17 matchup. With both teams going into week 17 with a chance to win the division, the guess right now is that Green Bay comes out on top.
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
NFC South Division Winner: This is also a two-horse race between Atlanta and Tampa Bay, and after an Atlanta win and Tampa Bay loss this past weekend, Atlanta has taken control for now. Both teams still face New Orleans in weeks 16 and 17 in opposite weeks. Should they finish with the same record, Tampa will have the tie breaker as a result of a better division record, but the guess here is that Atlanta holds their one game lead and wins the division.
Wild Card: As of now, New York is in full control of the first wild card spot with a two-game lead or more over the rest with only two games left. We’re going to assume New York holds on to the first wild card spot and the remaining four teams will compete for the second wild card spot. The second spot will come down to the loser of the two above mentioned division races, Minnesota, and Washington. Washington throws a wrinkle into the mix with their one tie. Minnesota needs a ton of help if they are going to make a run, so it’s looking like they will follow the 2015 Falcons and start 5-0 then miss the playoffs. For that reason, we will predict Minnesota will finish last of the contenders, and the final wild card spot will come down to the three others, in this scenario Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Washington faces Chicago and New York, so the guess is their final record will be 8-7-1. Following what was mentioned above in the division races, we will predict Detroit goes 0-2 and finishes 9-7, and Tampa goes 1-1 and also finishes 9-7. The tiebreaker between Tampa and Detroit can flip flop any number of ways depending on how the last two games go, but right now our prediction will be Detroit wins the tiebreaker by means of strength of victory. Assuming our predictions are correct, Detroit will end up with the same conference record and same record in common games, making the tie breaker strength of victory, which Detroit currently holds an advantage because of Tampa's wins vs weaker teams.
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
That said, our final predictions remain the same as last week:
1) Dallas
2) Seattle
3) Atlanta
4) Green Bay
5) New York
6) Detroit
We’ll continue to update you each week on where the playoff race stands, potential tiebreaking scenarios as they come up, and our predictions. As the AFC playoff picture is also really starting to heat up, tomorrow we will take a look at the AFC playoff picture and give our predictions. How do you think the final seeding will end up in the NFC? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics.
