What's Wrong With Duke?
The season started off with Duke as far and away the favorite to win the NCAA championship this season with the absolutely incredible recruiting class they had, along with the return of several key players. Injuries derailed the start of the season, but they still started off strong with a 12-1 record with the only loss coming to a top contender in Kansas, with several key players out, and coming down to a buzzer beater. By all means, Duke was doing what they were supposed to be doing when it came to winning. The only problem is, through the winning, Duke was facing a cupcake schedule and as they started to get healthy and the schedule started to get tougher, adversity started coming out. Fast forward to today, and Duke is 3-4 in their last 7 with Coach K out, top players not living up to the hype, and a big need at point guard. What does Duke have to do to get this thing turned around?
Getting Coach Mike Krzyzewski back from his leave of absence due to a back surgery will be the biggest first step in Duke turning things around. If anyone can get his players to start performing the way they are supposed to, it will be Coach K. Dukes issues may go beyond what Coach K can fix this season though. There is a huge need at point guard, and they aren’t going to suddenly find one on their roster. Grayson Allen is the de facto point guard right now, but he is not a true playmaker and is better at shooting guard. Aside from the fact that he is not a great playmaker, he isn’t nearly the scorer this year the way he was last year and has really struggled shooting the ball. Luke Kennard can shoot the lights out but he is not a playmaker or a point guard either. Jayson Tatum has been solid since coming back from injury, but also isn’t a playmaker. Right now Duke is only averaging 14 assists per game, with only one guy (Allen) topping 2.5.
Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
The other major issue is the top players not living up to the hype. This is something Coach K may be able to coax out of them once he comes back. Allen was a top favorite for the Wooden Award but has seen his level of play drop dramatically from last year, while also still having his serial tripping issues resurface. He is barely averaging 15 points per game this year on under 40% shooting while he was over 20 points per game last year on over 46% shooting and nearly 42% from three.
Jayson Tatum has been good but not great, and has not really looked the part of a potential top 5 pick he was touted to be. He is averaging a very respectable 16 points and 6 rebounds, but has only shot 43% from the field and 29% from three when he was supposed to be a high-level shooter. He is also turning the ball over at a high rate while assisting on less plays than turnovers.
Harry Giles has been working his way back from injury slowly, and while he has been solid and shown flashes, he hasn’t looked the part of a potential #1 overall pick. He is likely to continue to look better as he works off the rust and gets acclimated to the college game, but Duke is going to need him to look like the #1 overall pick in March if they are going to make a run.
Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
Kennard is really the only player exceeding expectations as he has been scoring nearly 20 points per game and shooting at a Golden State Warriors like clip. Amile Jefferson has also been very good averaging nearly a double double. Frank Jackson has been solid in about 24 mins per game and Matt Jones has played respectably as well. If the highly-touted stars start playing as such, this could actually be a very deep team.
Yes, Duke has been struggling, but they are certain to still factor in to March discussions. The question right now though isn’t who can beat Duke for the championship, it is can Duke make the championship? If Allen turns things around, Tatum steps up his game slightly, and Giles becomes the player Duke thought they were getting, they will still be extremely tough to beat. That would give them a true big 3 with added pieces of Kennard, Jefferson, Jackson, and Jones all complimenting them. The way it stands, the latter four are pulling their weight while the big three are yet to play as such. The coming schedule is going to be very telling, as Duke really gets into the tough part of their schedule over the last 11 games of the regular season. They face 5 teams who are currently ranked in the top 14 as they close out their schedule. If the big boys get going and Duke rolls to a 9-2 record or better, watch out come March. If they continue to struggle, the big three continues to disappoint, and they finish somewhere around 6-5, then Duke may be primed for a 5 seed and an early exit in March.
What do you think? Is Duke a contender just experiencing some growing pains, or are they pretenders? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics
